MUMBAI, Dec. 18, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)
for India increased 1.2 percent in
November to 184.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in
October and a 1.7 percent increase in September. Seven of the eight
components contributed positively to the index in November.
"Despite the broad-based strength in November's Leading Economic
Index for India, a moderation in
its six-month growth suggests that the current rate of economic
expansion is unlikely to accelerate considerably in early 2015,"
said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at
The Conference Board. "A sharp decline in industrial production
reflects India's persistently weak
manufacturing sector. In addition, economic momentum post-election
is still facing restrained fiscal conditions and vulnerable
domestic demand."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added:
"Medium-term growth prospects in India remain fairly favorable, but are likely
to fall short of popular expectations in the near term. Drastic
reforms in labor markets, taxes and foreign domestic investment are
still on the horizon. For 2015, the economy will likely grow at 5.5
percent, slightly faster than in 2014."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic
Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic
activity, increased 4.4 percent in November to 203.1 (2004 = 100),
following a 5.7 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent
increase in September. Three of the four components contributed
positively to the index in November.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators
that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven
accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a
composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying
trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®
(LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®
for India was launched in
September 2013. Plotted back to
April 1990, this index has
successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of
India. The Conference Board also
produces LEIs for Australia,
Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United
Kingdom, and the United
States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day
Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of
India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
For more information including full press release and technical
notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator
releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a
global, independent business membership and research
association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique:
To provide the world's leading organizations with the
practical knowledge they need to improve their performance
and better serve society. The Conference Board is a
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status in the United States. For additional information about The
Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website
at www.conference-board.org.
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NOTE:
Next month's release will incorporate annual
benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring
them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this
benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be
changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not
change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are
updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months.
Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are
not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the
entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the
revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be
directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark
revision. In addition, one of the components of The Conference
Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, exports of agricultural products, has
been discontinued. Beginning next month, it will no longer be
included in the India CEI. We are currently evaluating several
other components for inclusion in the India CEI. For more
information, please visit our website at
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at
indicators@conference-board.org.
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Summary Table of
Composite Economic Indexes
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2014
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6-month
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Sep
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Oct
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Nov
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May to
Nov
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Leading Economic
Index
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184.2
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182.4
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r
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184.5
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p
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Percent
Change
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1.7
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r
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-1.0
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r
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1.2
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p
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2.0
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Diffusion
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93.8
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25.0
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87.5
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87.5
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Coincident
Economic Index
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206.2
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p
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194.5
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p
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203.1
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p
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Percent
Change
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2.4
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p
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-5.7
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p
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4.4
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p
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-0.8
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Diffusion
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62.5
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12.5
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87.5
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75.0
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n.a. Not
available p Preliminary r
Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All
Rights Reserved
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SOURCE The Conference Board