By Patrick McGroarty in Lagos, Nigeria, and Heidi Vogt in Yola, Nigeria
Nigerians chose a former military dictator and anticorruption
crusader to lead Africa's top economy, after a bruising election
that raised hopes for closer relations with the U.S.--especially in
the fight against Islamist insurgency Boko Haram.
Muhammadu Buhari won 54% of 29 million votes cast over the
weekend, Nigeria's election commission said on Tuesday. President
Goodluck Jonathan, the first incumbent to lose an election since
democracy returned to the nation in 1999, won 45%. The result
reflects the government's failure to tackle the Boko Haram threat
and to spread oil wealth more equitably across a deeply divided
nation.
A peaceful transition would be a first for Nigeria and a
historic step for the continent over which it holds increasing
sway. The country's fitful democracy has suffered postelection
violence in the past--Human Rights Watch said more than 800 people
were killed after Mr. Jonathan defeated Mr. Buhari in 2011--and a
presidential race has never been this close in the country.
Mr. Buhari previously ruled for 20 months after a 1983 military
coup and has run for president four times. His return to the helm
could help Nigeria cement recent gains against Boko Haram. The
group's militants have killed more than 20,000 people in the
impoverished northeast, and displaced more than a million.
Mr. Buhari's push to battle corruption in Nigeria could lead to
more U.S. security assistance, particularly if he investigates
alleged civil-rights abuses, said John Campbell, who served as U.S.
ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 until 2007.
Still, even with U.S. assistance, the Nigerian military has been
so depleted in recent years that major changes could take time to
develop.
"Buhari has been out of government for decades and so the
question will be how fast he can assemble a team that can actually
wrestle with all of the difficult issues that rebuilding the
security services involves," Mr. Campbell said.
Many in Nigeria say that as a Muslim and a northerner, Mr.
Buhari will be able to forge partnerships that eluded Mr.
Jonathan.
"He has the experience and the exposure to pursue a lasting
peace," said Gov. Kashim Shettima of Borno State, the epicenter of
Boko Haram's onslaught. "I believe Gen. Buhari will bring to bear
in the prosecution of the war a more holistic cocktail of
options--military as well as economic solutions."
Mr. Buhari faces another tall order in cracking down on
corruption and revive Nigeria's sagging economy. Plunging crude
prices have shot big holes in the federal budget, and the naira
currency is trading at record lows.
Nigerians waited in long lines this week to fill up on gas and
withdraw cash from automated-teller machines. Demand for everything
from Champagne to small loans has sagged along with the oil
price.
"Things are almost at a standstill," said Olutoyin Okeowo, an
executive at a group that normally imports 35,000 Toyota vehicles
annually. Last year, business fell more than a third as sentiment
soured. He hopes the change in government can turn things
around.
"Now Nigerians are more politically aware. They know what to
expect," Mr. Okeowo said.
But if what they expect is what Mr. Buhari promised in his
campaign, they may be disappointed, said Zoran Milojevic, a
director at the brokerage firm Auerbach Grayson in New York. "He
was talking utopia: new jobs for everyone," Mr. Milojevic said.
"That's not going to happen."
Still, from the commercial capital of Lagos to towns in the
northeast beset by Boko Haram, Nigerians filled the streets on
Tuesday to celebrate Mr. Buhari's victory.
"Jonathan didn't see everything we need--so many things," said
Joseph Odeh, a 19-year-old assistant cook listening to radio
reports of the president's defeat while perched on a pile of cinder
blocks in Lagos. "Buhari will bring change to our country."
In Yola, cars honked as they sped through town and young men
shouted and held up Buhari campaign posters. Others burned Jonathan
posters.
"We are so happy! We are celebrating!" yelled 23-year-old Aminu
Yahya. He said he expected Mr. Buhari to bring employment and
security.
"We need Buhari to clear Boko Haram out of Nigeria," he said as
dozens of others crowded around him, waving flashlights and
shouting "Buhari!"
Fatima Umar, a 20-year-old student, grinned as she sauntered
down the street with two friends, all holding Buhari posters in
front of them.
"My future is not so bad anymore. We have a change of president,
"she said.
Asked what she hoped Mr. Buhari would bring, she said:
"Security, schools, water, roads, everything!"
Both candidates pledged to respect the results if they deemed
them credible. That became a critical caveat this week as both
camps complained about a chaotic voting process in some quarters of
this country of 170 million, Africa's most populous.
Transition Monitoring Group, a Nigerian observer organization,
said returns appeared to have been manipulated to increase the
number of votes from Mr. Jonathan's southern strongholds. But the
group said the suspect figures didn't affect the overall
outcome.
In 1990, just three African countries were democracies,
according to Freedom House, a Washington-based pro-democracy group.
By 1994, the count was 18. Now, 19 qualify.
Angola and Zimbabwe are among countries that have staged what
civil-rights groups called deeply flawed elections in recent years,
extending the rule of presidents in office for three decades.
Other countries including Senegal and Zambia have managed
peaceful transitions after opposition candidates won elections. But
an opposition victory against an entrenched ruling party in a
country with Nigeria's oil wealth is unprecedented, said Muna
Ndulo, a professor at Cornell University Law School.
"Peaceful transfer of power through elections is possible in
Africa," he said.
The shakeout for Nigeria's political class, which draws its
power from the continent's top crude industry, will be widespread,
said Stephen Chan, an international-relations professor at London's
School of Oriental and African Studies. "Big beasts in the
political landscape in Nigeria will be seeing the writing on the
wall."
Some warned that Mr. Buhari needs to prove he can live up to the
democratic mandate he has received. "Gen. Buhari would be making a
mistake if he felt we will all go to sleep again now," said Ayo
Obe, a Nigerian human-rights advocate.
Mr. Buhari's backers say he intends to meet that challenge. He
came to power after a coup in the 1980s and ordered his police to
whip people who were late for work. Now says he embraces democratic
rights.
"He's a repentant democrat," said Rotimi Amaechi, governor of
the oil-rich Rivers State and a campaign leader for Mr. Buhari.
Damian Paletta in Washington and Gbenga Akingbule in Abuja,
Nigeria contributed to this article.
Write to Patrick McGroarty at patrick.mcgroarty@wsj.com and
Heidi Vogt at heidi.vogt@wsj.com