By Jon Sindreu
LONDON--Inflation in the eurozone likely turned positive in May
for the first time in six months, economists say.
Analysts polled this week by The Wall Street Journal believe
official data, due Tuesday, will show consumer prices rose an
annual 0.2% during the month, compared with zero growth in
April.
Inflation in the single currency area first turned negative in
December, as prices were dragged down by the fall in the cost of
oil and food in the international markets. However, economists say
the European Central Bank policy of buying sovereign
bonds--announced in January and launched in March--has put upwards
pressure on prices by weakening the value of the euro compared with
other major currencies.
The ECB is expected Wednesday to leave its policy interest rate
at its current record-low 0.05% for yet another month.
Nevertheless, market attention in the coming week will be
focused on the final acts of the negotiation between Greece and its
European creditors. Despite media reports of a deal being close, no
final agreement for Athens to receive further funding has so far
been reached.
"The Greek government's cash balances are running low, too low
in fact to meet current expenses in June as well as upcoming
payments to the [International Monetary Fund]," said Gustavo Reis,
economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a weekly note.
"Importantly, even if negotiators reach an agreement in coming
days, the key risk ahead is the Greek parliamentary vote on the
deal."
Date GMT Indicator Period Forecast Previous
Jun 01 0945 ITALY PMI manufacturing May 53.6 (13) 53.8
Jun 01 0950 FRANCE PMI manufacturing final May 49.3 (14) 49.3p/48.0
Jun 01 0955 GERMANY PMI manufacturing final May 51.4 (21) 51.4p/52.1
Jun 01 1000 EUROZONE PMI manufacturing final May 52.3 (25) 52.3p/52.0
Jun 01 1400 GERMANY CPI preliminary May +0.1%MM (18) 0.0%MM
Jun 01 1400 GERMANY CPI preliminary May +0.7%YY (22) +0.5%YY
Jun 01 1400 GERMANY HCPI preliminary May +0.1%MM (13) -0.1%MM
Jun 01 1400 GERMANY HCPI preliminary May +0.6%YY (13) +0.3%YY
Jun 02 0955 GERMANY Unemployment change May -10.000 (17) -8.000
Jun 02 0955 GERMANY Unemployment rate May 6.4% (22) 6.4%
Jun 02 1100 EUROZONE HCPI preliminary May +0.2%YY (26) 0.0%YY
Jun 02 1100 EUROZONE Core CPI May +0.7%YY (15) +0.6%YY
Jun 02 1100 EUROZONE PPI Apr +0.1%MM (10) +0.2%MM
Jun 02 1100 EUROZONE PPI Apr -2.0%YY (9) -2.3%YY
Jun 03 0945 ITALY PMI services May 52.7 (10) 53.1
Jun 03 0950 FRANCE PMI services final May 51.6 (13) 51.6p/51.4
Jun 03 0955 GERMANY PMI services final May 52.9 (21) 52.9p/54.0
Jun 03 1000 EUROZONE PMI services final May 53.3 (25) 53.3p/54.1
Jun 03 1000 EUROZONE PMI composite final May 53.4 (17) 53.4p/53.9
Jun 03 1100 EUROZONE Unemployment rate Apr 11.2% (19) 11.3%
Jun 03 1100 EUROZONE Retail sales Apr +0.5%MM (12) -0.8%MM
Jun 03 1345 EUROZONE Main refinancing rate Jun 0.05% (22) 0.05%
Jun 05 0800 GERMANY Industrial orders Apr +0.5%MM (24) +0.9%MM
(Figures in parentheses refer to number of economists surveyed.
p = preliminary)
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com