Dubai property price correction "overdue"
08 July 2015 - 1:20AM
Property
Dubai’s property market has enjoyed a rollercoaster
couple of years, after the market rebounded from collapse to post
some of the fastest growing property prices in the world. Since
then, though, real estate values in the emirate have declined once
more, as the market cools down, driven by government measures
designed to dampen speculative investment.Property values slipped
by almost 0.3 per cent in Q3 2014, followed by a further 0.5 per
cent drop in the final three months of last year. As a result,
prices rose just 3.4 per cent in 2014, down from 51 per cent in the
previous year.Property advisors at Harbor Real Estate, though,
argue that the correction is "overdue".The total value of real
estate transactions reached Dh234 billion in 2013, a 52 per cent
increase on 2012, something that Harbor highlights as "clearly
unsustainable"."Just over Dh63 billion worth of transactions has
taken place this year, indicating that the market is well and truly
entered its correctional phase," comments the firm.A slew of new
projects being launched as a result of renewed developer optimism
have also helped to hinder prices, amid concerns about potential
over-supply."Calculating optimal supply levels, especially when
emerging from a recessionary period, is particularly challenging,"
admits Harbor. "It depends on an accurate estimation of demand for
real estate assets that will emanate from Dubai’s population
growth, which will be largely driven by overall economic
growth."There will be about 11,000 villas, 7,500 town houses and
35,000 apartments delivered between now and 2020. But Harbor argues
that, in the long term, this is not necessarily too much."We at
Harbor take a minimum five year view when looking at equilibrium or
imbalances in the market," continues the firm. "When taking into
account the nature of its resurgence, the strong growth in
fundamental economic drivers such as tourism and trade, the levels
of investment into infrastructure and initiatives and stakeholder
commitment to sustainable growth, we believe that while inventory
levels may spike in the interim, they will not be excessive at the
end of our five year forecast period."Harbor concludes: "The
correction could not have come at a better time."
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