By Paul Vieira
OTTAWA--Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Sunday
launched an election campaign that will see the Conservative leader
seek a fourth consecutive mandate on Oct. 19 amid a backdrop of
deteriorating economic conditions and voter fatigue.
Mr. Harper is the second-longest serving leader among Group of
Seven country leaders. His bid for re-election comes as Canada's
economy has stalled amid steep declines in the price of oil, its
top export, and as a serious election threat emerges from the
left-leaning New Democratic Party, which currently leads in the
polls.
Mr. Harper has tied his electoral success since coming to power
in January 2006 to a narrative that his party is best suited to
oversee economic policy. Canada emerged relatively unscathed from
the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and voters rewarded Mr.
Harper with a majority mandate in parliament in the last national
election in May 2011, when his party attracted 40% of the popular
vote.
The Canadian leader faces more difficult economic conditions
this time around. The Canadian economy posted negative growth in
each of the first five months of 2015 as lower prices for oil and
other commodities sideswiped trade and business investment, pushing
the Canadian dollar sharply lower and, according to some
economists, putting the country on track for a recession in the
first half of the year.
Mr. Harper's pro-trade agenda also suffered a blow in recent
days when members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership failed to clinch
a deal in Hawaii. Mr. Harper had said a TPP deal was crucial for
Canada's economy.
Mr. Harper, 56 years old, said Sunday that management of the
economy was his party's top priority, and stressed his experience
in dealing with the economy and national security as a crucial
advantage over his rivals. He said a lengthy campaign was needed so
Canadians could explore the options and make a "serious
choice."
"This is an election about leadership on the big issues that
affect us all," Mr. Harper said. "It is an election about who will
protect our economy in a period of ongoing global instability and
secure Canada's prosperity. And it's about who is best equipped to
make the tough calls to keep our country safe."
Canada's election date was fixed for Oct. 19, but the prime
minister has the power to decide when to dissolve parliament and
start the official campaign. An 11-week campaign--the longest in
Canadian history and double the length of the recent U.K. election
campaign--plays to the Conservative Party's strengths because it
has a bigger war chest than its two main political rivals. Since
2012, Mr. Harper's Conservatives have raised 69 million Canadian
dollars (US$52.8 million), or nearly as much as their two main
rivals combined, according to data from Elections Canada.
The Conservatives' financial edge may help overcome some voter
fatigue with the party, which has been in power for more than nine
years.
The opposition NDP enjoys 34% support among Canadians, a modest
lead over the Conservatives' 30%, according to a recent poll from
Ottawa-based Ekos Research. That firm and others have also released
survey results indicating up to two-thirds of Canadians believe it
is time of a change in government in Ottawa.
The left-leaning NDP has never been in power at the federal
level, although it has governed at the provincial level, most
notably winning the recent provincial election in resource-rich
Alberta. The national party is led by Thomas Mulcair, a lawyer and
former environment minister in the province of Quebec.
Mr. Mulcair said Sunday that his campaign would be focused on
providing support to Canadians struggling under stagnant wage gains
and increasing levels of debt, through policies such as affordable
day care.
Mr. Mulcair also said he would take measures to support Canadian
manufacturers, which are struggling to sell goods abroad even amid
a weaker currency and a pickup in U.S. demand, and attract new
factory investments into Canada.
The Liberal Party of Canada is in third place in the polls, in
the mid-20% range. In a statement, its leader, Justin Trudeau, said
it was time for a new government with a "plan to grow the middle
class and grow the economy."
Analysts say for Mr. Harper to win, he must count on the
coalition of voters that brought him a majority in 2011--and that
includes western Canada, suburban voters in the Toronto region, and
immigrants.
Still, Mr. Harper "is in the hunt, and doing a lot better than
you would have thought given the inventory of gloom and disapproval
he faces," said Frank Graves, president of Ekos.
Darrell Bricker, president of polling firm Ipsos Canada, said
this election is shaping up as the most difficult to predict in
decades. The electorate appears volatile, he said, and his firm's
research indicates households from most income classes are consumed
with issues related to cost-of-living issues, such as higher
grocery and hydro bills.
"There's a big preoccupation about making ends meet," he
said.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com