SINGAPORE, Aug. 5, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- China's
apparent oil demand* rose 4.1% in June from a year earlier to 11.25
million barrels per day (b/d), according to a just-released Platts
analysis of Chinese government data. This is in contrast with
year-over-year increase of around 10% seen in the previous three
months.
The latest analysis is based on a new methodology introduced
from July in response to significant shifts in Chinese consumption
and trade patterns in recent years.
Growth in demand for gasoline and LPG slowed in the month, while
gasoil and jet fuel/kerosene demand saw a contraction.
"China's oil demand growth
slowed to 4.1% in June," said Platts Associate Editorial Director
for Asia oil news, Mriganka
Jaipuriyar. "Gasoline and jet fuel, which have been seen as the key
drivers of oil demand growth in China, witnessed a slowdown in the month."
China's refinery throughput in
June averaged 10.59 million b/d, rising 1.9% from a year earlier,
data from the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed
July 15.
Meanwhile, China's net imports
of oil products soared 58.4% year over year to 659,000 b/d in June,
driven by strong inflows of fuel oil and naphtha, according to data
released July 23 by the General
Administration of Customs (GAC).
During the first six months of this year, China's total apparent oil demand averaged
11.12 million b/d, an increase of 7.3% from the same period of
2014.
Gasoil
Gasoil is the most widely consumed oil product
in China and demand has been hit
in the last three years because of declining economic growth.
Apparent demand in June contracted by 0.3% year over year to
3.63 million b/d, but this compares with a relatively high base in
June 2014.
"Gasoil demand could in reality be lower than Platts estimates
given that data from Xinhua's China Petroleum Stockpile Statistics
showed that commercial gasoil stocks rose by nearly 28% at the end
of June from last year," said Jaipuriyar.
Up to 70% of the fuel is used in the transport sector while the
remainder is used by various sectors, including construction,
farming and fishing, industrial heating and to power machinery.
Apparent demand for gasoil rose 4.2% over January to June to
3.62 million b/d.
LPG
Demand for LPG rose 8.2% year over year to 1.19
million b/d. This was the first time in 10 months that LPG demand
in China registered a single digit
growth after growing at rates of between 15% and 36% for the past
10 months.
So far this year, apparent demand for LPG has gained 18.9% year
over year to 1.18 million b/d.
Gasoline
Apparent demand for gasoline climbed 6.5%
year over year to 2.74 million b/d with January-June demand rising
9.4% to 2.67 million b/d.
According to Xinhua's China Petroleum Stockpile Statistics,
gasoline stocks rose 2.5% month-over-month at the end of June,
suggesting actual demand was slightly lower than Platts
estimates.
Passenger car sales registered year-on-year declines for the
first time in more than two years in June, falling by 3.4% to 1.51
million units, according to data from China Association of
Automobile Manufacturers
Fuel Oil
Apparent demand for fuel oil in June soared
24.7% year over year to 1.08 million b/d, and demand over
January-June rose 9.5% year over year to 947,000 b/d.
Net imports of fuel oil rose 69% year over year to 658,000 b/d,
led by a jump in imports of petroleum bitumen blend.
Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that
bitumen blend imports nearly tripled in June compared with a year
ago, while other fuel oil imports also rose 30% year over year to
hit a six-month high.
MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN '000 B/D
|
Jun'15
|
Jun '14
|
% Chg
|
May '15
|
Apr'15
|
Mar '15
|
Feb '15
|
Net crude
imports
|
7,195
|
5,688
|
26.5
|
5,465
|
7,292
|
6,162
|
6,647
|
Crude
production
|
4,426
|
4,289
|
3.2
|
4,297
|
4,276
|
4,278
|
4,235
|
Apparent
demand
|
11,250
|
10,808
|
4.1
|
11,102
|
11,367
|
11,199
|
11,205
|
Sources: GAC, NBS, Platts
Month-to-month demand in China
is generally viewed to be subjected to short-term anomalies which
are of interest and important to note, but often fail to reveal the
country's underlying demand trends. Year-to-year comparisons are
viewed by the marketplace to be more indicative of the country's
energy profile.
For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at
www.platts.com. For Chinese-language information on oil and the
energy and metals markets, visit http://www.platts.cn/.
*Notes on analysis methodology
Platts calculates
China's apparent or implied oil
demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic
refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the NBS and
Chinese customs. Platts also takes into account undeclared
revisions in NBS historical data.
The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude
production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official
data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil
stockpiles. Official statistics on oil storage are released
intermittently.
Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and
26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use
of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.
Platts uses a conversion rate of 7.33 barrels of crude per metric
ton, the widely-accepted benchmark for markets East of Suez.
In view of some significant shifts in Chinese consumption and
trade patterns in recent years, Platts has revised its methodology
starting July 2015 to include
production and net imports of LPG, as well as imports of petroleum
bitumen blend, a popular imported feedstock for China's teapot refineries. Platts has also
refined its calculation of exports of jet fuel and fuel oil to
exclude international marine bunker sales and aviation fuel
delivered to international flights. This also impacts net imports,
and hence apparent demand calculations.
All historical figures used for comparison have also been
calculated using the new methodology to ensure consistency.
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SOURCE Platts