By Ese Erheriene
Global gold demand was broadly unchanged last year, but a fall
in supply could be positive for the market going forward, said the
World Gold Council Thursday.
Demand in China, one of the biggest buyers of the precious
metal, also fell, in another sign of that country's fragile
economic state.
Overall, a surge in demand in the second half of the year
countered a lackluster first half.
Total demand in 2015 weighed in at 4,212.2 tons, compared with
4,226.4 tons the previous year, according to the industry body's
most recent Gold Demand Trends report. However, gold demand growth
rose toward the end of the year--fourth-quarter demand was 1,117.7
tons, up 4% from the same period a year earlier.
The first half of 2015 "was a pretty weak quarter, but things
really, really did pick up in the second half of the year," said
Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the London-based
World Gold Council.
The gold market has been in free fall since the summer of 2011,
when prices exchanged hands at its peak price of $1,920.94 a troy
ounce.
While still under pressure, global economic concerns and a
weaker dollar have helped the metal kick off the year positively.
The metal is up 11.5% since the first trading session of 2016, but
down almost 40% in the last five years.
Jewelry demand, which makes up more than 60% of total gold
demand, fell 3% year-over-year to 2,414.9 tons in 2015 from 2,480.8
tons in 2014, driven by declines in key markets.
For China and India, which together make up around half of
global gold demand, it was a tale of two diverging gold giants.
Chinese appetite for jewelry decreased 3% to 783.5 tons last
year, with consumers displaying caution in the face of growing
economic uncertainty as the country continued its bumpy
deceleration in growth.
"The Chinese economy is slowing a little bit, we've had stock
market turmoil...and for people looking to buy consumer goods, it
makes them potentially think twice," said Mr. Hewitt.
In India meanwhile, annual demand rose 5% to 654.3 tons--the
third-highest year on record--driven by seasonal celebrations and a
slide in the price of gold both in the fourth quarter, which
encouraged buying. Buyers in Asia are often considered
bargain-hunters, as they typically enter the market when prices
have fallen significantly to pick up the metal more cheaply.
Elsewhere, central bank purchases increased 1% year-over-year to
588.4 tons as countries sought to diversify their foreign
reserves.
Total bar and coin demand world-wide increased 1% to 1,011.7
tons in 2015, from 1,000.5 tons the year before. On a regional
level, bar and coin demand in China weighed in at 201 tons, up 21%
on 2014. In the U.S., price-sensitive consumption increased in the
latter stages of 2015, surging 53% overall to 73.2 tons.
Meanwhile, global supply slumped 4% lower year-over-year to
4,258.3 tons. Mine supply increased at its lowest level since 2008
at 1%, while recycled gold dropped 7% to 1,092.8 tons--an
eight-year low.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council said it is too early in
the year to reveal an official outlook for the pace of gold demand
in 2016. Declining production, from announced supply cuts and fresh
cutbacks from miners, should support prices going forward,
though.
"Back in 2012, mining companies slashed their corporate costs,
their exploration and development budgets [and so] the pipeline of
new gold mines is really thin," said Mr. Hewitt. "So, over 2016 we
expect these factors to continue to weigh on mine production...and
I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up dipping."
Spot gold was trading up 0.3% at $1,192.92 an ounce on the
London spot market, hovering near an eight-month high.
Write to Ese Erheriene at ese.erheriene@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 11, 2016 00:14 ET (05:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.