By Nina Adam and Jason Douglas
FRANKFURT--The eurozone economy continued its slow growth in the
final quarter of 2015, but a darkening global outlook and
financial-market turmoil mean the best of Europe's recovery is
likely behind it, adding to expectations that the European Central
Bank will announce extra stimulus measures next month.
Economic output in the 19-country euro currency bloc grew at an
annualized rate of 1.1% in the fourth quarter, in line with
economists' expectations. Resilience in Germany, Europe's biggest
economy, helped offset a weakening of growth in Italy and France,
compared with the third quarter. Gross domestic product in the
eurozone grew 1.5% in 2015 as a whole.
Friday's GDP data come amid a period of turbulence in markets
that is fuelling concerns about a possible global downturn in 2016.
The eurozone's sluggish domestic demand and dependence for growth
in recent years on exports to other major economies, including the
U.S. and China, makes it vulnerable to a slowdown elsewhere.
Stock markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S. have tumbled in
recent weeks, with bank stocks bearing the brunt of the selloff,
underlining investor fears that the negative interest-rate policies
pursued by some central banks--including the ECB--could threaten
lenders' profitability and weigh on growth.
Weak monthly data recently in the eurozone, including on
inflation and industrial production, are further signs that the
currency area could struggle to maintain last year's pace of growth
in 2016.
"The worsening international backdrop has taken the wind out of
the eurozone's sails," said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the
Center for European Reform, a nonpartisan London think tank.
Mr. Tilford said there is currently little risk of recession in
the eurozone, but added that global growth appears to be slowing
before Europe's recovery gained any vigor. "The problem is the
eurozone never really recovered from the previous downturn," he
said, referring to Europe's long debt crisis in recent years.
The fourth quarter's "lackluster" growth data reinforce the
already strong likelihood that the ECB will opt for more stimulus
at its March 10 policy meeting, said Howard Archer, an economist at
IHS Global Insight in London.
ECB President Mario Draghi surprised investors last month by
pledging to "review and reconsider" the bank's stimulus at its next
policy meeting, just six weeks after announcing fresh measures that
underwhelmed investors. Mr. Draghi pointed to a sharp drop in oil
prices since the bank's most recent economic forecasts, as well as
weaker growth prospects for emerging economies.
Analysts expect the ECB to announce a fresh cut to its deposit
rate--charged to banks for reserves they keep on deposit with the
central bank--as well as an acceleration of its bond-purchase
program, which is currently worth EUR60 billion a month.
While the health of China's economy is a particular worry for
European exporters, the U.S. outlook is also becoming an issue.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled on Wednesday that
officials are reassessing their expectations for steady growth and
job gains in the months ahead. Disappointments on the economy could
push the Fed to delay future interest-rate increases, after it
began raising short-term rates in December.
Slower-than-expected rate increases in the U.S., the U.K. and
elsewhere are pose another risk for the eurozone: that the euro
could rise significantly against the dollar and other major
currencies, hurting eurozone exporters.
Many German exporters are already feeling the impact of weaker
demand in emerging economies, especially for the machine tools and
other investment goods that Germany specializes in.
"So far, stronger demand from Europe has been compensating for
weak orders from China, Russia and Brazil, said Heinz-Jürgen
Prokop, a board member at machine-tool maker Trumpf in southern
Germany. "Although demand from the U.S. is still okay, we regard it
as more of a risk," Mr. Prokop said.
German GDP grew at an annualized 1.1% in the fourth quarter, the
same pace as the third quarter, but slower than in early 2015. "The
German economy is on a moderate growth course, but the fragile
global economic environment is leaving its marks," the country's
economics ministry said in a statement.
Italy, the eurozone's No. 3 economy, grew at an annualized pace
of only 0.4% last quarter, weaker than expected. The outturn is a
disappointment for the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi,
which has tried hard to juice growth with a mix of labor overhauls
and tax breaks for companies.
Italian companies say they are feeling some relief from the
country's long stagnation thanks to ECB stimulus measures, which
have made credit easier to come by. But so far that hasn't
translated into markedly higher business investment or hiring.
"We are converting part of our short-term contracts into
permanent ones, and we hired 20 people in 2015 thanks to the new
[fiscal] incentives," said Sabino Basso, owner and president of
oil-exporting company Basso Fedele & Figli from near Naples.
"But it's hard to believe in a long-lasting recovery," Mr. Basso
said.
France, the eurozone's second-biggest economy, which released
its GDP data last week, grew at a 1% annualized rate last quarter,
continuing its anemic recent performance. Greece, Europe's most
depressed economy, shrank at an annualized 2.2% in the fourth
quarter. The country's fourth contraction in the last five quarters
shows how far it is from stabilizing after a near-continuous slump
since 2008.
Tom Fairless in Frankfurt and Giada Zampano in Rome contributed
to this article.
Write to Nina Adam at nina.adam@wsj.com and Jason Douglas at
jason.douglas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 12, 2016 11:43 ET (16:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.