U.S. Grain, Bean Stockpiles Set to Climb
29 September 2016 - 8:13AM
Dow Jones News
By Doug Cameron
U.S. corn and soybean stockpiles continue to climb ahead of
another record harvest that has sent futures prices tumbling since
June, according to industry analysts.
The amount of corn in storage bins on Sept. 1 likely rose 1.5%
from a year earlier to 1.757 billion bushels, according to an
average of analyst estimates compiled by The Wall Street Journal.
Soybean inventories are expected to have climbed almost 6% to 202
million bushels, compared with the same time last year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release quarterly
estimates for grain and oilseed stockpiles at noon EDT on
Friday.
The relatively narrow band in expectations over corn stocks will
likely mute the impact on futures markets, but analysts said the
reaction to the soybean numbers could be larger as the band of
estimates is almost 100 million bushels wide.
Some analysts are considering bumping up already high yield
estimates, with the clement weather forecast over the next 10 days
expected to favor harvesting beans over a still-wet corn crop in
parts of the country.
The quarterly stocks reports have a limited history of
surprises, but provide an important building block for industry
estimates ahead of the next USDA update on global supply and demand
conditions, due on Oct. 12.
The prospect of a fourth year of bumper harvests has depressed
U.S. corn futures by 25% from their mid-June peak, with beans off
almost 20%.
The USDA earlier this month projected farmers this fall will
collect a record 15.09 billion bushels of corn and 4.2 billion
bushels of soybeans.
One bright spot has been an uptick in exports. The Association
of American Railroads said agricultural products shipments were
13.4% higher in the week to Sept. 24 compared with the same period
last year. Activity has accelerated in recent months, with
shipments now up 5.5% so far this year.
The global wheat inventory also continues to swell, with
analysts forecasting U.S. stockpiles will climb 14.4% from a year
earlier to 2.398 billion bushels.
The increase is in line with that experienced last year even
though a multiyear low in flour prices has spurred food use, and
wheat is increasingly challenging corn as an animal feed. U.S.
exports remain sluggish because of the strong dollar and abundant
global supplies
U.S. wheat production climbed 13.4% from a year ago to 2.326
billion bushels, slightly higher than the USDA's month-ago forecast
according to analysts ahead of a separate report also due
Friday.
Wheat prices have firmed in recent days as rains slowed the
Australian harvest, but U.S. futures are still testing levels not
seen since 2006 after a 15% decline since the start of the
year.
Write to Doug Cameron at doug.cameron@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 28, 2016 17:58 ET (21:58 GMT)
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