China's Trade Surplus Increases in April
08 May 2017 - 4:40PM
Dow Jones News
By Mark Magnier
BEIJING--China's trade surplus widened in April, though both
exports and imports grew less than expected amid signs that global
trade momentum may be slipping.
Exports rose 8% from a year earlier compared with 16.4% in
March, the General Administration of Customs said Monday.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 10%
rise.
Imports climbed 11.9%, also below forecasts, after a 20.3% rise
in March. China's trade surplus increased to $38.05 billion from
$23.93 billion the previous month.
China's trade surplus has been a point of contention with the
U.S. Since the early-April summit between Presidents Donald Trump
and Xi Jinping in Florida, trade tensions have eased, reducing the
prospect for punitive U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
"Overall, China's exports were weaker than expected, but they're
still OK," said Macquarie Group Ltd. economist Larry Hu. "External
demand will be better than last year, but it's likely to slow down
for the rest of the year."
The April data comes on the heels of China's strong export
figures for March, when shipments delayed by the January-February
Lunar New Year holiday rebounded.
China's exports have picked up steam this year after lagging
behind trade recoveries in South Korea and Taiwan. China's exports
to North America, Europe and Japan were up between 7% and 11% year
on year in dollar terms in the first four months of 2017.
But economists question how much further Chinese exports can
expand given evidence of weaker demand in developed countries. The
U.S. Institute for Supply Management manufacturing purchasing
managers index and Germany's Ifo institute's business confidence
index slipped last month, while the U.S. economy quarter grew in
the first quarter at its slowest pace in three years as consumers
reined in spending.
"This could be an early sign of more deceleration in the global
trade recovery," said Nordea Bank analyst Amy Yuan Zhuang. "Trade
will continue to improve this year but not as much as people
expect. I think this is as good as it gets."
Even at a reduced pace, however, exports are expected to
contribute to growth in the world's second-largest economy this
year as demand for technology products expands in the U.S. and
Europe. This contrasts with last year, when a decline in exports
subtracted 0.5 percentage point from China's economic growth.
Grandware Industrial Co., based in Shanghai, which sells glass
tableware to North America, said its export prospects are solid,
with sales expected to increase by 10% to 20% this year over 2016
levels. Higher raw-material prices in the first quarter prompted
the company to raise prices, which resulted in some lost orders,
but the political situation appears to have improved, said Cai
Qihua, Grandware's general manager.
"Exports should continue to grow steadily this year," Mr. Cai
said, adding that he sees less of a threat of higher U.S. import
tariffs on Chinese goods, a possibility Mr. Trump has
mentioned.
Chinese imports decelerated in April, partly as a result of
falling commodity prices capped by a sharp drop in iron-ore, oil
and coking-coal prices in recent weeks. Economists said they expect
further reductions in raw-material imports amid expectations of a
slowdown in China's housing market later in the year.
China remained the world's largest exporter in 2016 for the
eighth consecutive year, accounting for 13% of the global total
even as exports become a less-important growth driver for the
country. Exports accounted for 18% of China's economy last year,
down from a peak above 32% in 2006.
Grace Zhu and Liyan Qi contributed to this article.
Write to Mark Magnier at mark.magnier@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 08, 2017 02:25 ET (06:25 GMT)
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