Chips or derivatives? The chances of winning at the bitcoin casino are higher than at the derivatives market

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Bitcoin casino is a game for fun. With a large number of experiences (bets), sooner or later you will lose. The bitcoin casino itself is always the winner. In scientific terms, this is a game with negative mathematical expectations, because it has a winning probability of less than 50%. At the same time, trading in the derivatives market is often considered a full-time job. But what if we compare the probability of winning in a bitcoin casino and in the derivatives market?

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Why bitcoin casinos are always staying profitable

The simplest game to calculate the probability of winning at a bitcoin casino is roulette. In the conditions of the problem, there are 37 digits – from 0 to 36. Suppose that you are constantly betting on even or odd digits (on red or black – similarly). The probability of winning is 18/37 * 100 = 48.65% <50%. This is due to the presence of zero. The bitcoin casino winnings can be calculated as a percentage of the turnover in the amount of 1/37 * 100 = 2.7%. In this case, the turnover is considered to be the entire volume of the players’ bets made during the entire operation of the roulette wheel.

That is why it is completely unimportant for the bitcoin casino which player won and who lost at the moment. The casino receives a profit from turnover, which means it will try to increase it, by all means, namely, for players to make bet bigger and frequent. With the growth of turnover, the profit of the casino also increases. Bets on individual numbers, sectors, and other parts of the roulette wheel with a large number of experiments do not change anything, and the probability of winning always tends to 48.65%, that is, less than a half. This means that sooner or later you will lose.

By the way, the bitcoin casino could remove zero from the roulette wheel, replacing it with a mandatory requirement to pay a commission on each bet in the amount of 2.7%, in terms of its income, nothing would change. You find something similar to the derivatives market, don’t you?

The situation is similar to other types of bitcoin casino games. In the case of blackjack (21), the player’s skills slightly shift the probability to 50%, but on average, the casino’s income is still the same 2.7% of the turnover (of the volume of bets). Of course, the turnover must be supported by a large number of bets, then the laws of probability theory will certainly work. That is why the bitcoin casino has a limit on the maximum bet. The minimum level is set for another reason – so that the player does not torture the dealer by losing his money too slowly. The profitability of the table for a certain period of time has not been canceled either.

But this is not surprising, because a bitcoin casino is a game, and it has to bring fun not money. Treat casinos like entertainment you just paid for like a movie ticket. Its cost is easy to calculate: 2.7% of turnover. I came in, exchanged money for chips, and on average, when the total volume of your bets is about $ 740, you will pay twenty for this pleasure. The same as going to the cinema or to the attractions.

Short conclusion about bitcoin casinos: Your chance of winning is 48.65%. Casino income (your fee) from turnover – 2.7%.

 

Derivatives Market

How to calculate the probability of winning in the derivatives market? We’ll you have to agree with some of the inputs:

  • The probability of winning is calculated from the opposite. When playing roulette, we calculated the bitcoin casino income from the probability of winning. In the derivatives market, we will calculate the probability of winning based on the income of the organizer of this game – the exchange and brokers.
  • For analysis, let’s take ICE volumes. Yearly total for 2020 is $254,934,422.
  • The size of the maximum commission of the exchange and brokers: for registering a transaction for one contract, is $2.5. Brokers take $0.5.

 

The year volatility of the index is 15-20% on average, the average historical deviation from year to year is 5-10%. That is, during the life of each contract, the players actually play for the size of the security deposit in the ratio “bet – win” close to 1 to 1, as in a simple game of roulette.

The unpredictability of market behavior in a short period of time (close to 1 year). The victory of “bulls” or “bears” is random. The average statistical return on the index in the long term is 1.3% per year. After deducting the rate of debt financing of 0.8% per year and compared with the size of volatility and average deviation per year, it has almost no effect on such terms.

The share of hedgers is 10% (expert judgment). It is not entirely correct to say that there is absolutely no positive expectation component in the derivatives market. Yes, and it is brought there by hedgers. In a nutshell, the mechanism looks like this: hedgers, owning shares in the long term, receive an average yield of this instrument of 15-17% per annum (the yield of the index on long windows). Suppose the futures are on average separated from the spot by the size of the debt rate (for example, 10%). It is this rate of return that hedgers receive by “donating” everything above it (17% – 10% = 7% per annum) to players in the futures market. It is easy to calculate the average inflow of these funds into the players’ income: 255 million * 10% * 7% = 1.78 million dollars.

Watch for fluctuations in the futures contract and spot price. The difference is rarely the debt financing rate, which indicates the absence of a noticeable influence of hedgers (it is their strength that keeps this deviation, preventing it from shrinking and expanding), and indicates the overwhelming number of speculators. They just gamble by making bet deals. The extremely short terms of contracts also evidence this.

The losses of the players will not be complete if we do not take into account the influence on the bank that is in the drawing, various abuses – insiders, frontrunners, and other manipulators. This item of expenses can only be assumed by experts: half of the brokers’ income on the contract or 850 thousand dollars.

Okay, let’s exclude from the calculation the “commission” of insiders, manipulators, and scammers (this is for those who believe that crystal-clear people work in the derivatives market; no one will ever move quotes to force closing positions). In this case, your probability of winning is 47.99%. The income of the “bitcoin casino” (derivatives market) from the turnover is 4.03%.

Of course, you can just buy/sell and wait for the outcome based on the expiration results. If you do not twitch during the life of the contract, then the payment for organizing a bet is small – only (0.02% + 0.0165%) * 2 = 0.073%. But in fact (this can be seen from the exchange turnover), the commissions paid by the players are huge and lead to such sad results, making the game in a bitcoin casino a more “profitable” occupation than “work” in the derivatives market.

 

Conclusions

  • The probability of winning in the casino is higher against the player than in the derivatives market.
  • If a bitcoin casino is a game, then the “work” of a simple trader on the derivatives market is a double game.
  • Money and risk management in order to increase the likelihood of winning in a bitcoin casino is obvious. The same techniques are not able to change the probability of winning in the derivatives market. They only prolong the “pleasure” of the game and increase the income of the organizers, but not those who use them.
  • If you want to play, go to the casino. If you want to play with feeling belonging to the “elite”, play on the derivatives market.
  • You can increase the probability of winning (though it will still be less than 50%).

 

Some more fun facts about bitcoin casinos and the derivatives market

The bitcoin casino offers free bonuses so that the player does not stop the game as long as possible. In the derivatives market, to believe in success, you get contests and interviews with “lucky ones”, “gurus” and “professionals”.

In a bitcoin casino, no one will say that the more you bet and lose, the more knowledge and experience you have gained. In the derivatives market, such statements are in the order of things. And, most importantly, for some reason, they are believed.

At a bitcoin casino, no one would think of offering you to play roulette for your money for a percentage of the winnings. It is a normal practice in the derivatives market.

 

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