BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Erase Decline As Inflation Concerns Keep Investors On Edge
14 February 2018 - 3:35AM
Dow Jones News
By Sunny Oh
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting an 0.2%
increase in core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy
prices
Treasury yields retraced their fall on Tuesday as an coming
inflation report added to fears that the Federal Reserve could
accelerate the pace of monetary tightening.
What are Treasurys doing?
The 2-year note yield, sensitive to shifting expectations for
Fed policy, was up 2.9 basis points to 2.106%, according to
Tradeweb data.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was mostly unchanged at 2.853%,
after plumbing an intraday low of 2.822%. While, the 30-year bond
rate was flat at 3.136%.
Bond prices move inversely to yields.
See: 10-year Treasury yield eases after hitting multiyear high
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-year-treasury-yield-eases-after-hitting-multiyear-high-2018-02-13)
What's driving markets?
Bonds are struggling for direction ahead of the consumer-price
index reading on Wednesday. The concern is a higher-than-expected
inflation report could catch the bond market off-guard as it gives
the Fed a stronger case for delivering on its three or four rate
increases this year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were
forecasting an 0.2% increase in core CPI, which strips out volatile
food and energy prices.
The NFIB small business sentiment index
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-business-sentiment-throttles-higher-as-plans-to-expand-hit-record-high-nfib-says-2018-02-13)rose
two points to 106.9 in January, the second best reading in the wake
of the 2007-2009 recession. The wage component of the report rose 5
points to 31%, the highest since 2000.
President Donald Trump's budget proposal released on Monday is
expected to add to existing deficits. Though his budget is unlikely
to be passed in its current form, its priorities suggest the White
House was willing to ramp up spending to juice the economy.
Higher budget deficits could drive up the government's borrowing
costs if investors need extra yield to compensate for the risk of
holding Treasurys. Analysts at Credit Suisse estimated after the
recent spending bill, debt servicing costs could eventually exceed
5% of GDP. Increased issuance can also overwhelm investors when the
price-insensitive Federal Reserve no longer serves as a backstop
for the bond market.
Read: Trump's budget forecasts a doubling of deficits
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-budget-forecasts-a-doubling-of-deficits-2018-02-12)
What did market participants say?
"I'm not going to add another bottom line to what the NFIB said
but just to highlight the inflationary pressures that are clearly
building in the midst of the optimism. This along with exploding
budget deficits, a weak U.S. dollar, quantitative tightening and
less quantitative easing overseas are of course the catalysts for
the rise in interest rates that has infected the stock market,"
said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst for the Bleakley Advisory
Group.
What else is on investors' radar?
Investors are also keeping tabs on how the Fed intends to
respond to fiscal stimulus when the U.S. economy is at full
capacity and unemployment is at multidecade lows.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she supported the
same number of rate increases passed last year again in 2018
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mester-economy-will-work-through-this-episode-of-market-turbulence-2018-02-13),
but recent tax cuts and the fiscal spending measures could alter
that estimate.
New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will
"remain alert" to any risks
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-remain-alert-to-any-financial-stability-risks-2018-02-13)
to financial stability, marking his maiden attempt to soothe
financial markets.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 13, 2018 11:20 ET (16:20 GMT)
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