Russia Raises Interest Rates to Boost Ruble -- Update
15 September 2018 - 1:20AM
Dow Jones News
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Paul Hannon
MOSCOW -- Russia's central bank raised interest rates Friday,
moving to defend the ruble against market volatility and inflation
as global investors question the outlook for emerging-market
economies and the possibility of fresh U.S. sanctions.
The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 7.5% from
7.25%, ending a series of cuts that brought it down from a peak of
17% at the end of 2014 that was introduced in the wake of earlier
sanctions imposed on the country by the U.S. and Europe.
The raise, which surprised most economists, eased investor
concerns over the bank's freedom of action in maintaining Russia's
macroeconomic stability. In recent weeks, President Vladimir
Putin's prime minister and chief economic adviser both suggested
lending rates should fall to boost growth.
The bank's move ended weeks of speculation over the course of
Russia's monetary policy, underscoring Elvira Nabiullina's
willingness to take prompt action when confronted with threats to
economic stability, even when that meant going against the wishes
of Mr. Putin's economic team.
"Our goal is to meet the inflation target, this is the essence
of our independence," central bank chief Ms. Nabiullina told
reporters in Moscow after the rate decision. "There's a growing
uncertainty over sanctions against Russia, the growing geopolitical
risks have increased the outflow of capital from emerging
markets."
She said she would consider further hikes this year if the
inflationary pressures caused by rising sales tax and currency
depreciation don't subside. The central bank now expects inflation
to increase to as high as 5.5% by the end of next year, above its
4% target.
To help stabilize the ruble, the central bank will stop buying
foreign currency this year, Ms. Nabiullina said. The ruble is down
more than 14% against the dollar so far this year, although it rose
0.7% following the rate decision Friday.
The markets reacted positively to what they saw as the assertion
of Ms. Nabiullina's independence. The country's benchmark 2-year
bonds due in 2020 rose slightly following the rate decision.
Moscow's main stock index rose 1% Friday.
"With this decision Nabiullina is showing she's prepared to make
decisive decisions to react to tactical challenges that are arising
in the markets," said Oleg Kouzmin, chief Russia economist at
investment bank Renaissance Capital. "Her mandate is strong and she
continues to enjoy the market's trust."
Mr. Kourmin said he expects the key rate to rise to 8% in the
coming months until emerging market volatility subsides.
Her assertive pursuit of stability has earned her the praise of
the International Monetary Fund and big investment funds, and made
it possible for her to have a bigger impact on the economy with
less action than many of her developing country counterparts.
In Turkey, by contrast, the central bank's belated decision on
Thursday to raise its key rate in response to a plummeting currency
was quickly questioned by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, weakening
its impact. Similar moves to raise interest rates have recently
occurred in Argentina, Indonesia and other developing
economies.
"We consider that this would create a more positive attitude to
emerging markets, to which Russia belongs," Ms. Nabiullina said,
referring to Turkey's hike.
While policy makers face a variety of domestic problems in those
countries, a common factor driving their recent moves is a series
of rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an flow
of capital into the U.S. and away from developing economies.
As a result, many central banks in the developing world face an
unpleasant choice on whether to raise their interest rates as the
dollar strengthens and investors sour on emerging markets. Raising
rates can help limit capital outflows but could crimp economic
growth. Leaving rates unchanged could make currencies more prone to
further declines, creating the risk of higher inflation.
Russia faces a particular threat of capital outflows at a time
of heightened tensions with the West.
"It...looks like the bank's board made the move today to stem
capital outflows resulting from fears about new U.S. sanctions,"
wrote William Jackson, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note
to clients.
-- Jon Sindreu in London contributed to this article.
Write to Anatoly Kurmanaev at Anatoly.kurmanaev@wsj.com and Paul
Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 14, 2018 11:05 ET (15:05 GMT)
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