Benchmark 10-Year U.S. Government-Bond Yield Hits 7-Year High
09 November 2018 - 8:43AM
Dow Jones News
By Sam Goldfarb
U.S. government bond prices fell Thursday, pushing the yield on
the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to a seven-year high, after the
Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady while
presenting a rosy picture of the U.S. economy.
The 10-year yield, which helps set borrowing costs for
individuals and companies around the world, settled at 3.232%,
compared with 3.215% Wednesday. That beat out its previous 2018
closing high of 3.227% set on Oct. 5 and marked its highest
settlement since May 2011.
Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed heading into
the announcement of the Fed's interest-rate decision and extended
gains afterward, with analysts saying the central bank's policy
statement largely met expectations.
The Fed's statement listed a range of positive economic signs.
While it didn't include any new language that would indicate
heightened concerns about rising inflation, it also made no mention
of recent volatility in financial markets -- something investors
and analysts said would have sent a dovish signal to traders.
The Fed has been one major factor pushing yields higher
recently. While some have wondered whether the recent declines in
riskier assets could cause the central bank to at least consider
slowing its pace of interest-rate increases, policy makers have
largely stuck to a disciplined message, strongly implying they'll
raise rates for a fourth time this year in December and then keep
on tightening monetary policy next year.
Federal-funds futures, used by investors to bet on the direction
of interest rates, showed Thursday a 78% chance that the central
bank will raise its benchmark fed-funds rate by at least 0.25
percentage point to 2.25%-2.50% at its December meeting. They also
showed a 34% chance the Fed will raise the rate to at least 3% by
the end of next year, up from 7% at the end of August.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy's robust performance in recent
months has itself sapped demand for Treasurys. There is now little
doubt the economy is doing well, analysts said. The question is
whether it is doing too well, with investors increasingly nervous
that there could be an upswing in inflation or a turn to a more
rapid pace of rate increases by Fed officials intent on mitigating
the inflation threat.
A big reason why U.S. government bonds, and then U.S. stocks,
declined in recent months was rising uncertainty about inflation
expectations and the Fed's potential response, said Karissa
McDonough, a fixed-income strategist at People's United Wealth
Management.
The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections may have curbed some
of that uncertainty. Some analysts now foresee slimmer odds that
Congress could stoke the economy and further increase the budget
deficit through additional tax cuts because Democrats will now
control one half of Congress. Other analysts, though, have noted
the potential for a bipartisan infrastructure spending bill that
could have a similar effect. It is also possible that inflation
could jump on its own, with recent data showing unemployment at a
49-year low and U.S. workers earning their biggest pay raises in
nearly a decade.
Ultimately, an aggressive policy stance from Fed officials could
put downward, rather than upward, pressure on long-term yields,
some analysts caution. In early October Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
caught the attention of bond traders when he said in an interview
that the central bank "may go past neutral," or raise rates past
the point where they are neither accommodative nor restrictive to
the economy.
His comments appeared offhand and not particularly forceful, but
any repeat of that message that seems more deliberate could throw
markets into another spell of volatility, said Priya Misra, head of
global rates strategy TD Securities in New York.
"Risk assets will not like that at all" while the gap between
short and longer-term Treasury yields could narrow, she said.
At the same time, Treasury yields could also rise simply because
supply of the debt outpaces demand.
In one potentially ominous sign, an auction of $19 billion of
30-year bonds met the weakest demand since 2009 on Wednesday,
resulting in an immediate jump in longer-term yields.
Recent data has shown that Asian investors have been buying
fewer U.S. government bonds, even as the Treasury Department
prepares to sell $1.3 trillion of new debt in the new fiscal year
to fund the government's expanding budget deficit.
Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 08, 2018 16:28 ET (21:28 GMT)
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