Fed's Kaplan Says U.S. Growth Isn't Likely to Change His Stance on Rates
19 April 2019 - 6:53AM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said
Thursday improving U.S. economic growth is unlikely to change his
view that short-term interest rates are where they should be.
"For the time being, I don't see any reason to change our policy
setting, " Mr. Kaplan said Thursday in conference call interview
with The Wall Street Journal.
Mr. Kaplan spoke after recent government reports showed U.S.
consumer spending rebounded in March and the country's trade
deficit narrowed in February, signs that economic growth was
stronger in the first quarter than previously estimated.
Fed officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged last
month in a range between 2.25% and 2.5%, and signaled they are
likely to hold it steady this year amid muted inflation pressure
and concern about the slowing global economy.
Mr. Kaplan has supported the Fed's move to the sidelines and
said Thursday he sees no inflation threat.
"I don't think inflation is running away from us" and will
likely end the year around the Fed's 2% target based on a Dallas
Fed measure that aims to gauge the underlying inflation trend, he
said.
He said the Fed could hold its benchmark rate "in the
neighborhood of where it is for some period of time" even if the
economy keeps growing at its current solid pace because he doesn't
expect inflation to take off.
The Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDPNow real-time growth
tracker has shown steadily improving estimates since earlier in the
year and was revised higher Thursday to indicate the economy grew
at a robust 2.8% annualized rate in the first quarter.
Macroeconomic Advisors' tracker sees a similar gain.
J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli told clients in a note
Thursday that in the wake of good retail sales data, he was bumping
his forecast for the first quarter up to 2.9%, from his prior
estimate of 2%.
Mr. Kaplan declined to say what would cause him to argue for
lower rates, but he did say 1.5% inflation would certainly catch
his attention in a way that could put rate cuts on the table.
So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy
items, rose 1.8% in January from a year earlier.
In other comments, Mr. Kaplan said that while he doesn't see
high corporate borrowing as a broad threat to the economy and
financial system, it could still amplify shocks.
Mr. Kaplan doesn't currently hold a voting seat on the central
bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 18, 2019 16:38 ET (20:38 GMT)
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