LE BOURGET, France, June 17,
2019 /PRNewswire/ -- A strong commercial aviation industry,
stable defense spending and the need to service all platforms
throughout their lifecycle are driving a growing aerospace and
defense market, according to the Boeing Market Outlook. Released
today at the Paris Air Show, the outlook values the aerospace and
defense market at $8.7 trillion over
the next decade, up from $8.1
trillion a year ago.
The Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) includes a $3.1 trillion projected demand for commercial
airplanes through 2028 as operators replace older jets with more
capable and fuel-efficient models, and expand their fleets to
accommodate the steady rise in air travel across emerging and
established markets.
The BMO also projects $2.5
trillion of defense and space opportunities during the next
decade as governments modernize military platforms and systems,
pursue new technologies and capabilities and accelerate exploration
from sea to space. The projected spending – spanning military
aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft and other
products – continues to be global in nature with 40 percent of
expenditures expected to originate outside of the United States.
Supporting the defense, space and commercial platforms with
lifecycle solutions will fuel a services market valued at
$3.1 trillion through 2028.
"Aerospace and defense continues to be a healthy and growing
industry over the long term, boosted by strong fundamentals across
the commercial, defense and services sectors and demand that is
geographically-diverse and more balanced between replacement and
growth than ever before," said Boeing Chief Financial Officer and
Executive Vice President of Enterprise Performance & Strategy
Greg Smith.
Boeing today also unveiled its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook
(CMO), a longer-term forecast that delves deeper into the market
for commercial airplanes and services. The newest CMO shows growing
passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive
the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8
trillion over the next two decades and up 3 percent from a
year ago. The global commercial airplane fleet will also sustain
the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial
market opportunity of $16 trillion
through 2038.
"Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be
extremely resilient. Notwithstanding some recent moderation in
passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to
our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable
expansion. In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and
more balanced than we have seen in the past," said Boeing
Commercial Marketing Vice President Randy
Tinseth. "The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a
doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a
massive ecosystem of lifecycle solutions to maintain and support
it."
Of the new airplane deliveries, forecasters say 44 percent will
go toward replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate
traffic growth. Together, the new jets support an industry where
passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6 percent and cargo
traffic will grow an average 4.2 percent. Factoring in the new
airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global
commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038.
This is the first time the projected fleet has crested the 50,000
mark.
The biggest airplane segment remains single-aisles such as the
737 MAX, as operators are projected to demand 32,420 new airplanes.
This $3.8 trillion market is driven
in large part by the continued strength of low-cost carriers,
healthy replacement demand and continuing growth in Asia Pacific.
In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts demand for 8,340 new
passenger airplanes valued at more than $2.6
trillion over the next twenty years. Widebody demand is
spearheaded in part by a significant wave of older airplanes that
will need to be replaced beginning in a few years. Bolstering the
demand for larger aircraft, operators are expected to need 1,040
new large production freighters over the forecast period.
New Airplane
Deliveries through 2038 by size
|
|
Airplane
type
|
Seats
|
Total
deliveries
|
Market
value
|
Regional
jets
|
90 and
below
|
2,240
|
$105
billion
|
Single-aisle
|
90 and
above
|
32,420
|
$3,775
billion
|
Widebody
|
|
8,340
|
$2,650
billion
|
Freighter
widebody
|
---------
|
1,040
|
$300
billion
|
Total
|
---------
|
44,040
|
$6,800
billion
|
The global airplane fleet will continue to generate significant
demand for aviation services, including supply chain support (parts
and parts logistics), maintenance and engineering services,
aircraft modifications and airline operations. Over the next
20 years, Boeing forecasts a $9.1
trillion market for commercial aviation services with annual
growth of 4.2 percent.
"This is a very dynamic and exciting marketplace, one that is
driven by new technology and a relentless drive for greater
efficiency, reliability and safety," said Tinseth. "On the
technology front, we see operators using drones to inspect
airplanes, and manufacturers delving into data analytics for
insights to improve airplane maintenance and performance. Above
all, operators are looking to providers to offer solutions that
help them serve their customers more efficiently and reliably.
Major categories in the services forecast include the
$2.4 trillion market for maintenance
and engineering, which covers tasks required to maintain or restore
the airworthiness of an aircraft and its systems, components and
structures. Another major category is the $1.1 trillion market for flight operations, which
covers services associated with the flight deck, cabin services,
crew training and management and airplane operations.
Commercial
Aviation Services through 2038 by service category
|
|
Service
category
|
Market
value
|
Corporate &
External
|
$155
billion
|
Marketing &
Planning
|
$545
billion
|
Flight
Operations
|
$1,175
billion
|
Maintenance &
Engineering
|
$2,400
billion
|
Ground & Cargo
Operations
|
$4,825
billion
|
The Asia Pacific region, which
includes China, will continue to
lead the way in future growth, accounting for 40 percent of total
airplane deliveries and 38 percent of total services value.
North America and Europe round out the top three regions for
future growth.
Commercial market
through 2038 by region
|
|
|
|
Region
|
Airplane
deliveries
|
Services
market
|
Asia
Pacific
|
17,390
|
$3,480
billion
|
North
America
|
9,130
|
$1,980
billion
|
Europe
|
8,990
|
$1,865
billion
|
Middle
East
|
3,130
|
$790
billion
|
Latin
America
|
2,960
|
$500
billion
|
Russia/C.I.S.
|
1,280
|
$270
billion
|
Africa
|
1,160
|
$215
billion
|
Total
|
44,040
|
$9,100
billion
|
Around the world, the growing commercial fleet will require a
larger supply of pilots, technicians and crews. Boeing's 2019 Pilot
and Technician Outlook forecasts that the civil aviation industry
will need nearly 2.5 million new aviation personnel between now and
2038.
The Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) is the longest-running jet
forecast and is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the
commercial aviation industry. The CMO and other Boeing market
forecasts can be found
at https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/.
Forward-Looking Information Is Subject to Risk and
Uncertainty
Certain statements in this release may be "forward-looking"
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Words such as "expects," "forecasts," "projects," "plans,"
"believes," "estimates" and similar expressions are used to
identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of
forward-looking statements include statements relating to our
future plans, business prospects, financial condition and operating
results, as well as any other statement that does not directly
relate to any historical or current fact. Forward-looking
statements are based on current assumptions about future events
that may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not
guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in
circumstances that are difficult to predict.
Many factors could cause actual events to differ materially from
these forward-looking statements, including economic conditions in
the United States and globally,
general industry conditions as they may impact us or our customers,
and other important factors disclosed previously and from time to
time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made
and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any such
statement, except as required by law.
Contact:
Chaz Bickers
+1 206-769-3234
charles.n.bickers@boeing.com
Paul Bergman
+1 206-724-7292
paul.r.bergman2@boeing.com
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SOURCE Boeing