Oil Prices Rise Sharply as Middle East Tensions Worsen
20 June 2019 - 7:53PM
Dow Jones News
By David Hodari
LONDON -- Oil prices sharply climbed Thursday as tensions in the
Middle East continued to spiral and the dollar sold off.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 2.6% at $63.45 a
barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile
Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.9% to $55.53 a
barrel.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said early Thursday it had shot down
a U.S. RQ4 Global Hawk drone over its territory. That claim came
hours after the U.S. military said a Saudi desalination plant was
struck by a missile that appeared to come from Yemen.
"The market has been largely underpricing ongoing Middle Eastern
tension for some time now but these growing tensions between Iran
and the U.S., and Iran and the Saudis bring it back to center stage
for many of us," said Warren Patterson, commodities strategist at
ING.
These developments mark the latest in a series of flashpoints in
the Middle East, with tensions ratcheting up over recent weeks,
with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on one side, and Iran and Houthi
Yemenis on the other.
Oil prices received a sharp boost last week, after attacks on
two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, which neighbors the Strait of
Hormuz -- the thoroughfare for a third of the world's shipped oil.
In May, prices jumped after attacks on Saudi pumping stations and
its East-West pipeline.
Hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran have come against the
backdrop of U.S. sanctions aimed at driving Iranian oil exports to
zero. Iran has attempted to evade those strictures, while also
repeatedly threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if
sanctions aren't lifted.
"Each time we've had an attack in the Middle East -- we've now
had a drone downed -- we've seen prices reacting positively," said
Giovanni Staunovo, director at UBS Wealth Management's chief
investment office. "It's related to the fact that 30% of global oil
exports go through the region, but the risk premium will only stay
if it risks production disruptions and so far we've seen none."
Flare-ups in the region have added to volatility in oil prices,
providing shock boosts in a period of anxiety over the health of
global economic growth.
The International Energy Agency, the Energy Information
Administration, and Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries
have all recently said that weakening growth -- partly driven by
the U.S.-China trade spat -- will stymie oil demand in the coming
months.
EIA data released Wednesday showed a larger-than-expected weekly
decline in U.S. crude inventories and a generally weaker economic
backdrop has prompted policy reaction this week from central banks.
The European Central Bank signaled stimulus measures Wednesday,
while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled Thursday
increasing willingness to cut interest rates this year or next.
The ensuing drop in the dollar has helped buoy
dollar-denominated commodities, which become less expensive for
other currency holders when the dollar falls. The WSJ Dollar Index
was down 0.5% on the day, extending its decline over the past month
to 1.3%.
"There's also an economic part to the story, with the weakening
dollar obviously bullish for oil," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM
Oil Associates.
A cocktail of geopolitical and fundamental factors threaten to
inject further volatility into oil over the coming days.
President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are due to meet
at the G-20 summit in Japan next week. After trade talks broke down
several weeks ago, even the announcement of their plan prompted
buying across equities and commodities markets.
"If there's a break in the trade war, stocks and oil are going
to rally, " said PVM's Mr. Varga.
Separately, OPEC altered the dates of its coming meeting
Wednesday. With the bloc and its allies having finally agreed to
meet July 1-July 2, investor focus has returned to whether the
cartel will extend its continuing production cut. United Arab
Emirates Oil Minister Suhail al-Mazroui said Wednesday that a
longer cut would be reasonable, according to reports.
Write to David Hodari at David.Hodari@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 20, 2019 05:38 ET (09:38 GMT)
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