BOND REPORT: 30-year Treasury Yield Hits Nearly Six-week High After 'borderline Shocking' Debt Auction
12 July 2019 - 5:46AM
Dow Jones News
By Sunny Oh
Yield curve extends steepening in wake of CPI data
U.S. Treasury yields climbed sharply on Thursday after a
stronger-than-expected June inflation reading weighed on demand for
an auction of long-dated government paper.
What are Treasurys doing?
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 6.1 basis points to a
four-week high of 2.122%, while the 30-year bond yield climbed 7.2
basis points to 2.642%, its highest since May 30. The 2-year note
rate was up 2.7 basis points to 1.852%.
The gap between short-term yields and long-term yields, or the
so-called yield curve, continued to widen from Wednesday as
expectations for a 25 to 50 basis point cut in the federal funds
rate in July gained ground. The 2-year/10-year spread stands at
around 27 basis points, from 15 basis points at the beginning of
the weeks.
What's driving Treasurys?
Stronger-than-expected inflation data hurt appetite for a $16
billion auction for 30-year Treasury bonds, which are more
susceptible to the corrosive impact of inflation than shorter-dated
maturities. The debt sale tailed by 3 basis points, a sign of
insufficient demand. The tail is the gap between the highest yield
the Treasury sold in the auction and the highest yield expected
when the auction began -- the "when issued" level.
June's consumer price index rose by 0.1%, and the core gauge
that strips out for volatile food and energy prices rose by 0.3%.
Both measures edged above expectations from MarketWatch polled
economists.
Yet market participants say the inflation data is unlikely to
sway the Federal Reserve from carrying out rate-cuts, though it
could weigh on the probability of a more aggressive half percentage
point cut. Traders on the fed fund futures market are now pricing
in am 18% chance of a 50 basis point rate-cut in July 31, from 30%
the day before, based on CME Group data
(https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html).
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Senate lawmakers that the U.S.
central bank needed to defend its commitment to the symmetric
nature of its 2% inflation target. Investors said his testimony to
Congress this week suggested the U.S. central bank would ease
policy in July.
What did market participants' say?
"The Fed has been trying to defend the inflation target through
their communication for a while now, but it took Powell's dovish
comments about focusing on downside risks to the economy and his
dismissal of this morning's inflation pickup to finally force the
yield curve to steepen out," wrote Thomas Simons, senior money
market economist at Jefferies, who also described the results of
the auction as "borderline shocking."
"The CPI data won't change Powell's mind," Frances Donald, chief
economist for Manulife Asset Management, told MarketWatch. She
expected 25 basis point rate cuts each in July and September.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 11, 2019 15:31 ET (19:31 GMT)
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