Trump Campaign Talks Up Trade Deals as 'Promises Kept,' but Uncertainty Over China Lingers
19 January 2020 - 11:29PM
Dow Jones News
By Alex Leary
WASHINGTON -- President Trump is seizing on the trade deal with
China as proof that he is delivering on his campaign promises, but
whether that message resonates with voters could hinge on how the
agreement plays out in the coming months.
For now, Mr. Trump and his campaign say the deal with China --
along with Thursday's Senate passage of a reworked North American
trade pact -- has shown that the president can stake out tough
positions to achieve better deals for American businesses and
workers and will do so again to win additional concessions.
The campaign is planning ads around the trade deals that seek to
reinforce a broad "promises made, promises kept" message and target
American workers, including union members and factory workers whose
industries have been hit by decades of U.S. trade policy. Mr. Trump
is expected to give greater prominence to the deals in coming
rallies, according to a person familiar with the planning. On
Sunday, he will highlight the pacts before the American Farm Bureau
Federation's annual convention in Austin, Texas.
The China deal, while limited in scope, calmed a tumultuous
two-year trade war under Mr. Trump and could help maintain a strong
economy that has been his strongest asset heading into his
re-election bid.
"He's sort of settled things down," said Republican pollster
Dave Winston, who isn't associated with Mr. Trump's campaign.
"You've seen the stock market respond positively, and that's a lot
of people's retirement. This is a reinforcement, at least for the
moment, that the economy is headed in a positive direction."
Mr. Trump's campaign and Republican allies are also seeking to
contrast the trade deals this week with the president's impeachment
and trial getting under way in the Senate on charges of abuse of
power and obstruction of Congress. They contend that his efforts
signal to voters that he is getting things done despite the
partisan battles in Washington.
"Every candidate for president over many decades has promised to
stand up to China, but no one ever did until Donald Trump came
along. The signing of the phase-one deal shows that his America
First approach is working," said campaign spokesman Tim
Murtaugh.
But any political momentum over Mr. Trump's handling of China
could fade if Beijing fails to follow through on its commitments to
increase its U.S. imports by $200 billion over two years. Tougher
trade issues also remain unresolved and have been punted to future
negotiations -- and, notably, painful tariffs remain in place.
While the economy is strong, U.S. factory output has slowed.
"True to form, Trump is getting precious little in return for
the significant pain and uncertainty he has imposed on our economy,
farmers and workers," said former Vice President Joe Biden, a
leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Other Democratic candidates have also criticized Mr. Trump over
what they describe as erratic negotiation tactics, but they have
generally supported a tougher stance on China. And the new trade
deal with Mexico and Canada was shaped by Democrats and drew mostly
praise.
As a candidate in 2016, Mr. Trump made American jobs a central
focus of his campaign and repeatedly said China was ripping off the
U.S. and blasted large trade deals such as NAFTA and the proposed
Trans-Pacific Partnership. That message helped Mr. Trump narrowly
flip industrial states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
"It was hugely effective," said Democratic pollster Stanley
Greenberg.
But tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on hundreds of billions of
dollars in Chinese imports drew backlash from the business
community and rattled farmers, who saw retaliatory action from
Beijing and plummeting sales that required billions in government
payments.
The phase-one deal reached this week leaves in place U.S.
tariffs on about $370 billion in Chinese goods. Mr. Greenberg said
public opinion polls show the tariffs are unpopular, particularly
among independent voters, and that will impede Mr. Trump's efforts
to portray the deal as a win.
Alex Conant, a Republican strategist in Washington who advises
some companies fighting Mr. Trump's trade policies, agreed on that
point. "The most important factor in Trump's re-election is the
economy, and tariffs are bad for American consumers and
businesses."
Mr. Trump on Thursday said the China deal was evidence that his
tariff strategy had paid off, tweeting that "farmers are really
happy" with the outcome.
As Democratic presidential candidates gathered last Tuesday for
the debate in Des Moines, Iowa, Mr. Trump's campaign paid for a
plane to fly over the city, towing a green banner that read "Trump
Fights for Iowa Farmers!"
On the debate stage, Democrats echoed themes Mr. Trump harnessed
in 2016, but still sought ways to criticize his approach to trade
negotiations. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont noted his past votes
against Nafta and extending permanent normal trade relations with
China. "The answer," he added, "is we could do much better than a
Trump-led trade deal."
Write to Alex Leary at alex.leary@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 19, 2020 07:14 ET (12:14 GMT)
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