Bitcoin Halving Model Suggests $24,000 Bottom Before Year’s End
01 May 2022 - 7:00PM
NEWSBTC
Some analysts say that Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with
the Bitcoin halving model, leading them to expect a $24000 bottom
before year-end. The topic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving
cycle and its effects on BTC’s long-term price is one that has been
highly debated within the crypto community. Related Reading |
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Quarterly Low Crypto analysts predicted that the price of Bitcoin
would reach $100,000 by 2021. However, it did not get to this
level, and now analysts wonder what will happen in the next six to
twelve months. At the moment, the price of BTC is below $40,000.
Many technical analysis metrics suggest that it is more likely that
the price will go down further than it will recover to the $40,000
to $45,000 range. Let’s look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s
long-term prospects. Bitcoin Could Tumble To $24,000 By The
Year-End Crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Wolves of
Crypto” discussed the four-year cycle theory on Twitter. This
theory suggests that the “most probable bear market bottom for
Bitcoin will take place in November/December 2022.” As per the
projection, Bitcoin marked its highest of the last cycle by
reaching $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So now, the BTC market is in
the corrective phase, usually seen after the cycle top. The
analyst said; The 200–week SMA has been the long-tested bear market
bottom indicator for Bitcoin, and hence, the bottom will likely be
placed at ~$24,000. If this model is correct, we will see bitcoin
break out past its all-time high sometime between August and
September of 2023. The independent market analyst Willy Woo
suggested that the bottom in Bitcoin could come before the end of
2022. He mentioned, “Orange coin seems a bit undervalued
here.” The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric measures how
much demand and supply have changed from the long-term average. The
chart above shows that when the oscillator went down to the same
level as it is now, the price of Bitcoin went up shortly afterward.
He said; Not a bad time for investors to wait for the law of mean
reversion to play out. BTC At Mid-term Low The crypto market
analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin could be in an
optimal accumulation range. The AASI or active address sentiment
indicator indicates this point for the buy zone. Related Reading |
Bitcoin Struggles To Hold $40K While Crypto Track US Stocks “The
AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that the Bitcoin
price change is at a sensible level relative to active address
change,” said Swift. “This tool has a good hit rate across bull and
bear markets for signaling a mid-term low.” The AASI reading is
currently similar to the readings it had in the past. For example,
the price of Bitcoin was low around the same time, and it increased
in price a few weeks or months later. Generally, Bitcoin is
following a four-year cycle, but the increase is happening at a
slower rate than expected. Featured image from Pixabay,
chart from Tradingview
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