Adobe Forecasts $209.7 Billion Holiday Season Online (U.S.); Cyber Monday to Top $11 Billion
10 October 2022 - 11:00PM
Business Wire
- Discounts expected to hit record highs for categories such
as electronics, toys and computers
- Groceries set to hit a record $13.3 billion in online spend,
as consumers plan holiday meals
- Holiday season will be impacted by earlier spending, with an
October Prime Day and early discounts
Today, Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) released its online shopping forecast
for the 2022 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1
through Dec. 31, 2022. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the report
provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by
analyzing commerce transactions online. The analysis covers over 1
trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18
product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience
Cloud, which over 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the
U.S.* rely upon to deliver, measure and personalize shopping
experiences online.
Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to hit $209.7
billion from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, representing 2.5% growth
year-over-year (YoY). During the 2021 holiday shopping season,
$204.5 billion was spent online (growing 8.6% YoY), with consumers
uncertain about returning to physical stores due to lingering
pandemic concerns.
Consumers are expected to spend earlier this year, as a second
Prime Day (Oct. 11-12) kicks off before the holiday season begins.
The first Prime Day event drove record online sales for the retail
industry overall, with $73.7 billion spent in July (up 20.9% YoY).
These discounts will entice some consumers to start their shopping
sooner, impacting Cyber Week performance. The holiday season will
also be impacted by an uncertain economic environment, as shoppers
contend with elevated prices offline (food, gas, housing) and the
rising cost of borrowing.
Cyber Monday is expected to remain the season’s and year’s
biggest shopping day, driving a record $11.2 billion in
spending, increasing 5.1% YoY. By comparison, Black Friday online
sales are projected to grow by just 1% YoY at $9 billion, while
Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1% YoY.
These major shopping days are losing prominence as e-commerce
becomes a more ubiquitous daily activity, and as consumers see
discounts continuing throughout the full season. Adobe expects
Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) will bring in $34.8
billion overall, up 2.8% YoY. This represents a 16.3% share of
the full season, down from 16.6% in 2021.
“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year,
with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have
occurred around Cyber Week,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of
growth marketing and insights at Adobe. “Even though we expect to
see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that
consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at
8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand.”
($590 billion from Jan. to Aug. 2022)
Insights Into the Three Major E-Commerce Categories
Collectively, electronics, apparel and groceries will contribute
$103.8 billion in online spending this holiday season,
nearly half of what Adobe expects for overall spending ($209.7
billion). These categories have emerged as major revenue drivers
online.
Adobe expects electronics to drive $49.8 billion of online
spending, up 2.9% YoY. Heavy discounts will impact margins and
spending but attract enough shoppers to maintain growth. In
apparel, shoppers are expected to spend $40.7 billion online this
season. This 6.7% YoY decline will reflect increasing
consumer interest in physical stores, as pandemic-related anxieties
subside. Lastly, the grocery category boomed online in 2020 when
people spent more time at home; this season, Adobe expects
groceries to drive $13.3 billion of spending online (growing 10.5%
YoY) as consumers plan holiday meals.
Discounts Expected to Be Massive During the Holiday
Season Adobe expects that discounts will hit record highs
(upwards of 32%) this holiday season, as retailers contend with
oversupply and a softening consumer spending environment.
Computers, electronics and toys will hit all-time highs: Discounts
for computers are expected to be as high as 32% (up from 10% in
2021), while electronics discounts are set to hit 27% (up from 8%),
and toys at 22% (up from 19%). Other discount categories will
include televisions at 19% (vs. 11% in 2021), apparel at 19% (vs.
13%), appliances at 18% (vs. 4%), sporting goods at 17% (vs. 6%)
and furniture & bedding at 11% (vs. 2%).
The biggest discounts are expected to hit between Thanksgiving
and Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) will be the best day
to shop for electronics, while Black Friday (Nov. 25) will have the
best deals for televisions. That Saturday (Nov. 26) will have the
biggest discounts for toys, with the best deals for apparel and
sporting goods arriving on Sunday (Nov. 27). Those looking to buy a
computer or furniture should shop on Cyber Monday (Nov. 28), and
appliances will see top discounts on Dec. 1.
While the days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday are set to
have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the
second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high
as 15%. Deals will also persist through the remainder of the year,
with discounts as high as 20% in the weeks after Cyber Monday (Nov.
29 through Dec. 31). These moments will offer greater flexibility
to consumers who need to manage their budgets in new ways this
year.
Additional Insights:
- Buy Now Pay Later: In 2020, the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL)
payment method saw significant traction, as the pandemic drove many
consumers to manage their budgets in different ways. In that year,
online revenue share for BNPL grew an impressive 31.6% YoY. As we
enter the 2022 holiday season, BNPL usage is expected to slow. From
January to September 2022, online revenue share from BNPL grew only
5% when compared to the same period in 2021. While the growth has
been partly affected by the broader economic environment and a
slowdown in consumer spending, BNPL is also contending with
challenges in demonstrating value to mass consumers.
- Most anticipated gifts: Based on Adobe data and analyses
of market trends and social media buzz, the top toys this season
are expected to be the Got2Glow Fairy Finder, Mini Brands,
Squishmallows, LOL Surprise Dolls, Bluey toys, Disney Encanto and
Cocomelon. Top gaming devices include the Nintendo Switch OLED,
PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, with top games including Overwatch
2, Pokémon Scarlet/Violet, NHL 23 and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
II; other top gifts will include Dyson Airwrap Styler, Apple Watch
Series 8/Ultra, AirPods Max/Pro, Stanley Tumblers and gift
cards.
- Curbside pickup: In December 2021, curbside pickup was
used in 25% of all online orders, as consumers looked for faster
and safer ways to shop. This fulfillment method has ingrained
itself with shoppers and will remain widely used this upcoming
season. Adobe expects curbside pickup to peak from Dec. 22 to Dec.
23 (right before Christmas Eve) at around 35% of all online orders,
while remaining around 25% through November 2022. In an Adobe
survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers, 35% of respondents plan to use
curbside pickup this season.
About Adobe Adobe is changing the world through digital
experiences. For more information, visit www.adobe.com.
*Per the Digital Commerce 360 Top 500 report (2021)
© 2022 Adobe. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are
either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe in the United
States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.
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Public relations contact Kevin Fu Adobe kfu@adobe.com
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