Consumers Buying Premium Denim, But Category Showing Wear
06 March 2009 - 5:09AM
Dow Jones News
Premium denim might have withstood the recession so far, but
those jeans with hundred-dollar price tags are starting to show
some signs of wear as the downturn drags on.
Consumers have abandoned everything from that daily latte to
designer handbags. But they've seemed reluctant to give up pricey
jeans, from companies such as True Religion Apparel Inc. (TRLG), VF
Corp.'s (VFC) 7 For All Mankind and Joe's Jeans Inc. (JOEZ), making
the $425 million market a relative standout in an otherwise dismal
retail universe.
The category outperformed its lower-priced brethren and many
other types of apparel last year, even amid an abysmal
holiday-sales season.
Unit sales for $100-plus denim in department stores and national
chains rose 20% in 2008 to $425.5 million, according to market
research firm NPD Group.
Premium denim, whose prices can range from $100 to more than
$300, has driven excitement in the approximately $4 billion total
denim market for a while, as consumers snapped up the jeans with a
celebrity following and flashier back-pocket designs.
But there are some signs that consumers are cutting back on
expensive jeans, providing a test for True Religion, 7 and Joe's,
the sector's three publicly traded players.
And while all three companies have started to expand into other
clothing categories and even operate their own stores -- aiming to
become recognized worldwide brands like Guess Inc. (GES), Deisel
and Calvin Klein Industries Inc. -- most sales still come from
denim. They also sell a lot of their products in specialty
department stores like Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) and Saks Inc. (SKS),
which have seen sales deteriorate in recent months.
That's largely the reason investors have sold off premium denim
names. So far this year, True Religion's shares have lost about a
third, and were recently trading around $8.39. Apparel giant VF,
which owns True Religion competitor 7 For All Mankind and other
labels such as North Face, has lost about 13%, recently changing
hands around $47.70. Joe's Jeans shares have fallen further into
penny-stock category, down about 19% year-to-date, recently trading
around 29 cents.
Still, sales at True Religion, known for a horseshoe-shaped
design on its denim back pockets, have held up fairly well. The
company, which last week reported a profit that beat analysts'
expectations, said revenues at its domestic wholesale division grew
about 14%, driven by more shipments to department stores like
Nordstrom. But that growth was offset by continued weakness at
boutiques, some of which are struggling to survive the
downturn.
U.S. department stores and boutiques drive about half of True
Religion's sales, while approximately 16% comes from international
retailers. Its 42 company-branded stores and Web sales bring in the
remaining 34%.
True Religion's management is being realistic about challenges,
analysts say. For the year, it expects U.S. wholesale sales to fall
between 17% and 19% on continued weak sales at boutiques and a
mid-single-digit percentage sales decline to major department
stores and off-price retailers.
"We are operating in unchartered territories," said Chief
Executive and Chairman Jeffrey Lubell in the company's earnings
call. "While True Religion is certainly not immune to these events,
we remain acutely attuned to the changes in the macro
environment."
True Religion expects to offset expected weaker wholesale sales
some with the continued growth of its own stores. The jeans maker
plans to add 25 new locations this year and have a total of 80
stores by the end of 2010.
Competing brands are also feeling some pain from the economy. 7
For All Mankind's wholesale business began seeing some softness
around October, with consumers opting to buy jeans in the $150 to
$200 price range, instead of those costing north of that, said VF's
President of Contemporary Brands Coalition, Mike Egeck. In general,
shoppers also bought one pair of jeans, instead of the usual two or
three, Egeck said.
"Across our distribution channels (including Barneys, Nordstrom
and Saks), their businesses have been challenged," Egeck said in an
interview, noting retail partners were staying conservative as they
aimed to keep inventories lean.
But Egeck said 7's 15 standalone retail outlets were performing
in line with the company's expectations, and VF still planned to
open nine to 15 new locations this year.
"We're still bullish on the long-term viability of this brand,"
said Egeck, noting 7 could grow to be a $1 billion business.
The smallest of the three players, Joe's Jeans, also expects
2009 to be "a much more challenging environment," one executive
said at a recent Roth Capital Partners analyst conference. The
brand, which opened its first full-priced retail outlet last year,
is launching a lower-price point jean of $138 this year "to capture
a wider market."
-By Kelly Nolan, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4049;
kelly.nolan@dowjones.com