CALGARY,
AB, Jan. 17, 2023 /CNW/ - InPlay Oil Corp.
(TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) ("InPlay" or the "Company") is pleased to
announce that its Board of Directors have approved a capital
program of $75 – $80 million for 2023 which is forecasted to
deliver annual average production of 9,500 – 10,500
boe/d(1) (58% – 61% light oil and NGLs).
InPlay's record-setting financial and operational performance in
2022 has the Company entering 2023 in a very strong financial
position allowing for the continued execution of our core strategy
of providing top-tier light-oil weighted production per share
growth with significant free adjusted funds flow
("FAFF")(2) generation, while delivering sustainable
returns to shareholders through our base dividend and share buyback
initiatives. The Company exited 2022 with its lowest ever level of
net debt to earnings before interest, taxes and depletion
("EBITDA")(2), estimated at approximately
0.2x(3), with significant liquidity from our
$110 million credit facility
providing InPlay with the ability to opportunistically capitalize
on strategic opportunities. Strong drilling results from the
development of our top-tier drilling inventory and the positive
outlook for crude oil and NGL prices has InPlay well positioned to
deliver continued strong operational and financial results in
2023.
2023 Capital Program Overview
The Company's Board of Directors have approved a capital program
for 2023 of $75 – $80 million. InPlay believes that the macro
outlook for oil prices is more positive than the macro outlook for
natural gas prices and as such the Company has pivoted its 2023
capital program towards higher oil weighted properties. Through the
acquisition of Prairie Storm in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the
development of a high productivity and high rate of return gassier
area in Pembina through 2021 and early 2022, InPlay's natural gas
weighting increased however, revenues generated in 2022 at higher
year over year prices from natural gas sales only increased by
approximately 5% over 2021 to 20% of total corporate revenue as
natural gas represents a small portion of our overall revenue.
While InPlay benefited from strong natural gas pricing in 2022, the
Company is now focused on increasing its light oil weighting to
take advantage of that commodity and maximizing funds flow. The
Company's adjustment to higher oil weighted locations is forecast
to result in approximately 14% - 24% oil production growth in 2023
which will benefit in generating strong Adjusted Funds Flow
("AFF")(4) even in an uncertain natural gas pricing
environment. The 2023 capital program will see InPlay drill
approximately 15.0 – 16.0 net Extended Reach Horizontal ("ERH")
Cardium wells, the most in the Company's history. In addition,
InPlay plans to drill a minimum of 2.0 net wells in the Belly River
which currently produces approximately 90% light oil.
InPlay's 2023 capital program is forecasted to deliver the
following(5):
- Annual average production of 9,500 – 10,500 boe/d (58% – 61%
light oil & NGLs), focused on drilling higher oil weighted
plays, delivering;
-
- Increase in total light oil production of 14% – 24% over
2022;
- Production growth per debt adjusted weighted average basic
share(2) of 16% – 36% over 2022 which is expected to be
top-tier debt adjusted per share growth amongst InPlay's light oil
weighted peers;
- Total annual light oil and NGLs production weighting of 58% –
61%, an increase of approximately 5% over 2022;
- Operating income profit margin(2) of approximately
62%;
- AFF(4) of $126 –
$138 million;
- FAFF(2) of $46 –
$63 million;
- Base dividend of $15 –
$16 million generating a total payout
ratio(6) of approximately 70% at the current monthly dividend rate
of $0.015/share ($0.18/share annualized) ; and
- Ample unallocated FAFF which can be used to fund additional
return of capital to shareholders or opportunistically applied to
potential tactical capital investments.
The table below highlights our 2023 guidance at our current
share price:
|
2023(5)
|
WTI
(US$/bbl)
|
80.00
|
Production (boe/d)
(1)
|
9,500 –
10,500
|
Capital ($
millions)
|
75 – 80
|
Net wells
|
17.0 – 18.0
|
DAPPS Growth (%)
(2) *
|
16 – 36
|
AFF ($ millions)
(4)
|
126 – 138
|
FAFF ($ millions)
(2)
|
46 – 63
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt) at Year-end ($ millions) (4)
|
(2) – 10
|
Dividend ($
millions)
|
15 – 16
|
Annual Net Debt /
EBITDA (2)
|
(0.1) –
(0.1)
|
EV / DAAFF (2)
*
|
2.1 – 1.8
|
* Assumes a $3.00
share price
|
|
• The amounts
above do not include potential future purchases through the
Company's normal course issuer bid ("NCIB").
|
• See "Reader
Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements" for
updated key metrics and underlying assumptions related to our long
term forecast for 2024 and 2025.
|
InPlay's natural gas takeaway capacity has tightened in
Willesden Green throughout 2022 due to actively drilling with
strong results. As InPlay focuses its drilling program in the
oil-weighted Willesden Green Cardium in 2023, the Company plans to
invest capital in facility infrastructure to accommodate current
and future drilling. The Company plans to build and upgrade two
operated gas facilities in Willesden Green in the first half of
2023 which will provide InPlay with operated facility capacity that
we control to facilitate production growth in the upcoming
years.
The first quarter of 2023 is expected to be our most active
quarter to date with plans to drill seven (6.2 net) ERH Cardium
wells along with two (0.3 net) non-operated ERH wells. InPlay's
capital program for the first quarter of 2023 was partially
accelerated into 2022 with drilling operations beginning on a
two-well pad in Willesden Green as well as the commencement of
pipeline and facility construction.
In reacting to the drop in forward looking natural gas prices,
the Company also entered into natural gas hedges securing swaps on
10,000 GJ/day of 2023 summer gas (April – October) at an average
price of $3.96 per
GJ.
The Company reacted quickly to the drop in forward natural gas
prices with refinements to our 2023 capital program and will
continue to remain flexible, adaptable and react promptly to
changing commodity prices throughout the year. The Company's
strong financial position allows for continued strong growth to be
projected going forward and the base dividend to be sustainable in
a flat $55 WTI price environment
through 2025 with net debt to EBITDA not exceeding approximately
0.4 times(7).
2022 Update
InPlay's fourth quarter capital program consisted of drilling
one (0.95 net) ERH well in Willesden Green that was brought on
production in October and two (2.0 net) Belly River wells that were
brought on production late in November. In addition, the Company
accelerated certain capital initially planned as part of its 2023
capital program, beginning drilling operations on a two-well pad in
Willesden Green and proactively starting facility and pipeline
construction in the fourth quarter of 2022 to bring on production
promptly after the completion of wells drilled in the first
quarter. This accelerated drilling program and additional facility
construction, in addition to some additional costs incurred on
certain fourth quarter drilling programs, results in estimated
exploration and development capital expenditures of $76 - $78
million(3) for 2022.
Annual average production for 2022 is forecasted to be
approximately 9,150 boe/d(1) (56% – 57% light oil &
NGLs) which is at the lower end of our prior production guidance.
Production at one property in Pembina was hampered by
significant downtime as a third party gas facility optimized its
operations to increase capacity. Increased production volumes at
this facility has also led to elevated line pressure which has
impacted the efficiency of all the wells which are on plunger lift
resulting in a reduction of approximately 435 boe/d (73% light oil
& NGLs) during the fourth quarter. Additionally, production was
affected by severe cold weather hampering field operations
and delays in getting initial production on stream with
certain new wells. The 2022 capital program included a number
of wells predominantly in a prolific area of Pembina with a higher
gas weighting resulting in a forecasted light oil and liquids
weighting of between 56% – 57%.
The table below highlights our updated forecasted 2022
guidance:
|
2022(3)
|
WTI
(US$/bbl)
|
94.25
|
Production (boe/d)
(1)
|
9,100 –
9,200
|
Capital ($
millions)
|
76 – 78
|
Net wells
|
17.5
|
DAPPS Growth (%)
(2)
|
55 – 56
|
AFF ($ millions)
(4)
|
131 – 133
|
FAFF ($ millions)
(2)
|
53 – 57
|
(Net Debt) at Year-end
($ millions) (4)
|
(31) – (32)
|
Dividend ($
millions)
|
3
|
Annual Net Debt /
EBITDA (2)
|
0.2
|
EV / DAAFF
(2)
|
2.1
|
• See Reader
Advisories for previous guidance and underlying
assumptions.
|
Appointment of New Board Member
InPlay is pleased to welcome Mr. Regan
Davis to its board of directors effective immediately. Mr.
Davis is a professional engineer with over 30 years of experience
in the oil and gas industry. He most recently served as the Chief
Executive Officer of STEP Energy Services until his
retirement on September 30, 2022
where he was a co-founder and led the company through multiple
acquisitions, expansion into the United
States and an initial public offering. Mr. Davis has an
extensive resume with exploration and production companies
including management and board positions. He was named Ernst &
Young's Entrepreneur of the Year in 2006, 2014 and 2017. Mr. Davis
holds an ICD.D designation and he has held board positions with
various public, private, and charitable organizations.
InPlay is proud of the progress made to further strengthen the
Company's financial position and asset base. InPlay has grown from
a private company formed in June 2013
into a strong, low leveraged and sustainable public company
providing top-tier returns to shareholders, while surviving a
world-wide pandemic and commodity price collapse. We would like to
thank all of our employees, service providers, shareholders and
directors for their support throughout this journey. Please view
our latest corporate presentation available at
www.inplayoil.com.
For further information
please contact:
|
|
|
Doug Bartole
President and Chief Executive Officer
InPlay Oil Corp.
Telephone: (587) 955-0632
|
Darren
Dittmer
Chief Financial Officer
InPlay Oil Corp.
Telephone: (587) 955-0634
|
Notes:
|
1.
|
See "Reader
Advisories - Production Breakdown by Product Type"
|
2.
|
Non-GAAP financial
measure or ratio that does not have a standardized meaning under
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and GAAP and
therefore may not be comparable with the calculations of similar
measures for other companies. Please refer to "Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures" contained within this press
release.
|
3.
|
Based on estimated,
unaudited year-end 2022 results. See "Reader Advisories – Forward
Looking Information and Statements" for underlying assumptions
related to our estimated, unaudited year-end 2022
results.
|
4.
|
Capital management
measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" contained
within this press release.
|
5.
|
See "Reader
Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements" for key
budget and underlying assumptions related to our 2023 capital
program and associated guidance.
|
6.
|
Supplementary
financial measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures"
contained within this press release.
|
7.
|
InPlay's plans for
2024 and beyond remain preliminary in nature and do not reflect
Board approved capital expenditure budgets at this time.
Accordingly, undue reliance should not be made on the same. See
"Reader Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements"
for key underlying assumptions related to our long term
forecasts.
|
Reader Advisories
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this press release and other materials disclosed by
the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial
performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and
other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning
prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to
similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and
other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to,
or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in
accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance.
Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and
other financial measures provides useful information to
shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the
Company's ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide
increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay's
business performance against prior periods on a comparable
basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms "free
adjusted funds flow", "operating income", "operating netback per
boe", "operating income profit margin", "Net Debt to EBITDA",
"Production per debt adjusted share", "enterprise value to debt
adjusted AFF" and "Payout Ratio". Management believes these
measures and ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial
and operating performance and provide users with similar, but
potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by
other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have
any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be
considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than "profit
(loss) before taxes", "profit (loss) and comprehensive income
(loss)", "adjusted funds flow", "capital expenditures", "corporate
acquisitions, net of cash acquired", "net debt", "weighted average
number of common shares (basic)" or assets and liabilities as
determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company's
performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers FAFF an important measure to identify the
Company's ability to improve its financial condition through debt
repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF
should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful
than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of
the Company's performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF
less exploration and development capital expenditures and property
dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow
remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions
that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate
acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or
potentially return of capital to shareholders. Refer to the
"Forward Looking Information and Statements" section for a
calculation of forecast FAFF.
Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income
Profit Margin
InPlay uses "operating income", "operating netback per boe" and
"operating income profit margin" as key performance indicators.
Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural
gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation
expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before
administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other
non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important
measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates
its field level profitability. Operating income should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income
as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company's performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by
the Company as operating income divided by average production for
the respective period. Management considers operating netback per
boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as
it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of
production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the
Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas
sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an
important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it
demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level
profits from its sales revenue. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of operating
income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit
margin.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as
it is a key metric to identify the Company's ability to fund
financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations.
EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before
interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA
is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is
presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve
months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This
measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the
Company's Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated
as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Net Debt to EBITDA.
Production per Debt Adjusted Share
InPlay uses "Production per debt adjusted share" as a key
performance indicator. Debt adjusted shares should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than common
shares as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company's performance. Debt adjusted shares is a non-GAAP measure
used in the calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and
is calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the
change in net debt divided by the Company's current trading price
on the TSX, converting net debt to equity. Debt adjusted shares
should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful
than weighted average number of common shares (basic) as determined
in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company's
performance. Management considers Debt adjusted share is a key
performance indicator as it adjusts for the effects of capital
structure in relation to the Company's peers. Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Management considers Production per
debt adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts
for the effects of changes in annual production in relation to the
Company's capital structure. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Production per debt adjusted share.
EV / DAAFF
InPlay uses "enterprise value to debt adjusted AFF" or
"EV/DAAFF" as a key performance indicator. EV/DAAFF is calculated
by the Company as enterprise value divided by debt adjusted AFF for
the relevant period. Debt adjusted AFF ("DAAFF") is calculated by
the Company as adjusted funds flow plus financing costs. Enterprise
value is a capital management measures that is used in the
calculation of EV/DAAFF. Enterprise value is calculated as the
Company's market capitalization plus working capital (net debt).
Management considers enterprise value a key performance indicator
as it identifies the total capital structure of the Company.
Management considers EV/DAAFF a key performance indicator as it is
a key metric used to evaluate the sustainability of the Company
relative to other companies while incorporating the impact of
differing capital structures. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
EV/DAAFF.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important
measure of InPlay's ability to generate the funds necessary to
finance capital expenditures. AFF is a GAAP measure and is
disclosed in the notes to the Company's consolidated financial
statements for the year ending December 31,
2021 and the most recently filed quarterly financial
statements. All references to AFF throughout this document are
calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures
and transaction and integration costs. This item is adjusted from
funds flow as decommissioning expenditures are incurred on a
discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on
previous operating assets and transaction costs are non-recurring
costs for the purposes of an acquisition, making the exclusion of
these items relevant in Management's view to the reader in the
evaluation of InPlay's operating performance. The Company also
presents AFF per share whereby per share amounts are calculated
using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the
calculation of profit (loss) per common share.
Net Debt / Working Capital
Net debt / working capital is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in
the notes to the Company's consolidated financial statements for
the year ending December 31, 2021 and
the most recently filed quarterly financial statements. The Company
closely monitors its capital structure with a goal of maintaining a
strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The
Company monitors net debt / working capital as part of its capital
structure. The Company uses net debt / working capital (bank debt
plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts
receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and deposits
and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt.
Management considers net debt / working capital an important
measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Supplementary Measures
"Average realized crude oil price" is comprised of
crude oil commodity sales from production, as determined in
accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's crude oil
production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation
costs and do not include gains and losses on financial
instruments.
"Average realized NGL price" is comprised of NGL
commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with
IFRS, divided by the Company's NGL production. Average prices are
before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains
and losses on financial instruments.
"Average realized natural gas price" is comprised of
natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in
accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's natural gas
production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation
costs and do not include gains and losses on financial
instruments.
"Average realized commodity price" is comprised of
commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with
IFRS, divided by the Company's production. Average prices are
before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains
and losses on financial instruments.
"AFF per weighted average basic share" is comprised
of AFF divided by the basic weighted average common shares.
"AFF per weighted average diluted share" is
comprised of AFF divided by the diluted weighted average common
shares.
"AFF per boe" is comprised of AFF divided by total
production.
"Total payout ratio" is calculated as dividends paid
or declared plus capital expenditures divided by adjusted funds
flow. Management believes that total payout ratio provides a useful
measure of the Company's capital reinvestment and dividend policy,
as a percentage of the amount of adjusted funds flow.
Forward-Looking Information and Statements
This news release contains certain forward–looking information
and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws.
The use of any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue",
"estimate", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans",
"intends", "forecast", "targets", "framework" and similar
expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or
statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this
news release contains forward-looking information and statements
pertaining to the following: all estimates and guidance related to
the year ended 2022 results; the Company's planned 2023 capital
program including wells to be drilled and completed and the timing
of the same; 2023 guidance based on the planned capital program
including forecasts of 2023 annual average production levels, debt
adjusted production levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted
funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit margin,
and growth rates; light oil and NGLs weighting estimates; the
projection that the base dividend is sustainable in a flat
$55 WTI price environment through
2025; expectations regarding future commodity prices including the
prospect that 2023 will be a challenging year for natural gas
prices and the belief that the light crude oil market will continue
to be strong; the Company's business strategy, milestones and
objectives; the expectation that the first quarter of 2023 will be
the Company's most active quarter to date; future liquidity and
financial capacity; future results from operations and operating
metrics and capital guidance; management's assessment of potential
drilling inventory; future costs, expenses and royalty rates;
future interest costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn;
all preliminary forecasts related to our long range forecast
through 2025; and methods of funding our capital program.
The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying
our Board approved 2023 capital budget and associated guidance, as
well as management's preliminary strategy, and associated plans,
goals and targets in respect of 2024 and 2025, are subject to
change in light of, without limitation, the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic, the Russia/Ukraine conflict and any related actions taken
by businesses and governments, ongoing results, prevailing economic
circumstances, volatile commodity prices, resulting changes in our
underlying assumptions, goals and targets provided herein and
changes in industry conditions and regulations. InPlay's financial
outlook and guidance provides shareholders with relevant
information on management's expectations for results of operations,
excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions, for such time
periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. In this
press release reference is made to the Company's longer range 2024
and 2025 internal plan and associated economic model. Such
information reflects internal goals and targets used by management
for the purposes of making capital investment decisions and for
internal long-range planning and future budget preparation. Readers
are cautioned that events or circumstances and updates to
underlying assumptions could cause capital plans and associated
results to differ materially from those predicted and InPlay's
guidance for 2023, and more particularly its internal plan, goals,
targets and guidance for 2024 and beyond which are not based upon
Board approved budget(s) at this time, may not be appropriate for
other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on
the same.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that
the Company's future dividend payments to shareholders of the
Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the
discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company's
dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends,
if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things,
levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the
Company's operations and execution of its growth strategy,
fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing
and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability
and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other
factors beyond the Company's control. Further, the ability of the
Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws,
including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business
Corporations Act (Alberta),
and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions
contained in the agreements governing the Company's outstanding
indebtedness.
Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number
of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which
have been used to develop such statements and information but which
may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the
expectations reflected in such forward looking statements or
information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on
forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance
that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to
other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein,
assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the
impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the
economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the
timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of
InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a
timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of
the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to
operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the
ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the
timing and amount of purchases under the Company's NCIB; field
production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and
expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition,
development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline,
storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to
secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices;
that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be
satisfied; expectations regarding the potential impact of COVID-19
and the Russia/Ukraine conflict; currency, exchange and
interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and
environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay
operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil
and natural gas products.
The forward-looking information and statements included herein
are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly
relied upon. Such information and statements, including the
assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual
results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in
such forward-looking information or statements including, without
limitation: the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the
Russia/Ukraine conflict; inflation and the risk of a
global recession; changes in our planned 2023 capital program;
changes in our approach to shareholder returns, including in
relation to the Company's NCIB and the timing and amount of any
potential purchases thereunder; changes in commodity prices and
other assumptions outlined herein; the risk that dividend payments
may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for variation
in the quality of the reservoirs in which we operate; changes in
the demand for or supply of our products; unanticipated operating
results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental
laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in
development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third party
operators of our properties; changes in our credit structure,
increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate
estimation of our light crude oil and natural gas reserve and
resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to
capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance
coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks
detailed from time-to-time in InPlay's continuous disclosure
documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual Information Form and
our MD&A.
This press release contains future-oriented financial
information and financial outlook information (collectively,
"FOFI") about InPlay's financial and leverage targets and
objectives, potential dividends and share buybacks, all of which
are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and
qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. The actual
results of operations of InPlay and the resulting financial results
will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this press release
and such variation may be material. InPlay and its management
believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis,
reflecting management's best estimates and judgments. However,
because this information is subjective and subject to numerous
risks, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of
future results. Except as required by applicable securities laws,
InPlay undertakes no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained
in this press release was made as of the date of this press release
and was provided for the purpose of providing further information
about InPlay's anticipated future business operations and strategy.
Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release
should not be used for purposes other than for which it is
disclosed herein.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this
news release speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not
assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the
included forward-looking statements or information, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as
may be required by applicable securities laws.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution
and actual results of the Company's 2023 capital program and
associated guidance and long-term forecast include:
- volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent
difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
- changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
- the Company's ability to secure financing for the Board approve
2023 capital program and longer term capital forecast sourced from
AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity issuance,
infrastructure financing or some combination thereof;
- those additional risk factors set forth in the Company's
MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on
SEDAR
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI
The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the
Company in the development of its current and previous 2022
guidance, 2023 guidance and preliminary forecasts for 2024 and 2025
are as follows:
Current Guidance and Forecast
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2021
|
Updated
Guidance
FY 2022
|
Guidance
FY 2023
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2024
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2025
|
WTI
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$67.91
|
$94.25
|
$80.00
|
$75.00
|
$70.00
|
NGL Price
|
$/boe
|
|
$37.79
|
$50.55
|
$45.80
|
$43.00
|
$40.00
|
AECO
|
$/GJ
|
|
$3.44
|
$5.03
|
$3.40
|
$4.50
|
$4.65
|
Foreign Exchange
Rate
|
CDN$/US$
|
|
0.80
|
0.77
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
MSW
Differential
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$3.88
|
$1.80
|
$3.20
|
$3.00
|
$3.00
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
5,768
|
9,100 –
9,200
|
9,500 –
10,500
|
10,250 –
11,250
|
10,950 –
11,950
|
Royalties
|
$/boe
|
|
5.51
|
11.25 –
11.80
|
8.75 – 10.25
|
7.50 – 9.00
|
6.00 – 7.50
|
Operating
Expenses
|
$/boe
|
|
12.83
|
11.00 –
14.00
|
11.75 –
14.75
|
11.00 –
14.00
|
10.50 –
13.50
|
Transportation
|
$/boe
|
|
1.11
|
1.05 – 1.30
|
1.10 – 1.35
|
1.00 – 1.25
|
0.90 – 1.15
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
2.67
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
General and
Administrative
|
$/boe
|
|
2.83
|
2.40 – 2.95
|
2.25 – 2.95
|
2.15 – 2.85
|
2.05 – 2.75
|
Hedging loss
(gain)
|
$/boe
|
|
6.20
|
1.90 – 2.20
|
(0.50) –
(0.75)
|
–
|
–
|
Decommissioning
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$1.4
|
$2.0 – $2.5
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
$5.0 – $5.5
|
$5.0 – $5.5
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$47.0
|
$131 – $133
|
$126 – $138
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Dividends
|
$ millions
|
|
-
|
$3
|
$15 – $16
|
$15 – $16
|
$15 – $16
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2021
|
Updated
Guidance
FY 2022
|
Guidance
FY 2023
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2024
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2025
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$47.0
|
$131 – $133
|
$126 – $138
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Capital
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$33.3
|
$76 – $78
|
$75 – $80
|
$76 – $81
|
$77 – $82
|
Free Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$13.6
|
$53 – $57
|
$46 – $63
|
$57 – $74
|
$62 – $77
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2021
|
Updated
Guidance
FY 2022
|
Guidance
FY 2023
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2024
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2025
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$47.0
|
$131 - $133
|
$126 – $138
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
2.67
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
EBITDA
|
$ millions
|
|
$52.6
|
$136 – $138
|
$128 – $140
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($80.2)
|
($31) –
($32)
|
($2) – $10
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Net
Debt/EBITDA
|
|
|
1.5
|
0.2
|
(0.1) –
(0.1)
|
(0.2) –
(0.4)
|
(0.5) –
(0.6)
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2021
|
Updated
Guidance
FY 2022
|
Guidance
FY 2023
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2024
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2025
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
5,768
|
9,100 –
9,200
|
9,500 –
10,500
|
10,250 –
11,250
|
10,950 –
11,950
|
Opening Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($73.7)
|
($80.2)
|
($31) –
($32)
|
($2) – $10
|
$38 – $50
|
Ending Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($80.2)
|
($31) –
($32)
|
($2) – $10
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Weighted avg.
outstanding shares
|
# millions
|
|
69.8
|
86.9
|
87.9
|
88.0
|
88.0
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
1.16(4)
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
Prod. per debt adj.
share growth(2)
|
|
|
31 %
|
55% – 56%
|
16% – 36%
|
17% – 36%
|
18% – 37%
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2021
|
Updated
Guidance
FY 2022
|
Guidance
FY 2023
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2024
|
Updated
Forecast
FY 2025
|
Share outstanding, end
of year
|
# millions
|
|
86.2
|
87.1
|
88.0
|
88.0
|
88.0
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
2.18(3)
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
Market
capitalization
|
$ millions
|
|
$188
|
$261
|
$264
|
$264
|
$264
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($80.2)
|
($31) –
($32)
|
($2) – $10
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Enterprise
value
|
$millions
|
|
$268.2
|
$292 – $293
|
$254 – $266
|
$214 – $226
|
$172 – $183
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$47.0
|
$131 - $133
|
$126 – $138
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
2.67
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
Debt Adjusted
AFF
|
$ millions
|
|
$49.7
|
$136 – $138
|
$128 – $140
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
EV/DAAFF
|
|
|
5.4
|
2.1
|
2.1 – 1.8
|
1.7 – 1.4
|
1.3 – 1.1
|
The change in the forecasted 2022 net debt level from prior
guidance results from an increase in capital expenditures and
decrease in adjusted funds flow as a result of a reduction to
production and a higher natural gas weighting of total
production.
Previous Guidance and Forecast
|
|
|
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2022(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2023(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2024(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2025(1)
|
WTI
|
US$/bbl
|
|
|
$93.25
|
$75.00
|
$70.00
|
$65.00
|
NGL Price
|
$/boe
|
|
|
$50.50
|
$43.00
|
$40.00
|
$37.25
|
AECO
|
$/GJ
|
|
|
$5.15
|
$4.90
|
$4.50
|
$4.65
|
Foreign Exchange
Rate
|
CDN$/US$
|
|
|
0.77
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
MSW
Differential
|
US$/bbl
|
|
|
$1.90
|
$3.75
|
$3.75
|
$3.75
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
|
9,150 –
9,400
|
9,900 –
10,400
|
10,650 –
11,200
|
11,300 –
11,900
|
Royalties
|
$/boe
|
|
|
10.10 –
11.60
|
7.75 – 9.25
|
6.25 – 7.75
|
5.00 – 6.50
|
Operating
Expenses
|
$/boe
|
|
|
11.00 –
14.00
|
10.50 –
13.50
|
10.00 –
13.00
|
9.50 – 12.50
|
Transportation
|
$/boe
|
|
|
1.05 – 1.30
|
1.00 – 1.25
|
0.90 – 1.15
|
0.85 – 1.10
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.00 – 0.50
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
General and
Administrative
|
$/boe
|
|
|
2.40 – 2.95
|
2.25 – 2.75
|
2.20 – 2.70
|
2.15 – 2.65
|
Hedging loss
(gain)
|
$/boe
|
|
|
1.90 – 2.20
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
Decommissioning
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$2.0 – $2.5
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
$5.0 – $5.5
|
$5.0 – $5.5
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$139 – $143
|
$134 – $140
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
Dividends
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$2 – $3
|
$15 – $16
|
$15 – $16
|
$15 – $16
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2022(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2023(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2024(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2025(1)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$139 – $143
|
$134 – $140
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
Capital
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$70 – $72
|
$69 – $71
|
$75 – $77
|
$80 – $82
|
Free Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$67 – $73
|
$63 – $71
|
$59 – $67
|
$51 – $59
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2022(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2023(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2024(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2025(1)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$139 – $143
|
$134 – $140
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.00 – 0.50
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
EBITDA
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$143 – $147
|
$135 – $141
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
|
($14) –
($18)
|
$25 – $32
|
$63 – $69
|
$91 – $98
|
Net
Debt/EBITDA
|
|
|
|
0.1 – 0.2
|
(0.2) –
(0.3)
|
(0.4) –
(0.5)
|
(0.6) –
(0.7)
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2022(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2023(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2024(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2025(1)
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
|
9,150 –
9,400
|
9,900 –
10,400
|
10,650 –
11,200
|
11,300 –
11,900
|
Opening Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
|
($80.2)
|
($14) –
($18)
|
$25 – $32
|
$63 – $69
|
Ending Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
|
($14) –
($18)
|
$25 – $32
|
$63 – $69
|
$91 – $98
|
Weighted avg.
outstanding shares
|
# millions
|
|
|
86.9
|
87.1
|
87.1
|
87.1
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
Prod. per debt adj.
share growth(2)
|
|
|
|
61% – 66%
|
25% – 32%
|
19% – 26%
|
14% – 21%
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2022(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2023(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2024(1)
|
Previous
Forecast
FY
2025(1)
|
Share outstanding, end
of year
|
# millions
|
|
|
87.1
|
87.1
|
87.1
|
87.1
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
3.50
|
Market
capitalization
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$305
|
$305
|
$305
|
$305
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
|
($14) –
($18)
|
$25 – $32
|
$63 – $69
|
$91 – $98
|
Enterprise
value
|
$millions
|
|
|
$319 – $323
|
$273 – $280
|
$236 – $242
|
$207 – $214
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$139 – $143
|
$134 – $140
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
|
1.20 – 1.60
|
0.00 – 0.50
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
Debt Adjusted
AFF
|
$ millions
|
|
|
$143 – $147
|
$135 – $141
|
$136 – $142
|
$133 – $139
|
EV/DAAFF
|
|
|
|
2.1 – 2.2
|
2.0 – 2.1
|
1.7 – 1.8
|
1.5 – 1.6
|
(1) As
previously released November 9, 2022.
|
(2)
Production per debt adjusted share is calculated by the Company as
production divided by debt adjusted shares. Debt adjusted shares is
calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the
change in working capital (net debt) divided by the Company's
current trading price on the TSX, converting working capital (net
debt) to equity. Future share prices assumed to be consistent with
the current share price.
|
(3)
Ending share price at December 31, 2021.
|
(4)
Weighted average share price throughout 2021.
|
• See "Production
Breakdown by Product Type" below
|
• Quality and
pipeline transmission adjustments may impact realized oil prices in
addition to the MSW Differential provided above
|
• Changes in
working capital (net debt) are not assumed to have a material
impact between Dec 31, 2021, Dec 31, 2022 and Dec 31,
2023.
|
• The assumptions
above do not include potential future purchases through the
Company's NCIB.
|
Production Breakdown by Product Type
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in this press
release consists of the constituent product types as defined in
NI 51–101 and their respective quantities disclosed in the
table below:
Current Guidance and Forecast
|
Light and
Medium
Crude
oil
(bbls/d)
|
|
NGLS
(boe/d)
|
|
Conventional
Natural
gas
(Mcf/d)
|
|
Total
(boe/d)
|
FY 2022 – Updated
Guidance
|
3,805
|
|
1,385
|
|
23,760
|
|
9,150(1)
|
FY 2023 –
Guidance
|
4,520
|
|
1,385
|
|
24,570
|
|
10,000(2)
|
FY 2024 – Updated
Forecast
|
4,655
|
|
1,565
|
|
27,180
|
|
10,750(3)
|
FY 2025 – Updated
Forecast
|
4,900
|
|
1,685
|
|
29,190
|
|
11,450(3)
|
|
|
Notes:
|
|
1
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2022 production guidance range of 9,100
to 9,200 boe/d
|
2
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2023 production guidance range of 9,500
to 10,500 boe/d
|
3
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's updated annual production forecast
range
|
4
|
With respect to
forward–looking production guidance, product type breakdown is
based upon management's expectations based on reasonable
assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well
results
|
Previous Guidance and Forecast
|
Light and
Medium
Crude
oil
(bbls/d)
|
|
NGLS
(boe/d)
|
|
Conventional Natural
gas
(Mcf/d)
|
|
Total
(boe/d)
|
FY 2022 – Previous
Guidance
|
4,014
|
|
1,340
|
|
23,530
|
|
9,275(1)
|
FY 2023 – Previous
Forecast
|
4,355
|
|
1,380
|
|
26,500
|
|
10,150(2)
|
FY 2024 – Previous
Forecast
|
4,660
|
|
1,500
|
|
28,600
|
|
10,925(2)
|
FY 2025 – Previous
Forecast
|
4,590
|
|
1,645
|
|
32,200
|
|
11,600(2)
|
Notes:
|
|
1.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2022 previous production guidance range
of 9,150 to 9,400 boe/d.
|
2.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's previous annual production forecast
range.
|
3.
|
With respect to
forward–looking production guidance, product type breakdown is
based upon management's expectations based on reasonable
assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well
results.
|
References to crude oil, NGLs or natural gas production in this
press release refer to the light and medium crude oil, natural gas
liquids and conventional natural gas product types, respectively,
as defined in National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure
for Oil and Gas Activities ("Nl 51-101").
BOE Equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalents or BOEs may be misleading,
particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf:
1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily
applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value
equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on
the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is
significantly different than the energy equivalency of 6:1,
utilizing a 6:1 conversion basis may be misleading as an indication
of value.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.