Aktia’s economic forecast: The period of strong growth is behind us
02 June 2022 - 3:00PM
Aktia’s economic forecast: The period of strong growth is behind us
Aktia Bank PlcPress release2 June 2022 at 8.00 a.m.
Aktia’s economic forecast: The period
of strong growth is behind us
According to Aktia’s
Chief Economist Lasse Corin, the coronavirus pandemic was a
deep and short shock for the economy, whereas Russia’s attack on
Ukraine will cause a less deep but drawn
out period of uncertainty. He predicts a very
moderate economic growth for next year.
In the economic forecast published today by Aktia, Chief
Economist Lasse Corin predicts that the economic growth will slow
down to 1.6% this year and be a modest 0.9% next year. “As the
coronavirus pandemic and its economic impact has been driven to the
background, Russia's attack on Ukraine plunged the world economy
into a new period of uncertainty,” says Lasse Corin.
The Finnish export and industry survived the pandemic with
little damage because Finland produces various kinds of investment
and industrial commodities for foreign companies. The current
situation is different. “We expect the economic uncertainty caused
by the war to be clearly more drawn out, which weakens the
willingness of foreign companies to invest and, consequently, the
export prospects of Finnish companies,” says Corin.
There is also a small gleam of hope on the horizon of Finland's
exports. The depreciation of the euro will improve the
competitiveness of Finnish export companies and soften the blow to
their economies.
As far as imports are concerned, Corin sees that the greatest
risk is related to the availability of imported goods rather than
the increase in import prices.
The strain on the growth of private consumption this year and
next year is caused by more than one factor, but consumption also
has one obvious stimulus. “The balancing of the uncertainty and the
inflation risks comes from service consumption. The corona
restrictions have been dismantled and consumers can finally eat out
and use other services The growth in service consumption will
balance the otherwise weak outlook for consumption. However, it is
important to remember that the coronavirus has not been defeated
for good and the recovery of the demand for services requires that
the pandemic remains under control,” Corin points out.
In Finland, the acceleration of inflation is mainly due to the
rising prices of imported products and not due to the exceptionally
high domestic demand, unlike in the United States. Corin predicts
that consumer prices will increase, i.e. that inflation will occur,
by 5.1% in 2022 and slow down to 1.9% in 2023. “Finland is a small
country. We have no option but to embrace the price development of
the global market with open arms, and that is what the high
inflation rates in Finland are all about,” says Corin.
Further information
Lasse Corin, Chief Economist, tel. +358 40 8080 635, lasse.corin
(at) aktia.fi
Lotta Borgström, Director, Investor Relations and
Communications, tel. +358 10 247 6838, lotta.borgstrom (at)
aktia.fi
Aktia is a Finnish asset manager, bank and life insurer that has
been creating wealth and wellbeing from one generation to the next
for 200 years. We serve our customers in digital channels
everywhere and face-to-face in our offices in the Helsinki, Turku,
Tampere, Vaasa and Oulu regions. Our award-winning asset management
business sells investment funds also internationally. We employ
approximately 900 people around Finland. Aktia's assets under
management (AuM) 31/12/2021 amounted to EUR 15.5 billion and the
balance sheet total was EUR 11.7 billion. Aktia's shares are listed
on Nasdaq Helsinki Ltd (AKTIA). aktia.com
- Aktia_Chief Economist Overview
Aktia Bank Abp (LSE:0QF8)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
Aktia Bank Abp (LSE:0QF8)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024
