AVI GLOBAL TRUST
PLC
Monthly Update
AVI Global Trust plc (the "Company")
presents its Update, reporting performance figures for the month
ended 31 July
2024.
This Monthly Newsletter is available
on the Company's website at:
https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2024/08/AGT-JULY-2024.pdf
Performance Total Return
This investment management report
relates to performance figures to 31 July 2024.
Total Return (£)
|
Month
|
Calendar Yr
to date
|
1Y
|
3Y
|
5Y
|
10Y
|
AGT NAV
|
1.0%
|
8.3%
|
20.9%
|
31.2%
|
66.8%
|
172.2%
|
MSCI ACWI
|
0.0%
|
12.2%
|
17.2%
|
28.0%
|
61.0%
|
203.9%
|
MSCI ACWI ex US
|
0.7%
|
7.3% |
9.9%
|
14.2%
|
29.3%
|
98.0%
|
Manager's Comment
AVI Global Trust (AGT)'s NAV rose +1.0% in
July
D'Ieteren (+36bps), IAC (+29bps) and
Chrysalis (+28bps) were the most significant contributors.
Christian Dior (-31bps) was the largest detractor during a month in
which LVMH reported half year results, followed by Entain (-27bps)
and Partners Group Private Equity (-21bps).
August
Over the last few trading days, we
have seen considerable volatility in global equity and currency
markets.
In Japan, the Yen has moved from a
near 40-year low against the dollar of 162 to 143 at the time of
writing (5th August). In turn Japanese equities have been hit very
hard by indiscriminate selling, with the TOPIX having fallen more
than -20% in very short order. There are clear signs of panic
selling and unwinding of leveraged positions, but the ongoing rally
in Yen and heightened levels of risk aversion could extend the
panic to other areas of the market - particularly where assets are
excessively priced.
History tells us that as
uncomfortable as such environments are whilst they play out, they
also present highly attractive opportunities at prices few imagined
possible just a few weeks ago. We have been adding to several
positions.
FEMSA
We last wrote about FEMSA in
the
May 2023 newsletter. At the time
the shares stood at around $100. From this point they rose to a
high of a little above $140. Over this time, we exited nearly 30%
of our position at an average price of $118 and as high as $133.
The shares have subsequently fallen back, and we have recently been
re-adding to the position below $110.
As readers may remember, we
initiated a position in FEMSA in 2021, with an investment case
predicated on the highly attractive nature of FEMSA Comercio -
which operates Oxxo-branded convenience stores, and other
small-format retail stores, across Mexico and Latin America. The
business is expertly managed, with strong unit economics, earning
high returns on capital with a long growth runway.
Despite these attractions, FEMSA
traded at an unduly low valuation reflecting its conglomerate group
structure, and we believed the market was mispricing the potential
for management to take steps to unlock value.
Over time this was indeed what
occurred, with management conducting a strategic review which
concluded in 2023 in the exiting of Heineken and other non-core
asset sales totalling >$11bn. This has simplified the group
structure and the equity story and has allowed for excess capital
to start flowing back to shareholders, with the company launching
the first buyback in its history.
However, in recent months the shares
have come under pressure. The Mexican presidential election saw a
sharp selloff in Mexican equities and with FEMSA accounting for
~13% of the MSCI Mexico the shares got whacked.
More recently, Q2 results published
in July fell short of expectations, with a deceleration in Oxxo's
Same Store Sales (SSS) growth to +4.1% (from 9.7% in Q1), with both
traffic and ticket size decelerating (from +2.2% to -0.6% for
traffic and from +7.3% to +4.7% for ticket). As management
explained "the second quarter was
an atypical one… where each month reflected a unique set of mixed
effects generally more negative than positive".
We concur that this recent
disappointment is temporary in nature reflecting short-term
headwinds and expect SSS growth will recover in the second half of
the year and into 2025. Bigger picture, management indicate that
going forward they believe SSS growth can likely exceed the old
rule of thumb of +5% achieved prior to 2019. As well as this, we
see a long growth runway for new stores, with current new store
openings running at +1,621 over the last twelve months (+7.3% yoy),
with further growth on top of this from Brazil (where Oxxo operate
in a JV with Cosan's Raizen) and the US (where the company recently
announced a small but strategic acquisition).
In recent years there has been
considerable progress in terms of gross margin expansion (Q2
+400bps vs. 2019) however this has been absorbed by higher
operating expense with operating profit margins essentially
unchanged. Over time we see scope for this to improve, driving
higher rates of growth in operating profit, which we think can
compound in the teens for a number of years ahead.
Despite the significant strides
management have taken to simplify the group, the shares still trade
at a significant discount, with the stub trading at 9.2x NTM EBITDA
vs. a historic long-term average of c.13x. We believe this to be a
highly attractive valuation and see the scope for
better-than-expected capital returns, with management already
having returned 60% of the $3bn billed to be returned by 2026, and
further returns of capital required to meet management's leverage
target.
To date the investment in FEMSA has
generated a +49% ROI / +21% IRR versus +24% / +9% for the MSCI AC
World Index (all figures in £).
Contributors / Detractors (in GBP)
Largest Contributors
|
1- month
contribution
bps
|
% Weight
|
D'Ieteren
|
36
|
5.8
|
IAC
|
29
|
2.9
|
Chrysalis Investments
|
28
|
4.0
|
Rohto Pharmaceutical
|
28
|
2.9
|
Harbourvest Global
|
23
|
3.9
|
Largest Detractors
|
1- month
contribution
bps
|
% Weight
|
Christian Dior
|
-31
|
2.8
|
Entain
|
-27
|
2.7
|
Partners Group PE
|
-21
|
5.6
|
Symphony International
Holdings
|
-17
|
1.9
|
News Corp
|
-14
|
8.4
|
Link Company Matters Limited
Corporate Secretary
7 August 2024
LEI: 213800QUODCLWWRVI968
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