TIDMBOIL

RNS Number : 0739Q

Baron Oil PLC

16 February 2023

The information contained within this announcement is deemed by the Company to constitute inside information pursuant to Article 7 of EU Regulation 596/2014 as it forms part of UK domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 as amended.

16 February 2023

Baron Oil Plc

("Baron", or the "Company")

Competent Person's Report on UK Licence P2478 ("Dunrobin")

Baron Oil Plc (AIM:BOIL), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration and appraisal company, is pleased to announce that a copy of a Competent Person's Report ("CPR") prepared by the RPS Group ("RPS") on Dunrobin for Licence Administrator Reabold Resources Plc on behalf of the Joint Venture ("JV"), in which Baron has a 32% non-operated working interest, can be viewed here: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0739Q_1-2023-2-15.pdf, and will be published shortly on the Company's website at: www.baronoilplc.com . The Dunrobin licence is situated in the Inner Moray Firth.

The CPR has been prepared in accordance with the June 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System ("SPE PRMS") as the standard for reporting. A summary of the gross and net Prospective Resources is given in the table below.

Key Points from the CPR

   --     201 mmboe(1) aggregate(2) gross unrisked Pmean Prospective Resources on licence P2478 

-- The Dunrobin West prospect ("Dunrobin West") estimated to contain 119mmboe gross unrisked Pmean Prospective Resources aggregated across the Jurassic and Triassic stacked targets(3)

-- 34% Geological Probability of Success (Pg) at Dunrobin West Jurassic primary target with an estimated 71mmbbl (gross) of Pmean Prospective Resources

-- Seismic response at the Jurassic target at Dunrobin West interpreted to be a possible gas cap and a gas oil contact

-- Dunrobin West geologically analogous to the Beatrice field, which produced in excess of 140mmbbl

   --     Secondary Triassic target included in formal resource assessment for the first time 

-- The Company has aggregated unrisked net Pmean Prospective Resources in the CPR and estimates Baron's farm up arrangement of August 2021 has increased the Company's share of aggregate unrisked net Pmean Prospective Resources on licence P2478 from 30mmboe to 64mmboe at a capped cost to Baron of GBP160,000

(1) The CPR reports oil and gas Prospective Resources. The oil equivalent value of the gas resources has been estimated by the Company using a factor of 1 barrel of oil to 6 thousand cubic feet of gas.

2 The unrisked aggregation was performed by the Company and assumes that all prospects at all levels are successful.

3 The unrisked aggregation of Dunrobin West was performed by the Company. The volumes were presented for each reservoir in the CPR and, at the Company's request, were not aggregated probabilistically.

Management Commentary

Management estimates, which differ from RPS mainly in their approach to statistical volumetric estimation, for Dunrobin West for the Jurassic alone remain in excess of Pmean 100mmbbl* gross unrisked Prospective Resources. Dunrobin West has been proposed by the JV to be the location of the first exploration well on the licence. Management believes that a single vertical borehole on Dunrobin West to a total depth of c.800 metres can test both Jurassic and Triassic targets at an estimated gross drilling cost of GBP8.6 million on a dry hole basis. A farmout campaign to attract additional funding is underway.

Jon Ford, Technical Director of Baron commented...

"We are pleased that the CPR provides independent confirmation for the Company's belief that the western part of the Dunrobin complex has matured into a drillable prospect where a relatively low-cost exploration well can target more than 100 MMbbl* of gross Pmean Prospective Resources with low geological risk. It validates our decision in 2021 to enter into a farm up arrangement which more than doubled our working interest in the licence to a more meaningful 32% by promoting and accelerating the Phase A work programme to a technically high standard at relatively modest cost.

"The publication of the CPR will add impetus and credibility to the ongoing farmout campaign which has already attracted industry interest ."

Technically Recoverable Prospective Resources

The table below summarises RPS's independent assessment of Gross Prospective Resources as at the CPR's effective date of 30 September 2022, from which are derived the Net Prospective Resources attributable to Baron's 32% effective interest, wholly within the P2478 licence areas. Totals are by arithmetic summation.

 
 Prospective              Gross Attributable to                         Net Attributable to                Risk    Operator 
   Resources                      Licence                                     Baron Oil                   Factor 
                                                                                                          (GPoS) 
-------------  -------------------------------------------  -------------------------------------------  -------  ---------- 
                  Low        Best       High       Mean        Low        Best       High       Mean 
                Estimate   Estimate   Estimate    Estimate   Estimate   Estimate   Estimate    Estimate 
-------------                                                                                            -------  ---------- 
                  (1U)       (2U)       (3U)                   (1U)       (2U)       (3U) 
-------------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
 Technically recoverable resources - Oil (mmbbl) 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                                                    Reabold 
   Dunrobin                                                                                                        Resources 
     West                                                                                                            North 
   Jurassic        7          42        168         71          2          13         54         23        34%        Sea 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
     West 
   Triassic        7          34         98         45          2          11         31         15        12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Jurassic        1          8          67         22         0.4         2          21          7        31%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Triassic        1          9          56         22         0.3         3          18          7        14%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Jurassic        4          12         27         14          1          4          9           5        27%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Triassic        7          20         43         23          2          6          14          7        12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
  Aggregate 
  Oil (mmbbl)      27        125        459         197         8          39        147         64 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
 Technically recoverable resources - Associated & Non-associated 
  Gas (bscf) 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                                                    Reabold 
   Dunrobin                                                                                                        Resources 
     West                                                                                                            North 
   Jurassic        2          7          22         10         0.8         2          7           3        34%        Sea 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
     West 
   Triassic        1          4          11          5         0.2         1          3           2        12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Jurassic       0.1         1          7           2         0.04       0.3         2           1        31%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Triassic       0.1         1          6           2         0.03       0.3         2           1        14%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Jurassic       0.4         1          3           2         0.1        0.4        1.0         0.5       27%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Triassic       0.8         2          5           3         0.3        0.7        1.5         0.9       12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
  Aggregate 
   Gas (bcf)       4          16         54         24          1          5          17          8 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
 Oil equivalent (mmboe) 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                                                    Reabold 
   Dunrobin                                                                                                        Resources 
     West                                                                                                            North 
   Jurassic        7          43        172         73          2          14         55         23        34%        Sea 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
     West 
   Triassic        7          35        100         46          2          11         32         15        12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Jurassic        1          8          68         22         0.3         3          22          7        31%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Dunrobin 
      C&E 
   Triassic        1          9          57         22         0.3         3          18          7        14%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Jurassic        4          12         28         14          1          4          9           5        27%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
   Golspie 
   Triassic        7          20         44         24          2          7          14          8        12%         " 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
  Aggregate 
      Oil 
  equivalent 
    (mmboe)        28        128        468         201         8          42        150         65 
               ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ----------  -------  ---------- 
 

Notes:

-- Company has aggregated P90, P50, P10 and Mean values arithmetically. This is not statistically correct, and may not sum exactly due to rounding factors.

-- "Gross Attributable" are 100% of the resources attributable to the licence whilst "Net Attributable" are those attributable to Baron's effective interest in the licence (32%) before economic limit test.

-- Includes a mix of associated gas and non-associated gas from Dunrobin West Gas Cap, all others are associated gas only

   --      Mean is defined as the arithmetic average of successful outcomes 

-- Mmboe calculation, using a factor of 1 barrel of oil to 6 thousand cubic feet of gas, has been provided by Baron for reference for the purposes of this announcement. See announcement glossary for basis of calculation

Qualified Person's Statement

Pursuant to the requirements of the AIM Rules - Note for Mining and Oil and Gas Companies ("AIM MOG"), the technical information and resource reporting contained in this announcement has been reviewed by Jon Ford BSc, Fellow of the Geological Society, Technical Director of the Company. Mr Ford has more than 40 years' experience as a petroleum geoscientist. He has compiled, read and approved the technical disclosure in this regulatory announcement and indicated where it does not comply with the Society of Petroleum Engineers' SPE PRMS standard.

* Not SPE PRMS compliant.

For further information, please contact:

 
Baron Oil Plc                                                    +44 (0) 20 7117 2849 
Andy Yeo, Chief Executive 
 
Allenby Capital Limited                                          +44 (0) 20 3328 5656 
Nominated Adviser and Broker 
Alex Brearley, Nick Harriss, George Payne (Corporate 
Finance) 
Kelly Gardiner (Sales and Corporate Broking) 
IFC Advisory Limited                                             +44 (0) 20 3934 6630 
Financial PR and IR                                     baronoil@investor-focus.co.uk 
Tim Metcalfe, Florence Chandler 
 
 

Glossary

 
bscf                                                        Billion standard cubic feet of gas. 
Best Estimate or 2U                                         Denotes the mid estimate qualifying as Prospective 
                                                            Resources. Reflects a volume estimate that 
                                                            there is a 50% probability that the quantities actually 
                                                            recovered will equal or exceed the 
                                                            estimate. 
Risk factor, Geological Probability of Success, Pg or GPoS  The estimated geological probability of success that 
                                                            exploration activities will confirm the 
                                                            existence of a significant accumulation of potentially 
                                                            recoverable petroleum. 
High Estimate or 3U                                         Denotes the high estimate qualifying as Prospective 
                                                            Resources. Reflects a volume estimate 
                                                            that there is a 10% probability that the quantities 
                                                            actually recovered will equal or exceed 
                                                            the estimate. 
Low Estimate or 1U                                          Denotes the low estimate qualifying as Prospective 
                                                            Resources. Reflects a volume estimate that 
                                                            there is a 90% probability that the quantities actually 
                                                            recovered will equal or exceed the 
                                                            estimate. 
Mean or Pmean                                               Reflects a mid-case volume estimate of resource derived 
                                                            using probabilistic methodology. This 
                                                            is the mean of the probability distribution for the 
                                                            resource estimates and may be skewed by 
                                                            resource numbers with relatively low probabilities. 
mmbbl                                                       Million barrels of oil. 
mmboe                                                       Million barrels of oil equivalent. Volume derived by 
                                                            dividing the estimate of the volume of 
                                                            natural gas in billion cubic feet by six in order to 
                                                            convert it to an equivalent in million 
                                                            barrels of oil and, where relevant, adding this to an 
                                                            estimate of the volume of oil in millions 
                                                            of barrels. 
Prospective Resources                                       Quantities of petroleum that are estimated to exist 
                                                            originally in naturally occurring reservoirs, 
                                                            as of a given date. Crude oil in-place, natural gas 
                                                            in-place, and natural bitumen in-place 
                                                            are defined in the same manner. 
SPE PRMS                                                    The Society of Petroleum Engineers' ("SPE") Petroleum 
                                                            Resources Management System ("PRMS"): 
                                                            a system developed for consistent and reliable definition, 
                                                            classification, and estimation 
                                                            of hydrocarbon resources prepared by the Oil and Gas 
                                                            Reserves Committee of SPE and approved 
                                                            by the SPE Board in June 2018 following input from six 
                                                            sponsoring societies: the World Petroleum 
                                                            Council, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 
                                                            the Society of Petroleum Evaluation 
                                                            Engineers, the Society of Exploration Geophysicists, the 
                                                            European Association of Geoscientists 
                                                            and Engineers, and the Society of Petrophysicists and Well 
                                                            Log Analysts. Quantities of petroleum 
                                                            estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially 
                                                            recoverable from undiscovered accumulations 
                                                            by application of future development projects. The total 
                                                            quantity of petroleum that is estimated 
                                                            to exist originally in naturally occurring reservoirs, as 
                                                            of a given date. Crude oil in-place, 
                                                            natural gas in-place, and natural bitumen in-place are 
                                                            defined in the same manner. 
 

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