By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for May delivery rose 1.5% to $7.08 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, ahead of the expiration this weekend of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

--Corn for May delivery rose 0.3% to $6.35 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for May delivery fell 1% to $14.78 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Uncertain Times: Wheat traders were concerned about whether talks between Russia and Ukraine to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative would be successful. The main issue is the length of the extension, with Russia wanting to extend the deal for 60 days, versus the original term of 120 days. This may cause confusion among shipments that leave port after this weekend, Arlan Suderman of StoneX said in a note. The deal is set to expire Sunday.

Moving Weight: Flash sales of U.S. corn to China reached 2.11 million metric tons this week, with the USDA confirming Friday morning a sale of another 191,000 tons for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year. As a result, corn futures gained over 3% this week and could travel higher if China keeps up its pace of buying next week. "We think they might be back in for another large round before shifting to physical shipments from Brazil this June," Terry Reilly of Futures International said.

INSIGHT

Breaking the Bank: In the short term, concerns about the banking sector are expected to be the chief focus for commodity traders, Capital Economics said in a note. "Next week, attention will remain firmly on any signs of stress in the global banking system," the firm said. "If banking stresses appear to have been cauterized, then commodity prices could rise over the week as risk appetite returns."

U.S. May Fall to Second: For the first time since the marketing year of 2012/13 Brazilian corn exports will exceed those from the U.S., according to USDA forecasts. Brazil is expected to export 50 million tons, compared with 47 million from the U.S., according to a USDA report. Corn exports from Brazil are expected to be a stiff competitor to the U.S. going forward, with the country's acreage to greatly surpass that of the U.S. However, U.S. yields are expected to stay significantly better. "Possible Brazilian leadership in corn exports may not be temporary," professors with the University of Illinois' agricultural department said in a research note.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Livestock Slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 17, 2023 16:17 ET (20:17 GMT)