Soybean Futures Rise on Changing Brazilian Forecast -- Daily Grain Highlights
By Kirk Maltais
-- Soybeans for January delivery rose 2% to $13.67 a bushel on
the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday as traders expect Brazilian
weather patterns to revert to being unsupportive for crops in the
-- Corn for December delivery rose 0.6% to $4.69 3/4 a
-- Wheat for December delivery fell 1.1% to $5.44 1/2 a
Back on the Offensive: The weather outlook for the next few
weeks in Brazil is a source of support for CBOT soybeans.
"There are some forecasts for scattered showers this week in
central and northern Brazil and drier conditions in the south,"
said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in a note. "It could be a
pattern change but current forecasts call for rains to move south
again and dry conditions to return to the north the following
Adverse weather in Brazil, including drought in the north and
excessive rain in the south, could become a major damper for
Brazil's otherwise sizable crops.
Lukewarm Reception: CBOT wheat was underwater throughout the
session, weighed down by fund traders offloading futures contracts
amid little indication of improving export demand.
"The U.S. is not doing any business and there's ideas that the
U.S. winter wheat crop is off to one of its better starts in
years," said Joel Karlin of Ocean State Research.
Corn often follows the movement of wheat futures, but found some
support throughout the day on a flash sale of 104,000 metric tons
to Mexico announced by the USDA this morning.
Holiday Week: Choppy futures in a holiday-shortened week are
expected for grains, which are trading on light volumes, leaving
them susceptible to big moves.
"[We] advised clients that we were expecting trading lows to be
set early this week," says AgResource in a note.
One factor adding to volatility is uncertainty around the agenda
of Argentina's newly elected President Javier Milei and what it
could mean for the country's exports.
Foot Off the Gas: Export inspections fell for the week ended
Nov. 16, says the USDA. The agency's latest grain export
inspections report says that corn inspections were reported at
553,899 metric tons, down from 707,374 tons reported last week.
Soybean inspections were reported at 1.61 million tons, down
from 1.94 million tons. Soybeans are also lower than they were at
this time last year, while corn inspections are higher.
For the current marketing year, corn inspections are ahead of
last year's pace, up 24% to 6.81 million tons versus 5.51 million
tons last year. Soybean inspections are down 8.3% from last year,
to 15.92 million tons. Wheat inspections totaled 358,254 tons,
which is up from 222,572 tons reported last week and 291,427 tons
at this time last year.
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production
and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.
-- The USDA is due to release its monthly Cold Storage Report at
3 p.m. EST Wednesday.
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its farm labor report at 3
p.m. EST Wednesday.
-- The USDA is due to release its monthly livestock slaughter
report at 3 p.m. EST Wednesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 20, 2023 15:49 ET (20:49 GMT)
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