BOSTON, May 23, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- The risk of missing out on the competitive
advantage quantum computing offers is rising. Governments and
private investors worldwide are placing multi-billion-dollar bets
that the industry will produce huge long-term returns. Yet, for
this to be realized, the theoretical advantage of quantum computers
must be translated into real-world commercial value. In this
article, IDTechEx explores which applications are being developed
today across the materials, chemical, automotive, finance, and
healthcare industries.
For more information on the technology differentials of quantum
computing hardware platforms, timelines for commercial readiness,
and twenty-year market forecasts, see the IDTechEx report, "Quantum
Computing Market 2024-2044: Technology, Trends, Players,
Forecasts".
The quantum advantage simplified
Quantum computers use quantum bits instead of classical bits.
Their special quantum properties allow them to represent both a '1'
and a '0' at once in superposition and work together in an
entangled group. Without understanding the physics behind this and
how it works, what matters most from an end-user perspective is its
impact on computational capabilities. In a classical machine, N
number of bits can represent N number of states. By contrast, in a
gate-based quantum computer N number of qubits can represent
2N number of states. Or, as put by Sir Peter Knight at the New Scientist Emerging
Technology Summit 2024, just 300 good qubits could represent
more states than there are atoms in the visible universe. This not
only exponentially reduces the time it can take to solve certain
existing problems but also provides a means to tackle harder and
more complex ones.
For now, classical supercomputers have trillions of classical
bits, and many quantum computers available only have a handful of
useful qubits. Yet as worldwide efforts are concentrated on scaling
up the hardware, end-users are already developing real-world
use-cases. This trend can be found across multiple industry
verticals, with many players angling to become early adopters and
realize a competitive advantage as soon as it is available.
A qualitative assessment of how timelines to commercial value
can be tracked by the use-case development stage of end-users and
the progression in hardware development. The marker of 'today' is
an average across both gate-based and annealing platforms. Source:
IDTechEx
Material simulation: drugs discovery and battery
chemistry
Simulating material properties at the nanoscale, or other words
at the atomic level, is incredibly compute-intensive with classical
machines. Moreover, some of these simulations have a reputation for
not being particularly accurate—for example, predicting that an
insulating material will be a conductor.
This has an impact in fields dependent on material discovery and
simulation across many industry verticals, which is infamous for
being a very time-consuming and costly experimental process.
However, in parallel with the interest in materials informatics to
solve this challenge are many investigations into the application
of quantum computing to significantly accelerate materials
discovery timelines.
One important example of this is within drug discovery. Players
such as Janssen Pharmaceuticals are investigating how quantum
computing can be used to make screening of potential drug
candidates more efficient, as well as be applied for molecular
simulations. This work can specifically relate to the applications
in crystal structure predictions or binding affinity, as well as
property predictions, including toxicity.
Material property simulation and target finding are also
high-value problems in battery chemistry innovations. While
classical approaches to materials informatics based on classical
computing can enhance our understanding of battery chemistry, it is
likely to remain less efficient than quantum computing at modeling
chemical reactions at a molecular or sub-atomic level. Simulations
of electron interactions can also provide a more accurate
understanding of chemical reactions at anodes and cathodes, such as
the degradation-inducing formation of oxides. Quantum computing can
thus accelerate the development of higher-performance batteries by
performing calculations beyond the capability of their classical
counterparts.
Banking and Finance: pricing optimization and
fraud detection
The finance sector has been amongst the earliest to engage with
quantum technology. This is in part because of the criticality of
robust data security in finance and, as such, preparing for the
risks posed by quantum computing alongside the integration of
quantum communications solutions such as quantum key distribution
and post-quantum cryptography.
However, beyond the quantum risks to finance, there are also a
host of potential opportunities, specifically in pricing
optimization and fraud detection. With quantum
computing, pricing optimization could consider many more
influencing factors than it does today, evaluating the combined
impact of currency, location, sustainability, supply chain,
geopolitics, and more. As for fraud detection, the
capability to analyze banking activity with a quantum computer
could make security protocols much more streamlined. The
erroneously blocked card upon the purchase of the first holiday
coffee would become a thing of the past.
At the 2024 New Scientist Emerging Technology Summit, HSBC
outlined their strategy of building dedicated in-house expertise to
develop quantum-ready products in these areas – which can be
deployed as soon as the hardware is ready. Yet HSBC are not
alone in exploring quantum computing – indeed, there is activity
from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays, Mastercard, Citi, and many
more. However, some of these companies are choosing to use third
parties to build use cases rather than invest in in-house teams. In
the current era of a quantum talent shortage, particularly within
industry, the role of the expert middleman is looking particularly
lucrative.
Automotive and Aerospace: Fluid dynamics and the paint shop
problem
The mega-trends in future mobility are broadly electrification
and autonomy. Of course, the applications in battery chemistry
simulations are of keen interest to the automotive community – who
are amongst the most active in this research area from a commercial
side. This is covered in much more depth in the IDTechEx Quantum
Computing report. However, outside of material discovery – quantum
computing also offers an edge in other areas, such as fluid
dynamics and logistics.
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are a crucial
part of the design process within both automotive and aerospace.
However, for very complex scenarios, the hypothesis of industry
leaders such as Rolls Royce is than for iterative design of jet
engine designs – the efficiency of a quantum solution could be
hugely valuable.
By contrast, the application of quantum computing to logistics
and operations more widely could be transformative. The multi-car
paint shop problem is an example similar to the pricing
optimizations within finance, whereby workflow scheduling, which
accounts for a higher number of variables, will likely be better
solved with a quantum computer. For example, D-wave are already
ramping up productions scale deployment of an auto-scheduling
product using annealing with partners of the Pattison Food
Group.
Market Outlook and Conclusions
Overall, the general themes of 'optimization and complex
simulation problems' come up time and time again as killer
applications for quantum computers. Across the pharmaceutical,
chemical, healthcare, automotive, finance, aerospace industries,
and more – quantum expertise is rising in value.
Even though skepticism remains in some instances as to the
likelihood of a universal, large-scale fault-tolerant quantum
computer ever being realized as promised, there is even more
disagreement as to what timelines value will realistically be
realized within each industry.
Yet, for many, the risk of missing out and falling behind is too
high not to engage. Looking ahead, IDTechEx anticipates the rising
awareness of the risks posed by quantum technology, specifically
within quantum communications and data security, will likely become
a gateway for more commercial players to begin considering the
opportunities quantum computing could bring them. Going forward,
potential end-users must tread the line of being neither too
cautious nor too enthusiastic in response to 'quantum hype'.
With so many competing quantum computing technologies across a
fragmented landscape, understanding the differences between each
approach is essential in identifying realistic opportunities for
growth within this exciting industry. IDTechEx's report "Quantum
Computing Market 2024-2044: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts"
covers the hardware that promises a revolutionary approach to
solving the world's unmet challenges. Drawing on extensive primary
and secondary research, including interviews with companies and
attendance at multiple conferences, this report provides an
in-depth evaluation of the competing quantum computing
technologies: superconducting, silicon-spin, photonic, trapped-ion,
neutral-atom, topological, diamond-defect, and more.
To find out more about this report, including downloadable
sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/QuantumComputing.
For the full portfolio of quantum technologies market research
from IDTechEx, including the broader Quantum Technology Market and
more in-depth research relating to Quantum Communications and
Quantum Sensors, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Quantum.
About IDTechEx:
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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