Fed's Dudley Mindful of Market Trouble, Won't Say What Is Next for Fed -- 2nd Update
13 February 2016 - 6:01AM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK--Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William
Dudley said Friday that it is unclear whether unsettled financial
markets will knock the U.S. economy off course and change the
outlook for U.S. central bank interest rate policy.
The official also said new evidence suggests that it might take
even longer to get inflation back to levels desired by the central
bank, in comments that also pushed back against those who are
speculating that the Fed might have to provide new stimulus to the
economy.
"The U.S. economy is in quite good shape" and it has "quite a
bit of momentum" to carry it forward, Mr. Dudley told reporters at
a gathering held at his bank on household-debt issues. But he
added: "We are definitely aware" of what is happening right now in
financial markets and overseas economies, and that will be taken
into account when the Fed decides what it will be doing with its
interest-rate policy decisions.
Mr. Dudley, who also serves as vice-chairman of the interest
rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, declined to say whether
volatility and big losses in asset markets had changed how central
bankers are thinking about the future rate rises most expect are
likely to happen this year.
"We are data dependent, so we are not going to be definitive and
say we are absolutely not going to do X or do Y, because the data
could change. And if the data were to change in a substantial way
that could definitely affect our decision," he said.
Mr. Dudley's upbeat view on the economy's underlying strength
came in the wake of two days of congressional testimony on the
economy and policy outlook by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. The
central-bank leader affirmed that she continues to expect the
economy to grow, allowing the Fed to raise rates gradually.
But her comments came amid more financial-sector woes that again
raised the specter of a recession befalling the U.S. Markets
continue to doubt the Fed will be able to deliver the number of
rate raises officials have penciled in. The FOMC next meets in
March, and few see a rise in rates happening then.
Mr. Dudley said he doesn't necessarily see what is happening in
markets as being tied to the U.S. Events are "not really reflecting
developments so much in the U.S. as developments abroad. There are
questions about China's economic development prospects. There are
questions about the degree of strain put on emerging market
economies due to the weakness in commodities and energy prices," he
said.
Mr. Dudley did note that there has been a "significant
tightening" in financial conditions given the volatility, but even
there, he said there were upsides for the U.S. such as a weaker
dollar and lower long-term borrowing costs.
Mr. Dudley also said the roiling debate over whether the Fed
might need to resort to a new round of stimulus by way of a
negative rate policy is way overdone.
"I find that an extremely premature conversation to be having.
The U.S. economy is in quite good shape," Mr. Dudley said. "There
are a lot of things we would do" on the stimulus front before
considering pushing short-term borrowing costs into subzero
territory.
Mr. Dudley acknowledged that renewed declines in energy prices
and a further easing in expectations of future inflation suggest
getting inflation back to desired levels could take a bit longer.
"I certainly still expect to meet the 2% objective over the longer
term," Mr. Dudley said. "But at the margin" that process will
likely take longer, he said.
Mr. Dudley said in his formal speech that the U.S. central bank
might be limited in what it could do to deal with an unexpected
economic downturn. "Monetary policy is appropriately still quite
accommodative despite the advancing age of the expansion," he said.
"While this limits to an extent the degree to which monetary policy
can aggressively respond to any adverse events, the good news is
that the economy is more resilient to any shocks."
"Key sectors of the U.S. economy, such as the household sector,
seem to be in good shape," Mr. Dudley said. "The financial system
is also clearly much stronger, with the banking system much better
capitalized and with much larger liquidity buffers than in the
years preceding the financial crisis."
The official repeated his view that expansions don't die simply
of old age, but instead are often ended by central-bank response to
rising inflation or unexpected shocks. "Since the possibility is
low that a significant inflation risk would emerge over the near
term, this means that the main danger facing the current expansion
is the risk of large, adverse shocks," Mr. Dudley said.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 12, 2016 13:46 ET (18:46 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.