By Steve Gelsi

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- Wall Street has tempered its outlook on the solar panel business, even as the alternative energy sector looks toward a boost from the incoming Obama administration.

While Obama pledges to promote green-collar jobs under his economic stimulus package, the near-term outlook for solar panel manufacturers remains cloudy in the face of tight credit, less money available for subsidies overseas and other challenges.

The plus and minus of the business drew ratings changes by at least three Wall Street research firms this week.

Cowen & Co. lowered its estimates across the solar-stock universe, including sector leader First Solar (FSLR), the largest U.S. solar panel maker by market cap.

While Cowen sees a 50% upside to First Solar share price performance verses the broad market in the next 12 months, lower shipments and revenue are in store for the company, Cowen noted.

While the industry is hoping for help from an Obama stimulus bill, questions remain over whether it'll provide enough of a lift in the short term.

Solar analyst John Hardy for Broadpoint.AmTech downgraded giant solar panel maker Suntech Power Holdings (STP) to neutral.

While shares of the company have doubled from November lows, the company faces a "difficult solar earnings season defined by limited visibility into the first half of 2009," Hardy said in a note to clients.

Looking ahead, Hardy said he'd be willing to assign a sell rating on the stock, "if demand continues to deteriorate to the point where we do not believe the company can service its debt obligations through cash flow from operations."

While most analysts remain bearish for the first half of the year, some are tweaking their forecasts based on better conditions closer to 2010.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Sanjay Shrestha said limited access to capital has caused issuers throughout the solar value chain to decrease or cancel capacity-expansion plans globally, but prospects may soon brighten.

Shrestha upgraded shares of Suntech (STP) to buy from hold and LDK Solar (LDK) to hold from sell.

"We believe shares of Suntech are pricing in the challenging fourth quarter and first half of 2009," Shrestha said. "The company's long-term pricing and procurement leverage should result in gradual margin expansion by the second quarter with meaningful improvement in the second half."

Despite wild swings in stock prices and a short-term slowdown in the business, venture capitalist Maurice Gunderson, senior partner at CMEA Ventures of San Francisco, maintains that the fundamentals of the solar energy business point to rapid growth.

He warned that big changes under the Obama administration will take time, even as optimism in the alternative energy sector continues to build.

"It's so incredibly refreshing to have someone who actually picks scientists to be in his administration and shows signs of actually listening to them," Gunderson said. "I've been in the energy sector for 35 years, and the problem we've faced is that it's easy to dream up new products to save energy, but oil and gas and electricity are just way too cheap. That situation is changing, and the Obama administration is showing all kinds of signs that they understand the problems and will act on them. It's wonderful."

Gunderson acknowledged that Obama has already drawn jests from mavens in the oil and gas sector who dismiss his likely energy policy as unicorns on treadmills.

"Expectations may be too high in the short term because we want quick fixes to big problems," he said. "The problem took 100 years to create. It's not going to be fixed in six months by anybody. I see this as a five or ten year fix."

CMEA Ventures continues to invest in solar energy as it approaches price parity with coal in electricity production, he said.

President-elect Barack Obama on Friday is scheduled to visit wind turbine component manufacturer Cardinal Fastener & Specialty Co. in Bedford Heights, Ohio, as he travels from Illinois to Washington for his inauguration.

Obama has called for a doubling of renewable energy production within three years to drive the economic recovery.

Obama's nominee for energy secretary, Steven Chu, boasts a résumé that includes not only a 1997 Nobel Prize for physics, but a record of solar, wind and ethanol support.

In his confirmation hearing this week, Chu voiced support both for domestic nuclear power and oil and gas drilling, as well as solar plants and a "smart grid" to bring more wind power to market.

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