The number of U.S. companies freezing their pension plans this year will represent the tip of the iceberg compared with the volume in years to come, according to pension experts.

Although a range of well-known corporations already have frozen their pensions - including Motorola Inc. (MOT), newspaper publisher McClatchy Co. (MNI) and insurer Aon Corp. (AOC) - there hasn't been a deluge of such decisions, which keep earned benefits intact but effectively bar employees from accruing more in the future. Actuaries and pension consultants say that many companies are so focused on resolving their overall business issues in the current economic climate that they can't focus on major, permanent shifts in employee benefits right now, but likely will re-evaluate their commitment to pensions beginning next year.

"When you look back at the last bear market from 2000 to 2002, the bulk of the uptick in plan closures and freezes happened after 2002. Companies had to deal with their immediate business issues first before addressing longer-term benefit planning," said Michael Archer, chief actuary at Towers Perrin. "Right now, most companies are saying, yes, pension issues are a problem, but we're not looking to close or freeze plans right away. It's in 2010 and 2011 where we could see higher activity, and get a better handle on the long-term effects of the downturn."

Right now changes to another type of retirement savings tool, 401 (k) plans, are far more common, most likely because any halt in company contributions is seen as a temporary measure that can be relatively easy to reverse in the future. There are also likely more freezes to come for traditional pension plans, experts agree, though the level is unlikely to top the pace seen in 2006, when many corporations decided to change their employee benefits as the Pension Protection Act (PPA), with a host of new regulations, was being signed into law.

"If you look back to 2006 and 2007, when a lot more plans were frozen, there were a few things that were the big drivers," said Scott Jarboe, a principal in benefits consultant Mercer's retirement, risk and finance business. "First, there were new (accounting) rules that drove more transparent reporting of pension details on the balance sheet. The second and more important issue was that the PPA was being finalized, and in most cases, corporations anticipated an increase in plan costs and volatility. A third, less fundamental issue, was that so many plan sponsors were freezing their pensions, that it created an opportunity to do the same and remain competitive," said Jarboe "The activity at that point was not driven by financially distressed companies," he said. "The issue we're going to see today is that plan sponsors who may have reviewed their plan designs and intend to remain committed to defined benefit pensions may be in such financial stress that they may have no choice but to freeze versus other more dramatic cost cutting measures."

There's disagreement among pension experts as to whether this economic climate will sound the death knell for traditional defined benefit plans in the years to come. In companies with unionized workforces, it will be harder to dislodge plans even if management has the desire. And while the market downturn has clearly exposed the risks involved with keeping a pension plan during tough times, there are advantages to having one under better conditions.

"Companies make two assumptions when they provide defined-benefit pensions: one, that contributions are tax-deductible; and secondly, companies count on the prospect that the market will subsidize the cost of the pension during good years," said Caitlin Long, head of the pensions solutions group at Morgan Stanley (MS).

Dan Yu, director of Eisner LLP's wealth management division, says he believes old-fashioned pensions were headed toward extinction even without the jolt they received from the market in 2008. "I would say, over the next decade, whether we are coming out of a recession or not, we'll see fewer. Defined benefit plans are dying dinosaurs. They won't exist in their present form after the next ten to 15 years," he said.

David Speier, a senior retirement consultant at Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW), says he doesn't think the end is near, however. "I don't think that's a possibility. There are still private-sector companies out there that are committed to keeping defined benefit plans. There will be some that stick it out, even though we will clearly see more closures and plan freezes. But we won't be down to zero," he said.

-By Lynn Cowan, Dow Jones Newswires; 301-270-0323; lynn.cowan@dowjones.com