WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.,
July 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/
-- Total and retail light-vehicle sales in July 2014 are expected to reach their highest
levels for the month since 2006, reflecting continuing strength in
the market since spring, according to a monthly sales forecast
developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
For the sixth consecutive month, the retail seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) in July 2014
is demonstrating year-over-year growth and is expected to produce
the second-highest retail SAAR of 2014.
Retail Light-Vehicle Sales
The SAAR for retail sales in July is expected to be 13.8 million
units, an increase of 600,000 vehicles, compared to July 2013, and the second highest so far in 2014
behind 14.1 million units in May. New-vehicle retail sales in
July 2014 are projected to reach 1.2
million units, a 5 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis
from July 2013 (which had one fewer
selling day, compared to July 2014).
Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true
underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.
New-vehicle retail transaction prices in July 2014 are more than $29,000, the highest level ever for the month of
July.
"The industry continues to demonstrate healthy growth, not just
with retail-sales volume, but also with transaction prices," said
John Humphrey, senior vice president
of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. "The combination
of high transaction prices and strong retail-sales volume is
expected to result in consumers spending more than $36 billion on new vehicles in July. That would
be the highest for the month of July since 2005 and an increase of
$3 billion from July 2013."
Total Light-Vehicle Sales
Total light-vehicle sales in July
2014 are expected to hit 1.4 million units, a 5 percent
increase from July 2013. After
stronger-than-expected fleet volume in June, fleet sales in July
are expected to reach 191,000 units, or 13 percent of total
light-vehicle sales, consistent with the level a year ago.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR
Comparisons
|
July
20141
|
June
2014
|
July
2013
|
New-Vehicle Retail
Sales
|
1,243,300
units
(5% higher than July
2013)2
|
1,108,522
units
|
1,138,898
units
|
Total Vehicle
Sales
|
1,434,400
units
(5% higher than July
2013)
|
1,418,520
units
|
1,313,298
units
|
Retail
SAAR
|
13.8 million
units
|
13.3 million
units
|
13.1 million
units
|
Total
SAAR
|
16.6 million
units
|
17.0 million
units
|
15.8 million
units
|
1Figures cited for July
2014 are forecasted based on the first 16 selling days of
the month.
2The percentage change is adjusted based on the
number of selling days in the month (26 days in July 2014 vs. 25 days in July 2013).
Sales Outlook
With a sales pace for the remainder of the year projected to
average 16.5 million units—similar to the levels in March through
July—LMC Automotive is increasing its overall outlook for auto
sales in 2014. Retail light-vehicle sales are forecasted to reach
13.5 million units, up from the previous forecast of 13.4 million,
and total light-vehicle sales are projected at 16.3 million units,
up from 16.2 million.
Vehicles in the premium segments are expected to outpace those
in non-premium segments as smaller, more affordable cars and SUVs
join the ranks of several premium brands in 2014. Specifically, the
small premium car segment is expected to post the strongest
year-over-year growth rate with volume reaching nearly 80,000
units, doubling 2013 sales.
"The automotive industry recovery in the United States, which has had two upward
revisions in the last two months, remains ahead of that of the U.S.
economy, which has been revised down to less than 2 percent for
2014," said Jeff Schuster, senior
vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Further
upward momentum in light-vehicles sales remains a strong
possibility if the remainder of the year keeps pace with recent
months and the expected improvement level in the overall economy is
realized."
North American Production
North American light-vehicle production finished the second
quarter with strong June output of more than 1.4 million vehicles.
As a result, second quarter volume hit 4.3 million vehicles, a 3
percent jump from the first quarter of 2014 and more than 1 percent
above the second quarter of 2013.
Even with the strong second-quarter sales and production,
manufacturers have managed inventory levels with days' supply at a
60-day level in May and June. Healthy inventory levels, coupled
with a more positive outlook for local and export demand, lends to
a more favorable North American production outlook for the second half
of the year. Given this, LMC Automotive has increased its
North American production outlook for 2014 by 200,000 units to 16.8
million vehicles, a 600,000-unit increase from 2013.
About J.D. Power
J.D. Power is a global marketing information services company
providing performance improvement, social media and customer
satisfaction insights and solutions. The company's quality and
satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of
consumers annually. Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power has
offices in North/South America,
Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information on car
reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone
ratings, and more, please visit www.JDPower.com. J.D. Power is a
business unit of McGraw Hill Financial.
About McGraw Hill Financial
McGraw Hill Financial is a leading financial intelligence
company providing the global capital and commodity markets with
independent benchmarks, credit ratings, portfolio and enterprise
risk solutions, and analytics. The Company's iconic brands include
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P
Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL, J.D. Power and McGraw Hill
Construction. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 29
countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.
About LMC Automotive
LMC Automotive is the premier supplier of automotive forecasts
and intelligence to an extensive client base of automotive
manufacturer, component supplier, logistics and distribution
companies, as well as financial and government institutions around
the world. LMC's global forecasting services encompass automotive
sales, production and powertrain expertise, as well as advisory
capability. LMC Automotive has locations in the United States, the UK, France, Germany, China Japan and Thailand and is part of the Oxford, UK-based LMC group, the global leader
in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness
sector. For more information please visit
www.lmc-auto.com.
Media Relations Contacts
John
Tews; J.D. Power; Troy,
Mich.; 248-680-6218; media.relations@jdpa.com
Emmie Littlejohn; LMC Automotive;
Troy, Mich.; 248-817-2100;
elittlejohn@lmc-auto.com
No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the
information in this release without the express prior written
consent of J.D. Power or LMC Automotive.
www.jdpower.com/corporate www.lmc-auto.com
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SOURCE J.D. Power