ORLANDO, Fla., March 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- HELI-EXPO --
In its 17th annual Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchasing
Outlook, Honeywell Aerospace (NYSE: HON) expects that 4,750-5,250
civilian-use helicopters will be delivered during 2015-2019.
Overall, five-year demand for turbine-powered, civil helicopters
remains steady versus the 2014 five-year forecast, with moderate
improvement in new helicopter purchase plans reported, offsetting
the short-term uncertainty of large-fleet operators in the face of
lower energy prices and fluctuating market currencies.
The forecast estimates the five-year share of demand from the
U.S. and Canada at 34 percent, up
nearly eight points on stronger North American buying plans. When
combined with Latin America, the
Western Hemisphere represents 53 percent of the five-year global
demand. Europe's share tallies 24
percent, with the Asia-Oceania region accounting for 14 percent,
and Africa and the Middle East contributing 9 percent.
Operators who intend to purchase a helicopter within the next
five years noted that the age of their current aircraft (which
includes factors such as maintenance costs, performance erosion and
safety concerns), contracted replacement cycle and warranty
expiration were all key reasons for their decision. For those
surveyed, make and model choices for their new aircraft are
strongly influenced by range, cabin size, performance technology
upgrades and brand experience.
"Near-term demand appears stable despite a pullback in 2014
deliveries and ongoing concerns with the energy sector," said
Mike Madsen, president, Defense and
Space, Honeywell Aerospace. "Purchase interest for helicopters in
training, tourism, firefighting and law enforcement categories is
trending up, influenced by increased utilization rates and
helicopter replacement cycles. Interest across these mission
sectors is helping to sustain near-term demand. Looking ahead,
several new platforms are scheduled to enter service over the next
few years, also bolstering overall helicopter demand."
Region-Specific Results
Based on the relative sizes
and directions of new purchase-rate changes, demand estimates
increased modestly compared with 2014. Purchase rates in three of
five regions tracked increased to various degrees, while two
regions experienced moderate declines in new helicopter purchase
rates planned for the next five years.
However, large fleet or "mega" operator requirements not
captured in the survey offset some of the improved purchase
planning results provided by survey respondents. The tumultuous
changes in the energy sector, as well as emerging regional growth
and political issues, have affected fleet expansion plans in select
areas and are restraining some of the near-term expansion that was
expected a year ago. As a result, total projected demand in the
2015 outlook remains roughly in line with 2014.
"With near-term demand for new helicopters running close to
recent volumes, and aircraft lasting longer through replacement
cycles, Honeywell is ready to support both new installations and
fleet upgrades worldwide," Madsen said. "Our propulsion, safety,
navigation, communications and flight services can help aircraft
stay efficient, powerful, reliable and safe throughout their entire
time in the air."
North American purchase expectations rose seven points in this
year's survey and provided a strong base of demand for light single
and twin-engine platforms. Planned improvement in North American
purchases is a significant finding of the 2015 survey and helps
support overall industry demand projections by virtue of the large
fleet active in North America.
European purchase plans also increased despite ongoing weakness
in reported Russian buying plans. The sample of Russian operators
responding in 2014 fell to very low levels, which continues to add
some uncertainty to the overall European results. European purchase
intentions currently tend to favor light single-engine and medium
twin-engine models.
Latin America continues to have
strong fleet replacement and growth expectations, well above the
world average, but 2015 results were a few points lower than the
prior year. In terms of projected regional demand for new
helicopters, Latin America is
contributing the third highest demand among the regions tracked,
trailing North America and
Europe by a modest margin. Latin
American respondents currently favor light single-engine models and
a balance of light and medium twin-engine platforms.
Middle East and Africa leads all regions in new purchase
rates, with up to 32 percent of respondent fleets slated for
turnover with a new helicopter replacement or addition.
Demand in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India
and China) continues to ebb and
flow with stronger results recorded for India in the 2015 survey, while planned
Brazilian and Chinese purchase rates slipped moderately, reflecting
near-term slower economic growth prospects. In both cases, new
helicopter purchase-plan rates still exceed the world average.
Operator Preferences by Class of Helicopter
- Light single-engine helicopters continue to be the most popular helicopter
class, garnering almost half the new purchase interest in the 2015
survey. The Airbus EC130/AS350 series, Bell 407, Bell 505 and
Robinson R66 were the most frequently mentioned models.
- Intermediate and medium twin-engine
helicopters are the second most popular product class, with
approximately 31 percent of total survey participants planning to
buy a new model of this type. The most frequently mentioned models
were the AW139, AW169, Bell 412, EC145T2 and Sikorsky S-76 series.
Emerging super-medium-class helicopters such as the AW189, Bell 525
and EC175 rely on large fleet operators in the energy, natural
resource, and search and rescue sectors for substantial portions of
their demand, and may be underrepresented in the current survey
sample. Near-term interest may be volatile based on conditions in
the energy markets.
- The light twin helicopter class earned
between 18-19 percent of total operator purchase plans in the 2015
survey, with the EC135, Bell 429 and AW109 series helicopters noted
most frequently.
- Heavy multi-engine helicopters, such
as the EC225, AW101 and S-92, registered small but steady levels of
new helicopter purchase plans in the 2015 survey; however, demand
from large oil and gas fleet operators not included in the survey
continues to support volume in the heavy class even though some
near-term replacement activity may be deferred. Mi-8/17 purchase
plans are not fully represented due to limited response from
Russian operators in the 2015 survey.
Satisfaction With Aircraft
Again in this year's
survey, Honeywell asked all respondents to indicate their current
satisfaction over the past year with each model of aircraft they
operate. For models that received more than 25 responses, the make
and models with the highest net scores are the AW139, Robinson R66,
Bell 407, Bell 429, Bell 412, Bell 206L, EC135, EC145, AS350B
series and Sikorsky S-76C.
These top platforms account for over 70 percent of all survey
make and model mentions and can be considered the top current
production helicopters in terms of recent customer satisfaction
attitudes and likelihood to promote. Many other makes and models
currently in production also received excellent scores that did not
make the top 10 list.
Helicopter Use Expected to Increase
Helicopter fleet
utilization is expected to increase this year. Planned increases by
region include:
- North America: 27 percent of
operators plan increases and only 6 percent plan decreases.
- Europe: 10 percent of
operators plan increases and 4 percent plan decreases.
- Latin America: 45 percent of
operators plan increases and only 4 percent plan decreases.
- Middle East and Africa: 18 percent of operators plan increases
and only 3 percent plan decreases.
- Asia-Oceania: 14 percent of operators plan increases and 6
percent plan decreases.
All end-use categories reported increased levels of flight
activity in the 2015 survey. Oil and gas operators reported the
highest flight-hour use per aircraft at approximately 850 hours per
year, followed by tourism with a strong increase to just under 700
hours per year and then law enforcement at more than 600 hours per
year. Emergency medical services, training, firefighting and
general utility were closely grouped at approximately 400-450 hours
per year. The lowest average use was reported by corporate segment
operators at just over 360 hours per helicopter per year.
Methodology
The 2015 outlook presents a snapshot of
the helicopter business at a point in time and reflects the current
business and political environment. This year's survey queried more
than 1,000 chief pilots and flight department managers of companies
operating 3,400 turbine and 400 piston helicopters worldwide. The
survey excluded large fleet or "mega" operators, which were
interviewed separately. Input received from large oil and gas
support and emergency medical service fleet operators is factored
into the overall outlook in addition to the individual flight
department responses. The survey detailed the types of aircraft
operated and assessed specific plans to replace or add to the fleet
with new aircraft.
Supporting Resources
- Read more about Honeywell Aerospace
- Read more about Honeywell's helicopter offerings
- Like Honeywell Facebook
- Subscribe to Honeywell's Corporate RSS feed
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