By Laurence Norman
MUNICH--The head of the international group overseeing the
cease-fire deal in eastern Ukraine said the situation in the region
is at its worst point since last September's lull in fighting, and
warned it may take months for Ukraine to hold local elections in
the east.
"Now it's really a low" point, Lamberto Zannier, the
Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe said during an interview in Munich on Sunday. "I would
say it's the worst since September 1, what we are seeing now."
Mr. Zannier's comments come after senior European officials
warned this weekend that time is running out for Russia and Ukraine
to fully implement the year-old Minsk cease-fire and peace
agreements.
Foreign ministers from the so-called Normandy group--Russia,
Ukraine, France and Germany--met in Munich for 45 minutes on
Saturday morning to discuss the situation.
The Minsk deal required Ukraine to amend its constitution to
hand greater autonomy to its eastern provinces and demanded the end
of violence from pro-Russian separatists. It also committed Moscow
to return control to Kiev of its side of their common border. The
agreement was supposed to be sealed by end-2015.
Local elections were also due to be held across the country,
including in rebel-held Donetsk and Luhansk last year under
Ukrainian law. However only a few of the Minsk pledges have been
fully completed. Elections in the east still haven't occurred.
Mr. Zannier said that in recent weeks, with the political talks
between Kiev and Moscow blocked, there have been a number of
worrying developments on the ground.
He said there have been "systematic violations" of the
cease-fire, with both sides redeploying heavy weapons that had been
withdrawn in line with the Minsk deal. He said pro-Russian
separatists have significantly tightened access in the east to OSCE
monitors and stopped them from traveling at all to the Russian
controlled border--which has been the crossing point for weapons,
kit and fighters over the last two years.
He also pointed to "circumstantial evidence" that equipment is
again flowing over the Ukrainian border from Russia, although his
monitors haven't been able to verify that as they have been
aggressively and repeatedly blocked from visiting rebel-held
territory around the borders, he said.
"Now we are being pushed back every time which raises suspicion
that something is going on," he said. "Why are they blocking us so
systematically? But of course we cannot... report on anything
specific because we are not there."
In recent days, other western officials have also warned of
deteriorating conditions in eastern Ukraine.
"The line of contact has been anything but a peaceful place,"
Gen. Philip Breedlove, the top commander of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization said in Munich on Saturday "It is clear that as
Russia is unhappy with Kiev's progress toward Minsk they will dial
up or down the pressure along the LOC [line of contact] in order to
affect their way forward."
The European Union and the U.S. have tried broad economic
sanctions to the complete implementation of the Minsk deal.
On Saturday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier
warned that while the intensity of fighting in eastern Ukraine was
lower, "we are still a good way away from implementing Minsk."
He added: "I expect that in Kiev and Moscow, everyone
responsible understands that we no longer have unlimited time for
implementing that which was agreed in Minsk."
Mr. Steinmeier said France and Germany wanted to see progress on
several key issues in time for the next ministerial meeting of the
Normandy group, likely in early March, according to diplomats.
These include entrenching the cease-fire and ensuring the local
elections take place in the east under Ukrainian law and with
enough security available to ensure the ballots are free and
fair.
Rebel leaders threatened to hold local elections of their own
last fall but agreed to delay them.
Kiev still has to pass the necessary legislation to hold the
elections and Russia, Ukraine and the rebels are at loggerheads
over which displaced people should be entitled to vote, the role of
Ukraine's electoral commission and security.
Mr. Zannier said the local elections could be a "gamechanger,"
making it easier for Ukraine to work with separatist leaders in
future while securing a place for the Russian-backed rebels in
Ukraine's political process and ensuring the region remains subject
to Ukrainian law.
However, he said it would take some time for the OSCE to
organize and run elections even if all the issues around the format
for the election are resolved. Asked what would be a realistic time
frame for the ballots, Mr. Zannier said "summer or after the
summer."
"We need to have a clear understanding of who is the
guarantor--who is providing a security framework for our observers.
Because we can't just throw them in."
While Western governments have blamed Russia for spurring the
conflict with Ukraine and have placed broad economic and other
sanctions on Moscow for its involvement, there has been growing
frustration with Kiev's failure to implement its part of the Minsk
deal.
"Ukraine has responsibilities with respect to Minsk and it's
critical that it upholds its end of the bargain," U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry said on Saturday.
The Ukrainian government has faced growing opposition to its
agenda in parliament in recent months while tensions within the
governing coalition have flared.
Alexander Grushko, Russia's ambassador to NATO, said the crux of
the problem in Ukraine was Kiev's failure to implement the Minsk
accords and implement autonomous status for eastern Ukraine.
"Violations are growing and shooting is occurring on both
sides," Mr. Grushko said. "We do our best to make the cease-fire
more sustainable.
Julian E. Barnes and Anton Troianovski contributed to this
article.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2016 10:53 ET (15:53 GMT)
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