Earnings Preview: Amgen - Analyst Blog
22 January 2013 - 7:40PM
Zacks
Amgen (AMGN) is
scheduled to report its fourth quarter 2012 results on Jan 23, 2013
after the closing bell.
Last quarter, the company posted a
16.78% positive surprise. Let’s see how things are shaping up prior
to the announcement.
Growth Factors in the Last
Quarter
Last quarter, higher revenues, cost
discipline and a lower share count contributed to the
year-over-year increase in earnings. While we are encouraged by the
company’s performance, we remain concerned about Amgen’s dependence
on Prolia/Xgeva (denosumab) for long-term growth. With several key
products expected to lose patent protection in the next few years,
Amgen has a lot riding on Prolia/Xgeva’s successful
commercialization and label expansion.
Earnings
Whispers?
Our proven model does not
conclusively show that Amgen is likely to beat earnings this
quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive
Earnings ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method) and a
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or at least Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) or Zacks
Rank #3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you
will see below.
Negative Zacks
ESP: This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at
$1.37 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is higher at $1.43. That
is a difference of -4.20%.
Zacks Rank #3
(Hold) : Amgen’s Zacks Rank of 3 however, increases the
predictive power of ESP. That said we also need to have a positive
ESP to be confident for an earnings surprise call.
Other Stocks to
Consider
Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model
shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an
earnings beat this quarter:
Sanofi (SNY),
Earnings ESP of +1.35% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)
Astrazeneca (AZN),
Earnings ESP of +5.80% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
Onyx Pharma Inc.
(ONXX), Earnings ESP of +19.05% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
AMGEN INC (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
ASTRAZENECA PLC (AZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
ONYX PHARMA INC (ONXX): Free Stock Analysis Report
SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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