NDE Indymac Bncp

IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NDE) (�Indymac�� or the �Company�), the holding company for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. (�Indymac Bank��), is providing this update to give investors a detailed view of the Company�s mortgage loan production for the first quarter of 2007. Total loan production for the first quarter was $25.9 billion, down 2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006 but up 27 percent from the first quarter of 2006. The attached schedules give details on Indymac�s mortgage loan production regarding: 1. Loan production by documentation type (i.e. the extent to which income, assets, employment, credit history and appraised value are documented and verified) plus additional detail by various other loan attributes including combined loan-to-value ratio ("CLTV"), FICO score, occupancy status, existence of mortgage insurance and eligibility for sale to the GSEs. 2. Expected lifetime loss percentages for our mortgage loan production as per Standard and Poor's LEVELSR model1, both in the aggregate and by documentation type and other loan attributes. 3. The type and amount of our first quarter production, and the associated credit losses, that would have been eliminated had our recent guideline cuts been fully implemented at the beginning of the quarter. Loan Production by Documentation Type With respect to loan documentation, Indymac segments its loan production into the following five types: Mortgage Loan Documentation Type Description Percentage of Total Mortgage Production � Based on $ Q1-07 Q4-06 Type 1 Borrower documents income, employment and assets. Lender verifies income, employment, assets, credit history and home value (by appraisal). 20% 17% Type 2 Borrower states income and documents employment and assets. Lender assesses income for reasonableness and verifies employment, assets, credit history and home value (by appraisal). 53% 55% Type 3 Borrower does not document or state income but does document employment and assets. Lender verifies employment, assets, credit history and home value (by appraisal). 11% 9% Type 4 Borrower does not document or state income or assets. Lender verifies credit history and home value (by appraisal). 11% 12% Type 5 Reverse mortgages (69% of Indymac�s reverse mortgage originations were FHA insured in Q1-07). Borrower does not document or state income or assets. Lender verifies home value (by appraisal). 5% 7% Total Mortgage Production 100% 100% Key points to take away from the detailed schedules with respect to Indymac's first quarter production: 1. The total production had an average FICO score of 704 and an average CLTV of 74 percent. 2. Only 4 percent of total production had FICO scores less than 620. Of that 4 percent, 76 percent had CLTVs below 90 percent and 60 percent had CLTVs equal to or below 80 percent. 3. 81 percent of total production had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. Of the 19 percent of production with CLTVs greater than 80 percent, 45 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 700 and 76 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 660. 4. With respect to CLTVs by documentation type, 80 percent of Types 2, 3 and 4 had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. 97 percent of Type 4 and 5 loans had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. 5. With respect to FICO scores by documentation type, 82 percent of Types 2, 3 and 4 had FICOs of greater than or equal to 660, and only 2 percent had FICOs below 620. Virtually no Type 3 and 4 loans had FICOs below 620. 6. With respect to occupancy status, 88 percent of total production was owner occupied as a primary residence and 3 percent was owner occupied as a second home. 91 percent of second home and investor properties had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. Of the 9 percent of production for investor properties, 63 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 700 and one percent had FICOs below 620. Expected Lifetime Loss Percentages One of the most independent and comprehensive views of the credit quality of loan production is the estimated lifetime loss percentage as determined by Standard and Poor�s LEVELS model. This model is an objective, third party framework that has been developed and tested over various economic cycles. LEVELS is a regression-based model that determines an estimated lifetime loss at the loan level based upon foreclosure frequency and loss severity for a wide variety of mortgage loans. LEVELS is one of two accepted loss models for loan securitizations�in the mortgage industry and is used to structure mortgage backed securities for sale into the secondary market. The number one driver of the model (i.e., the attribute proven to be the most predictive of loan losses) is the LTV/CLTV ratios, followed by borrower FICO score and then numerous other attributes such as loan size, documentation type, occupancy status, loan purpose, geography and debt-to-income ratio, where income is provided. During the first quarter, 84 percent of Indymac�s loan production was analyzed using the LEVELS model.2 The estimated lifetime loss rate for this production, in the aggregate, was 0.85 percent in Q1-07 versus 0.84 percent in Q4-06 and 0.74 percent in Q1-06. The year-over-year increase was driven by increased volumes and deteriorating credit performance mainly in two products � higher LTV subprime loans and 80/20 piggyback loans � which we have substantially eliminated from our product offerings through recent guideline cutbacks. Loss rates for other production remained roughly the same year-over-year. It is important to put the estimated lifetime loss rates into context. Assuming a 35 percent average loss severity rate when the sale of a foreclosed property takes place, an 0.85 percent estimated lifetime loss rate would mean that an estimated 2.43 percent of all loans produced would end up in foreclosure over the life of a loan pool (0.85 percent divided by 35 percent equals 2.43 percent). The flip side of this is that 97.57 percent of all of these loans are forecasted to succeed and never end up in foreclosure. Key points to take away from the detailed schedules with respect to how loan attributes impacted lifetime loss estimates for Indymac�s Q1-07 production that was run through LEVELS: 1. 53 percent of this production had a LEVELS loss rate of less than 0.48 percent and is therefore considered comparable from a risk perspective to loans sold to the GSEs. 2. Lower documentation requirements on loans are more than offset by other compensating factors, such as lower CLTVs and higher FICOs, with the result that lower documentation loans actually have lower estimated lifetime losses: Documentation Type $ in millions % of Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS Cumulative Lifetime Loss Rate Type 1 4,666� 22% 1.18% Type 2 11,858� 54% 0.90% Type 3 2,468� 11% 0.56% Type 4 2,811� 13% 0.35% Type 5 0� 0% 0% Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS - Evaluated Production 21,803� 100% 0.85% 3. CLTVs have the strongest impact on loss rates: CLTV Range $ in millions % of Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS Cumulative Lifetime Loss Rate < 60% 2,563� 12% 0.03% ?60% < 70% 2,953� 13% 0.24% ?70% ? 80% 12,379� 57% 0.65% >80% < 90% 651� 3% 3.36%3 ?90% ? 95% 1,196� 5% 4.08%3 >95% ? 100% 2,061� 10% 1.31% Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS - Evaluated Production 21,803� 100% 0.85% 4. Borrower FICO scores have a strong impact on expected lifetime losses: FICO Range $ in millions % of Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS Cumulative Lifetime Loss Rate ? 700 11,392� 52% 0.39% ?660 < 700 5,981� 28% 0.69% ?620 < 660 3,529� 16% 1.31% < 620 901� 4% 5.94% Total Standard and Poor's LEVELS - Evaluated Production 21,803� 100% 0.85% Impact of Recent Guideline Cuts Indymac has recently been cutting back its product and underwriting guidelines for two reasons: 1) to better align risks and returns in the current environment and 2) due to temporary poor liquidity in the secondary market on certain products. The attached schedules show what the impact of these cutbacks would have been on our overall production for the first quarter. Had the cutbacks been fully in place for the quarter, our overall production would have been reduced by $8.6 billion, or a 33 percent reduction. Going forward, we do not expect actual production to decline by this magnitude, as some of the displaced production will migrate to other Indymac loan products for which the borrowers qualify, such as FHA/VA loans and our new 100 percent financing program (with mortgage insurance) for first time homebuyers that is saleable to the GSEs. In addition, we continue to capture market share for other loan types, as many other lenders are struggling or exiting the business. Finally, we are constantly evaluating the impact of our guideline cuts, and, to the extent that we determine we have gone too far, or liquidity improves in the secondary market, we may revise guidelines in some areas in the future. The impact on credit quality of the guideline cuts would have been as follows: 1. The average FICO score for all production would have increased from 704 to 711, and the average CLTV would have decreased from 74 percent to 69 percent. 2. $3.5 billion of production with CLTVs greater than 80 percent would have been eliminated, or 74 percent of that production. The percentage of total production with CLTVs less than or equal to 80 percent would have increased from 81 percent to 92 percent. 3. $2.0 billion of production with FICOs below 660 would have been eliminated, or 44 percent of that production. The percentage of total production with FICOs greater than 660 would have increased from 81 percent to 84 percent. 4. The percentage of all production with both CLTVs less than 90 percent and FICOs above 660 would have increased from 68 percent to 80 percent. 5. $7.0 billion of documentation types 2, 3 and 4 production would have been eliminated, or 38 percent of that production. 6. The percentage of total production with a LEVELS loss rate of less than 0.48 percent, and therefore considered comparable from a risk perspective to loans sold to the GSEs, would have increased from 53 percent to 68 percent of total production. 7. The estimated lifetime loss rate as per the LEVELS model would have decreased from 0.85 percent to 0.52 percent, in essence reducing Indymac's overall credit risk by 39 percent. As expected and previously forecasted, net credit losses related to loans held for sale increased to $24.1 million during the first quarter from $17.7 million in Q4-06, or to 9.8 bps of loan sales from 7.6 bps. However, 80 percent of these losses, or $19.3 million, would have been prevented with the guideline cuts. As previously disclosed, we expect credit losses to remain high in the second quarter but anticipate that credit loss performance will improve during the second half of 2007 as the guideline cuts take full effect. Re-Affirmed Q1-07 Earnings Guidance Indymac provided this supplemental information in advance of our scheduled conference call next week in response to current market conditions and continued interest from stakeholders. We have previously guided that for the first quarter of 2007 Indymac would earn around a 10 percent return on shareholders� equity (ROE), and we expect that our Q1-07 earnings will be in line with this guidance when we report next Thursday, April 26th. Michael W. Perry, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will host the Company�s first quarter earnings conference call and webcast beginning at 10:00 a.m. PDT, followed by a question and answer period. The earnings data is scheduled to be released before the market opens on that morning. The presentations accompanying the Shareholder Meeting webcast, and the first quarter earnings conference call and webcast, can be accessed, along with Indymac�s 10-Q, via Indymac Bank�s home page at www.indymacbank.com. If you would like to participate in the call: Internet webcast access will be available at: http://www.indymacbank.com The telephone dial-in number is (888) 396-7846 or (706) 758-0230 (international), access code #3829781; and The replay number is (800) 642-1687 or (706) 645-9291 (international), access code #3829781 To participate on the call, please dial in 15 minutes prior to the scheduled start time. The conference call will be replayed continuously beginning two hours after the live event on April 26th, through midnight on May 2nd and will be available on Indymac�s Website at www.indymacbank.com. Appendix Contents: Appendix A Actual Mortgage Loan Production Stratification Table 1 Loan documentation type vs. loan to value Table 2 Loan documentation type vs. FICO Table 3 FICO vs. loan to value Table 4 Occupancy vs. loan to value Table 5 Occupancy vs. FICO Table 6 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. loan to value Table 7 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. FICO Appendix B Proforma Loan Production Had the Guideline Cuts Occurred Jan. 1, 2007 Table 1 Loan documentation type vs. loan to value Table 2 Loan documentation type vs. FICO Table 3 FICO vs. loan to value Table 4 Occupancy vs. loan to value Table 5 Occupancy vs. FICO Table 6 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. loan to value Table 7 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. FICO Appendix C Actual Standard Consumer Loan Production by S&P Loss Level Stratification Table 1 Loan documentation type Table 2 FICO Table 3 Occupancy Table 4 GSE eligibility Table 5 Loan to value Table 6 Reconciliation from total production to total S&P production Appendix D Proforma Loan Production by S&P Loss Level Stratification Had Guideline Cuts Occurred Jan. 1, 2007 Table 1 Loan documentation type Table 2 FICO Table 3 Occupancy Table 4 GSE eligibility Table 5 Loan to value About Indymac Bank IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NDE) (Indymac�) is the holding company for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. (Indymac Bank�), the 7th largest savings and loan and the 2nd largest independent mortgage lender in the nation. Indymac Bank, operating as a hybrid thrift/mortgage banker, provides cost-efficient financing for the acquisition, development, and improvement of single-family homes. Indymac also provides financing secured by single-family homes and other banking products to facilitate consumers� personal financial goals. With an increased focus on building customer relationships and a valuable consumer franchise, Indymac is committed to becoming a top five mortgage lender in the U.S. by 2011, with a long-term goal of providing returns on equity of 15 percent or greater. The company is dedicated to continually raising expectations and conducting itself with the highest level of ethics. For more information about Indymac and its affiliates, or to subscribe to the company's Email Alert feature for notification of company news and events, please visit http://about.indymacbank.com/investors. Certain statements contained in this press release may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. The words "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "project," "plan," "forecast," "intend," "goal," "target," and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which cannot be predicted or quantified. Actual results and the timing of certain events could differ materially from those projected in or contemplated by the forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including, the effect of economic and market conditions including industry volumes and margins; the level and volatility of interest rates; the Company�s hedging strategies, hedge effectiveness and asset and liability management; the accuracy of subjective estimates used in determining the fair value of financial assets of Indymac; the credit risks with respect to our loans and other financial assets; the actions undertaken by both current and potential new competitors; the availability of funds from Indymac's lenders and from loan sales and securitizations, to fund mortgage loan originations and portfolio investments; the execution of Indymac's growth plans and ability to gain market share in a significant market transition; the impact of disruptions triggered by natural disasters; pending or future legislation, regulations or litigation; and other risk factors described in the reports that Indymac files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and its reports on Form 8-K. 1 While Indymac�s production is evaluated using the LEVELS model, this data is not audited or endorsed by Standard and Poor�s. 2 Production evaluated by the LEVELS� model excludes second liens, HELOCs, reverse mortgages or construction loans. 3 The high loss rates for the >80% 95% ? 100% bucket.