Fewer than half of Europe's regularly scheduled commercial
flights were expected to take place Friday and many of the region's
busiest routes will remain closed at least into Saturday as the
fallout from a volcanic eruption in Iceland stranded thousands of
travelers and started to impact global trade.
Airlines across the world were affected, with Eurocontrol, a
38-country agency in Brussels that coordinates European flights,
estimating only 11,000 flights will take place Friday in European
airspace compared with 28,000 flights on an average day. Fridays
are busy days for travel as business passengers return home, while
leisure passengers depart for holidays.
Only 20,334 flights occurred Thursday, Eurocontrol said. About
100 Trans-Atlantic flights arrived in Europe of the 300 typically
expected.
The Air Transport Association, or IATA, which represents some
230 airlines and 93% of scheduled international global air traffic
said that at current levels of disruptions, its initial and
conservative estimate of the financial impact on airlines is in
excess of $200 million per day in lost revenues. However, it said
airlines would be hurt further as it they will incur added costs
for re-routing of aircraft, care for stranded passengers and
aircraft at various ports.
A volcano under Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted
Wednesday for the second time in a month, spewing clouds up to
35,000 feet into the air. Aircraft travel at altitudes up to 35,000
feet.
Air-traffic problems Friday shifted as the ash clouds were blown
across Europe. While limited airspace was reopened in Scotland,
Ireland and Sweden, air-traffic controllers began to close down
airspace in southern Germany, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and
Switzerland. Eurocontrol said latest weather forecasts predicted
the cloud would move slightly south and east in coming days.
The latest update from the U.K.'s National Air Traffic Control
Service said it would restrict flying until 0600 GMT Saturday "at
the earliest" over England and Wales, extending an existing ban
that had spread across Europe as the volcano's ash cloud drifted
south. However, a ban on commercial flights will be lifted at 1800
GMT for a large part of Scottish airspace, which could allow the
first flights between the U.S. and U.K. since Thursday morning.
Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL), which had canceled its Friday
morning flights to Europe from the U.S, is expected to restart some
overnight flights to Scotland that arrive Saturday.
Many of Europe's busiest passenger and cargo aircraft faced a
second day of closure, though the weekend will give operators an
opportunity to reposition aircraft and staff if the flying ban is
lifted. NATS plans another update at 1930 GMT, with its findings
determining flight plans by airlines across the world.
German aviation security agency DFS Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH
said Friday it expects large parts of the country's airspace to
remain closed at least until Saturday 0600 GMT due to the spread of
volcanic ash in the atmosphere. DFS spokesman Axel Raab said German
airspace could even remain closed after Saturday morning. Germany's
main hub airport in Frankfurt was closed.
Ashley Steel, who heads transport and infrastructure at KPMG,
said the longer the disruptions continue, the harder it will be to
clear the backlog of passengers on any spare capacity that may have
existed on flights.
"Airlines will incur their biggest losses in the Trans-Atlantic
business passenger category; the impact on economy class revenues
is likely to be diluted because people will change their bookings
and eventually still fly. However, the bottom line is, for an
airline like British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) every day of their fleet
being grounded is likely to cost tens of millions of pounds," Steel
said.
She said some businesses such as car hire firms, ferries, trains
and hotels would benefit. Eurostar said seats were still available
on Saturday and Sunday but tickets for Friday sold out Thursday
evening.
Airlines were starting to count the cost of the disruption
Friday. Finnish airline Finnair said it had been forced to cancel
435 flights, affecting about 54,000 passengers, which was costing
it about EUR2 million a day in lost revenue. Helsinki airport was
set to be closed until at least Sunday at 1200 GMT. Belgian carrier
Brussels Airlines expects the air travel disruption to cost it
several hundreds of thousands euro. The cost to larger airlines
like BA, Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYA.DB) or Deutsche Lufthansa AG
(LHA.XE) is expected to be several millions of euros.
Volcanic ash is a significant safety threat to aircraft, and the
cloud has spread across one of the busiest travel and trade routes
in the world, forcing the closure of many of the region's key
gateways, from Norway south to Paris. Particles reduce visibility,
damage aircraft windshields and can cause engines to shut down.
As well as hitting air passenger and cargo traffic, the
disruption was threatening political events.
On Saturday and Sunday, more than 70 delegations of world
leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, are due to visit
Krakow, in southern Poland, to pay their last respects to late
Polish President Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash. Krakow
airport was closed Friday.
White House officials said late Thursday Obama still is planning
to fly to Poland for the funeral despite the ash cloud, but U.S.
Air Force officials are monitoring the situation in Iceland.
Elsewhere, air space above the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium
remained closed and airports in northern Paris also remained shut,
including the Paris airports. Moving south and east, Austria,
Switzerland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Slovakia were also
closing down their airspace.
Scores of flights from Asia and the Americas were canceled or
delayed for a second day.
"In general, the situation is dynamic and subject to change,"
said NATS on its Web site. "We continue to work closely with
airports, airlines, and the rest of Europe to understand and
mitigate the implications of the volcanic eruption."
The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation estimated that some 6
million passengers could be affected world-wide if the closures
continue for up to three days.
The flight disruptions may also have grounded about half of the
daily cargo volume between Asia and Europe, according to an
Asia-based aviation analyst. About 7,000 tons of goods are flown
daily on average from Asia to Europe and another 4,000 tons from
Europe to Asia, the analyst estimated, involving mostly
electronics, luxury items and perishable goods such as fruits,
vegetables and meat.
Meanwhile, oil traders were mulling the potential impact on jet
fuel prices and trade in Asia but the impact on fuel use would
depend on how many days airspace around Europe remains restricted
or closed, they said.
Experts say the Icelandic eruptions could continue on-and-off
for months, potentially meaning continued delays and closures. An
expedition team that returned from the volcano Thursday found that
the eruption was still going strong, with a lot of ash being
propelled into the sky.
-By Kaveri Niththyananthan, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420 7842 9299;
kaveri.niththyananthan@dowjones.com and Doug Cameron, Dow Jones
Newswires; (312) 750 4135; doug.cameron@dowjones.com
(Paul Sonne, Daniel Michaels, Mike Esterl, Costas Paris, Yoshio
Takahashi, Wayne Ma and Marcin Sobczyk contributed to this
article.)
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