Merck KGaA's Erbitux Data May Be Upstaged By Rival Vectibix
17 September 2009 - 11:31PM
Dow Jones News
German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA's (MRK.XE) Merck Serono
division will learn key survival rate data for its drug Erbitux
among metastatic colon cancer patients from an independent study at
an oncology conference starting this weekend in Berlin.
But analysts say Merck's data may be upstaged at the same
conference by Amgen Inc.(AMGN), which is expected to reveal the
efficacy of its rival drug Vectibix as a primary and secondary
treatment with chemotherapy for the same type of colon cancer
patients.
Erbitux, a monoclonal antibody whose active ingredient is called
cetuximab, is already approved as a primary treatment in
combination with chemotherapy for colon cancer.
Amgen's Vectibix, which contains the active ingredient
panitumumab, has been approved to treat colon cancer after
chemotherapy fails. If Amgen's data is good, analysts say Merck
stands to lose substantial market share.
"The market expectations are high for Vectibix and its study
data," wrote UniCredit analyst Markus Mayer in a note. "Good
results would be a negative trigger for the Merck share price."
The results are to be presented at the European Society for
Medical Oncology congress running between Sept. 20 and Sept. 24 in
Berlin.
Both drugs are approved in the U.S. and Europe and are seen as
blockbusters, with the potential to earn the companies peak annual
sales of at least EUR1 billion. Erbitux is also approved to treat
head and neck cancer and is sold in the U.S. by Eli Lilly & Co.
(LLY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.(BMY).
Both are vying for the same group of colon cancer patients who
carry a normal form of a gene called KRAS. Studies show patients
who have a mutated form of the gene - about a third of all colon
cancer patients - do not respond to Vectibix and Erbitux. In July,
the U.S. Food and Drug Administration revised the labels on the
drugs to recommend that they not be used to treat patients with the
genetic mutation.
In August, Amgen said the PRIME study met its goals, meaning
patients taking Vectibix showed significant improvement compared
with those on standard chemotherapy alone. Full results will be
presented at the congress.
JPMorgan said in a note that Vectibix could snare as much as
half of Erbitux's market share in colon cancer treatment. However,
the brokerage added that positive Erbitux survival data could blunt
some of the blow.
Either way, JPMorgan said the data "should have a significant
impact on Erbitux's market share going forward."
Exane BNP Paribas analysts said in a note that they expect
comparable efficacy data from the studies and estimate the drugs
will each capture 30% market share in 2013.
A Merck spokeswoman declined to comment about the Erbitux data,
noting it comes from an independent study.
Survival data from the Erbitux study are expected to be
presented on Sept. 23. Amgen is scheduled to present data for
Vectibix as a secondary treatment on Sept. 22 and as a primary
treatment on Sept. 24.
Company Web sites: www.merck.de/; www.amgen.com/
-By Allison Connolly, Frankfurt Bureau; +49 69 29725513,
allison.connolly@dowjones.com