Fraser Institute News Release: No evidence of increasing droughts, floods, hurricanes and wildfires, despite activist claims
18 April 2024 - 7:00PM
Contrary to claims by many climate activists and politicians,
extreme weather events—including forest fires, droughts, floods and
hurricanes—are not increasing in frequency or intensity, finds a
new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent,
non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Earth Day has become a time when extraordinary claims are made
about extreme weather events, but before policymakers act on those
extreme claims—often with harmful regulations—it’s important to
study the actual evidence,” said Kenneth Green, a senior fellow
with the Fraser Institute and author of Extreme Weather and
Climate Change.
The study finds that global temperatures have increased
moderately since 1950 but there is no evidence that extreme weather
events are on the rise, including:
- Drought: Data from
the World Meteorological Organization Standardized Precipitation
Index showed no statistically significant trends in drought
duration or magnitude—with the exception of some small regions in
Africa and South America—from 1900 to 2020.
- Flooding: Research
in the Journal of Hydrology in 2017, analyzing 9,213 recording
stations around the world, found there were more stations
exhibiting significant decreasing trends (in flood risk) than
increasing trends.
- Hurricanes:
Research conducted for the World Meteorological Organization in
2019 (updated in 2023) found no long-term trends in hurricanes or
major hurricanes recorded globally going back to 1980.
- Forest Fires: The
Royal Society in London, in 2020, found that when considering the
total area burned at the global level, there is no overall
increase, but rather a decline over the last decades. In Canada,
data from Canada’s Wildland Fire Information System show that the
number of fires and the area burned in Canada have both been
declining over the past 30 years.
“The evidence is clear—many of the claims that extreme weather
events are increasing are simply not empirically true,” Green
said.
“Before governments impose new regulations or enact new
programs, they need to study the actual data and base their actions
on facts, not unsubstantiated claims.”
MEDIA CONTACT:Kenneth Green, Senior
FellowFraser Institute
To arrange media interviews or for more information, please
contact:Drue MacPherson, Fraser Institute, (604) 688-0221 Ext.
721drue.macpherson@fraserinstitute.org
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The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy
research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver,
Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax and ties to a global
network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve
the quality of life for Canadians, their families and future
generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the
effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on
their well-being. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does
not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit
www.fraserinstitute.org