Pro-Life
12 years ago
Strong possibility of a market bottom... link to comps:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USU,URRE,URG,URZ,EFR.TO,DNN,UEC,URPTF,MGAFF,SXRZF,CXZ,RRI.V|C|H14,3
Pro-Life
12 years ago
Oil Prices Rose 19% In 2011 - Another Sign That A Nuclear Renaissance Is Inevitable
January 3, 2012
http://seekingalpha.com/article/317065-oil-prices-rose-19-in-2011-another-sign-that-a-nuclear-renaissance-is-inevitable
Oil prices rose 19% over the course of 2011, the third consecutive year marked by a rise in the price of oil. Below is the monthly chart of Brent Crude Oil that illustrates the clear uptrend.
While currency devaluation, geopolitical tensions, and speculators are all forces that may be contributing to rising oil prices and greater market volatility, a growing factor that suggests the price rise will continue is the supply/demand imbalance in the oil market. In other words: demand for oil and other fossil fuels is only growing, but the supply of them is diminishing. The chart below illustrates.
While I believe the world will likely be using fossil fuels as a primary source of energy for some time, we are clearly at a point where a new source of energy is needed. I believe nuclear energy is the primary candidate destined to grow, for the following reasons:
1. It can provide "baseload" - meaning always on - energy
2. It is emission-free
3. It has high power density, which means it does not require an inordinate amount of land and thus is conducive to powering cities
4. It is inexpensive
No other source can really make these same claims. Wind and solar are much more expensive and cannot effectively provide baseload energy, which is precisely why they remain insignificant sources of power on a global basis. Technological breakthroughs may change this, though I don't see this on the horizon, and believe renewables will have limited roles in the global energy market until this changes.
And so, the rise of nuclear energy is virtually inevitable -- the world will demand it for survival. Accordingly, China already has 25 nuclear power plants under construction, and realizes that nuclear will be a key part of how its nation is powered as it increasingly urbanizes. Investors can recognize China as the "smart money" -- the force driving the market's demand and sending prices higher -- in the nuclear energy market.
Of course, this transition will not occur overnight - nuclear power plants take a long time to build - and so oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to play an important role in providing energy to the world. Investors will need to be patient, as this market may take up to a decade to really get going. The value network is still developing and much depends on how government participates and regulates the market, as well as what innovations entrepreneurs will develop as the market grows.
For now, the investment opportunity is simple: uranium. Nuclear power is most easily obtained through processing of uranium, and so uranium mining firms are the buy and hold opportunity for patient investors looking to participate in the nuclear renaissance. Uranium ETFs like URA as well as mining companies like Uranerz (URZ), Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC), and Cameco (CCJ) are plays that make sense from this perspective, with UEC being my favorite due to the adept leadership of its Amir Adnani - its founder and CEO with a background as a serial entrepreneur with a marketing focus - as well as the firm's focus on ISR mining which I regard as an enabling technology that will allow UEC to experience lower mining costs than traditional open pit mines.
As compelling as the uranium story is, I cannot overemphasize the need for patience. Nuclear energy is still not appreciated and the entire energy market is poorly understood. This represents a great opportunity for the educated investor, provided they have patience and conviction, and understand the economics of nuclear is really the only option barring some type of technological breakthrough that currently is nowhere in sight. As always, investors will find it to their advantage to focus on the actions of the smart money - which in this case is China - while ignoring short-term sentiment factors like the concerns about nuclear energy stemming from the Fukushima crisis.
While uranium remains the mineral to invest in and focus on, investors should also keep an eye out to see how Thorium develops. Thorium is a potential substitute for uranium in the production of nuclear power, and possesses less of a radiation risk - a common criticism of uranium. However, the value network for thorium is a bit undeveloped at the moment, and it does not appear that there is yet a "smart money" faction that can push prices higher. Thorium is also more a more expensive way of generating nuclear power, an obstacle I suspect will need to be overcome if thorium is to become a serious opportunity for investors looking to invest in the nuclear renaissance.
So get ready for a whole new energy paradigm as we move away from oil. Understand, though, the process will take time, and that the science and economics suggest the opportunity is nuclear energy unless there is some type of a big technological breakthrough. And of course, patience is your friend; while the economics will, as always, ultimately dictate what happens, the process can be slow. China is the one to watch, and so long as they are committed to the market, any sell-offs in opportunities to invest in nuclear energy, namely via uranium mining firms, constitute an opportunity to buy the dip.
Disclosure: I am long UEC, CCJ.
Pro-Life
12 years ago
Nuclear news: Canada reaches uranium trade deal with China
Thu Feb 9, 2012 10:16am EST
* Pact allows more Canadian uranium into China
* China fastest growing nuclear market in world
* Uranium to be used for civilian nuclear program
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/canada-china-uranium-idUSL2E8D94O520120209
BEIJING, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Canada has reached a deal with China that will make it easier for Cameco Corp and other Canadian uranium producers to sell nuclear fuel into the fastest-growing market for atomic power.
The trade deal, announced on Thursday during Prime Minister Stephen Harper's visit to China, allows Cameco - the largest publicly listed producer - to sell uranium from its Canadian projects into China. Details of the agreement were not provided.
"This agreement will help Canadian uranium companies to substantially increase exports to China, the world's fastest growing market for these products," Harper's office said in a statement.
China currently operates some 13 nuclear reactors, with a total nuclear power output of about 11 gigawatts. The Asian country, which has 27 reactors under construction, plans to boost output to 80 gigawatts by 2020.
By contrast, the United States has 104 nuclear reactors.
Construction of reactors in China is expected to outweigh the decommissioning of plants in Japan, where reactors were taken offline in the wake of the Fukushima disaster last March, and in Germany, where the Japanese disaster led to a policy shift away from nuclear power.
In 2010, Cameco signed two deals with China to provide the country more than 50 million pounds of uranium over 15 years. Cameco has major uranium projects in Canada, the United States, Kazakhstan and Australia.
"We couldn't deliver Canadian uranium here until this agreement was signed so it opened the door for us to do that," said Chief Executive Tim Gitzel, who is part of a trade delegation visiting China this week with the Canadian prime minister.
Canada and China are working to finalize the text of the agreement and expect it to be completed within the next few months, according to the release.
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Cameco, which will report its fourth-quarter earnings after market close on Thursday, plans to boost its uranium production to 40 million pounds a year by 2018.
Pro-Life
12 years ago
Sector comparables:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USU,URRE,URG,URZ,PKN,DNN,UEC,URPTF,MGAFF,SXRZF,CXZ,RRI.V|B|H14,3
Pro-Life
13 years ago
The whole sector is moving up for the most part:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USU,URRE,URG,URZ,PUC.V,ATURF,DNN,UEC,URPTF,MGAFF,PKN,HBE.V|B|H14,3
Pro-Life
13 years ago
Indeed... Here goes the U308 sector!!! Charted comparables:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USU,URRE,URG,URZ,PUC.V,ATURF,DNN,UEC,URPTF,MGAFF|B|H14,3
Pro-Life
13 years ago
US Nuclear Regulators To Vote On Proposal To Review Japan Crisis, Assess US Safety
Date : 03/21/2011 @ 12:21PM
Source : Dow Jones News
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=46958493
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to vote today on a proposal that directs nuclear officials to conduct a 90-day review of events at Japan's Fukushima power plant and to identify potential new rules for the U.S. nuclear industry.
This 90-day review marks one of the first formal steps taken by the commission to digest incoming information on the Japanese nuclear crisis and to determine whether the U.S. needs to adopt new standards at its own facilities as a result.
In the meantime, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is also conducting "temporary" inspections of the 104 nuclear reactors in the U.S. to assess their ability to respond to severe accidents -- namely, to determine whether they can deal with total losses of power, mitigate problems associated with flooding and deal with equipment losses due to seismic events.
The commission will also outline goals for a longer-term review of the Japanese crisis and the safety of the U.S. industry.
The 90-day review, meanwhile, will include an evaluation of the ability of reactors to respond to station blackouts and severe accidents. It will also involve a radiological consequent analysis, said Bill Borchardt, NRC's executive director for operations.
The review "will evaluate all of the currently available information from the Japanese event and look at it to evaluate our 104 operating reactors' ability to protect against natural disasters," Borchardt said during a briefing Monday.
The NRC's commissioners are expected to vote on the 90-day review proposal today. The proposal should be made public shortly thereafter, an NRC spokesman said.
Within the 30 days of the review, NRC staff will deliver a "quick look" report to the commissioners that outlines the condition of the U.S. fleet of nuclear reactors. "The idea is just to get a quick snapshot," Borchardt said.
Given the time constraints of the 30-day review, Borchardt said the commission will not collaborate with the nuclear industry on its initial quick-look report.
Following both the temporary inspections and the 90-day review, the commission will determine whether it needs to adopt new rules or standards.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is also evaluating updated seismic information, from the U.S. Geological Survey, for the central and eastern United States.
As more information about the Japanese nuclear disaster becomes available, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will conduct a long-term analysis to identify possible areas of future research and potential changes to the reactor oversight program. This review could also lead to new rules.
Borchardt said he did not know when the commission will launch this long-term review but that it will welcome "substantial stakeholder involvement" when it does.
-By Tennille Tracy, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6619; tennille.tracy@dowjones.com
chd911sc
16 years ago
hey frenchee and staranalyst.
the risk involved is the bet that nuclear power will be the power source of choice in the future (instead of oil, nat. gas, solar, etc.). my bet is that it will be the power source of choice and the entire world will come around to that thinking at some point as well, in my humble opinion. countries like china already are as they have a plan to build and have 20 or so nuclear power plants online by 2020 (i think). people that are not educated in nuclear power hear those words and think chernobyl, three mile island, weapons of mass destruction and scoff. the fact is it's the cleanest alternative out there that will provide adequate amounts of power.
regards,
craig.
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frenchee
15 years ago
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