As markets continue to oscillate in a narrow range, many
investors are starting to wonder which way stocks will trend next.
Some are looking for equities to test new highs as uncertainties
from the presidential election, geopolitical worries, and a
resolution to the European crisis all wither away and allow
investors to buy up stocks in droves.
Meanwhile, other investors are looking for a sharp drop in
stocks thanks to any number of events in the marketplace. These
still unlikely to happen events could come in the form of some sort
of bout with Iran, an unexpected exit in the euro zone, or even a
further slowdown in emerging markets that truly calls into question
the global growth story (read Six Easy Ways to Target Low
Volatility Stocks with ETFs).
However, while any of these events could send the market sharply
lower in short-order, the chances of any of them happening are very
slim. Still, all of these risks are out there in the market and
investors need to be at least somewhat prepared for these issues,
or any other ‘black swans’ striking the market.
In light of this, and what seems to be the relative frequency
with which these black swan events hit the market (at least three
in the past 15 years), it could be time to position portfolios
accordingly. For these investors, First Trust’s new fund could be
worth delving into more closely, especially for those who feel that
they don’t have enough protection against ‘tail risk’ events (read
Is it Time for an Equal Weight ETF?).
VIXH in focus
First Trust’s new ETF, the S&P 500 VIX Tail Hedge
Fund (VIXH), looks to mitigate tail risk worries—or events
that happen outside of three standard deviations from the norm—by
investing in both the S&P 500 and VIX call futures. This is
done by targeting the CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index which is a
benchmark that offers exposure to both of these asset classes.
In essence, this benchmark will invest in the broad S&P 500
securities and a variable amount of one-month call options on the
VIX index, based on forward volatility levels. On the monthly
rebalancing date, VIXH’s managers take a look at the VIX and if the
benchmark is less than 15 or greater than 50, no calls are
purchased (see Three Low Volatility ETFs for Stormy Markets).
However, if the VIX futures are above 15 and lower than 30, 1%
of the portfolio will be devoted to VIX calls, while if the futures
are above 30 and less than 50, 0.50% of the portfolio is put into
VIX calls. These calls are purchased by the index at 10am CT on the
rebalancing date while the old contracts are cash settled as well.
For this exposure, VIXH charges investors 60 basis points a year in
fees, making the fund relatively inexpensive considering the type
of exposure offered.
“The lesson of the 2008 global financial crisis is that a single
severe market shock can devastate entire portfolios and wipe out
many years of market gains,” said Robert Carey, CFA, Chief Market
Strategist of First Trust in a press release. “Given the surge in
interest in tail risk and tail risk hedging in the wake of that
crisis, we believe this is an ideal time to launch a Fund offering
long-term investors a convenient way to attempt to hedge against
the risk of similar extreme market events.”
Strategy Explained
First Trust seems to believe that deep market declines, based on
their research, have rarely occurred at very low or very high
levels of expected volatility, which is why they refrain from
buying VIX calls at both of those extremes. Furthermore, since the
VIX has an extremely low negative correlation with broad equity
markets, it is the perfect hedge for ‘black swan’ events that hit
the broad markets during moderately volatile time periods (read
Three Defensive ETFs for a Bear Market).
This is especially true given the call option approach that VIXH
uses in order to achieve its VIX exposure. Calls allow for maximum
exposure with a minimum dollar investment, making them great ways
to obtain VIX exposure while still keeping the vast majority of the
portfolio in equities.
ETF Competition
VIXH is a relatively unique fund from First Trust, although it
will likely face at least some competition from at least a few
other funds out there. Arguably, the biggest competitor looks to be
from iPath in their S&P VEQTOR ETN (VQT).
This product uses a similar technique to protect against tail
risk issues, cycling between cash, the S&P 500 and the VIX.
However, this note focuses in on realized volatility levels and
pushes more into the short-term VIX as the level of realized
volatility increases, up to 40% in the VIX under certain, extreme
circumstances.
It should also be noted that VQT is structured as an ETN, so it
has some of the credit risk from Barclays, but it will not have any
tracking error, unlike its ETF counterparts. However, investors
have to pay for this exposure, as the fees come in at 95 basis
points a year, more than double VIXH (see more in the Zacks ETF
Center).
Still, VQT is quite popular with investors as the product has
over $350 million in assets and sees trading volumes approaching
50,000 shares a day. With these figures, it is pretty clear that
First Trust sought to launch a new competitor in the space in order
to hopefully steal away some of this impressive total from
iPath.
While it will be a hard road for First Trust’s new fund,
especially initially launching before a three day weekend, the fund
could see some inflows from investors looking to hedge against tail
risks while still staying in the ETF (as opposed to the ETN) world.
Furthermore, the costs for VIXH are far lower than its iPath
counterpart, and the VIX call allocation is very intriguing,
suggesting that for those investors worried about black swans, the
new fund could be worth a closer look.
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(VIXH): ETF Research Reports
BARCLY-SP VEQTR (VQT): ETF Research Reports
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