LOS ANGELES, Oct. 8, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- In its third quarter
report for 2019, the Cathay Bank/UCLA Anderson Forecast U.S.-China
Economic Report casts significant doubt on the possibility that the
ongoing trade war between the United
States and China will end
any time soon. To the contrary, the report, co-authored by
economist William Yu and UCLA
Anderson Forecast director Jerry
Nickelsburg, asserts that significant differences motivate
the negotiating position of the two sides.
The U.S. continues to refuse a 50-50 compromise, a refusal
rooted in the belief that China
has benefited unequally from decades of trade between the two
nations. China, though, has
repeatedly indicated that it will not accept an "unequal treaty."
If the upcoming October negotiations fail ― and this report expects
them to fail ― additional U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese goods
will be triggered. The result is that nearly all goods imported
into the U.S. from China will have
tariffs of either 15% or 30%.
With the trade war a given, the report speculates on the
economic implications of a potentially less-than-sunny global
economy.
"Economic analysis of past trade disputes and tariff barriers
suggests that the U.S. will be purchasing more, higher-priced goods
from other countries and that U.S. supply chains will diversify, if
not completely change. China will
continue, indeed intensify, its pivot toward South and Southeast Asia for trade in goods and toward
European companies for foreign investment. The longer the trade war
goes on, the more costly it will be to recover the previous, more
efficient trading patterns," the report states.
The report acknowledges that both sides appear entrenched in
intractable positions. With the U.S. "going it alone," the absence
of a third nation with the diplomatic clout to aid in negotiations,
and China's framing the trade war
as an example of U.S. imperialism (not to mention an opportunity
for China to assume the role of
global economic leader), Yu and Nickelsburg assert that there is no
obvious path to a solution. Given such conditions, the authors
expect higher prices and an evolution in existing trade
patterns.
Read the full Cathay Bank/UCLA Anderson Forecast U.S.-China
Economic Report
About UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson Forecast is
one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks
for California and the nation, and
was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s
downturn in California and the
strength of the state's rebound since 1993. More recently, the
Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting
group to declare the recession of 2001. Visit UCLA Anderson
Forecast at uclaforecast.com.
About Cathay Bank
Cathay Bank, a subsidiary of Cathay
General Bancorp (Nasdaq: CATY), offers a wide range of financial
services through nine states in the U.S. as well as a branch in
Hong Kong and representative
offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Taipei. Founded in 1962 to support
Los Angeles' growing Chinese
American community, in the past half-century the bank has expanded
and grown with its customers, providing them with the tools and
services they need to achieve their goals. Learn more at
cathaybank.com. FDIC insurance coverage is limited to deposit
accounts at Cathay Bank's U.S. domestic branch locations.
About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson
School of Management is among the leading business schools in the
world, with faculty members globally renowned for their teaching
excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Located
in Los Angeles, gateway to the
growing economies of Latin America
and Asia and a city that
personifies innovation in a diverse range of endeavors, UCLA
Anderson's MBA, Fully Employed MBA, Executive MBA, UCLA-NUS
Executive MBA for Asia Pacific,
Master of Financial Engineering, Master of Science in Business
Analytics, doctoral and executive education programs embody the
school's Think in the Next ethos. Annually, some 1,800 students are
trained to be global leaders seeking the business models and
community solutions of tomorrow.
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Rebecca Trounson –
310.825.1348
rebecca.trounson@anderson.ucla.edu
UCLA Anderson School of Management
Paul Feinberg –
310.794.1215
paul.feinberg@anderson.ucla.edu
UCLA Anderson School of Management
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SOURCE UCLA Anderson Forecast