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Scenario Analysis and Examples at Maturity
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These examples are based on hypothetical terms. The actual terms will be determined on the Trade Date.
The below scenario analysis and examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and are hypothetical. They do not purport to be representative of every possible scenario concerning increases or decreases in the level of the Underlying relative to the Initial Level. We cannot predict the Final Level on the Final Valuation Date. You should not take the scenario analysis and these examples as an indication or assurance of the expected performance of the Underlying. The numbers appearing in the examples below have been rounded for ease of analysis. The following scenario analysis and examples illustrate the payment at maturity for a $10.00 security on a hypothetical offering of the Securities, with the following assumptions*:
Investment term: Approximately 7 years
Hypothetical Initial Level: 3,000
Hypothetical Downside Threshold: 2,250 (75% of the hypothetical Initial Level)
Hypothetical Step Return: 42.00%
Hypothetical Step Barrier: 3,000, which is 100% of the hypothetical Initial Level
* The actual Initial Level, Downside Threshold, Step Barrier and Step Return for the Securities will be determined on the Trade Date.
Example 1— The level of the Underlying increases from an Initial Level of 3,000 to a Final Level of 3,450. The Final Level is greater than or equal to the Step Barrier but the Underlying Return is less than the hypothetical Step Return of 42.00%:
Underlying Return = (3,450 – 3,000) / 3,000 = 15.00%
Payment at Maturity = $10 + [$10 × the greater of (i) 42.00% and (ii) 15.00%] = $14.20
Because the Final Level is greater than or equal to the Step Barrier but the Underlying Return is less than the hypothetical Step Return of 42.00%, the Payment at Maturity is equal to $14.20 per $10.00 Principal Amount of Securities, resulting in a total return on the Securities of 42.00%.
Example 2— The level of the Underlying increases from an Initial Level of 3,000 to a Final Level of 5,250. The Final Level is greater than or equal to the Step Barrier and the Underlying Return is greater than the hypothetical Step Return of 42.00%:
Underlying Return = (5,250 – 3,000) / 3,000 = 75.00%
Payment at Maturity = $10 + [$10 × the greater of (i) 42.00% and (ii) 75.00%] = $17.50
Because the Final Level is greater than or equal to the Step Barrier and the Underlying Return is greater than the hypothetical Step Return of 42.00%, the Payment at Maturity is equal to $17.50 per $10.00 Principal Amount of Securities, resulting in a total return on the Securities of 75.00%.
Example 3— The level of the Underlying decreases from an Initial Level of 3,000 to a Final Level of 2,550. The Underlying Return is negative and expressed as a formula:
Underlying Return = (2,550 – 3,000) / 3,000 = -15.00%
Payment at Maturity = $10.00
Because the Final Level is less than the Step Barrier but greater than or equal to the Downside Threshold on the Final Valuation Date, Morgan Stanley will pay you a Payment at Maturity equal to $10.00 per $10.00 Principal Amount of Securities, resulting in a zero percent return on the Securities.
Example 4— The level of the Underlying decreases from an Initial Level of 3,000 to a Final Level of 1,500. The Underlying Return is negative and expressed as a formula:
Underlying Return = (1,500– 3,000) / 3,000 = -50.00%
Payment at Maturity = $10 + ($10 × -50.00%) = $5.00
Because the Final Level is less than the Downside Threshold on the Final Valuation Date, the Securities will be fully exposed to any decline in the level of the Underlying as of the Final Valuation Date. Therefore, the Payment at Maturity is equal to $5.00 per $10.00 Principal Amount of Securities, resulting in a total loss on the Securities of 50.00%.
If the Final Level is below the Downside Threshold on the Final Valuation Date, the Securities will be fully exposed to any decline in the Underlying, and you will lose more than 25%, and possibly all, of your Principal Amount at maturity.