Strong US Banks To Benefit From New Treasury Plan
24 March 2009 - 7:06AM
Dow Jones News
Strong banks will benefit from the Treasury's new plan to buy to
$1 trillion in troubled loans and securities; for weak banks, the
plan may require them to face write-downs they can ill afford.
The Treasury Department's plan unveiled Monday puts leverage
back into a market sucked dry by uncertainty and fear. Some
analysts said the plan is another step to alleviating the financial
crisis, though certainly not the last.
For banks that have enough capital to absorb more write-downs,
and those that have already taken aggressive markets on the assets
often described as toxic, the plan is yet another step toward
solving the financial crisis, observers said. Those are likely the
nation's largest banks, many of which have expressed cautious
optimism about Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's blueprint.
But weak banks participating in the plan will suffer damage from
the losses they will book by selling bad loans and illiquid
securities, observers said. Regardless of the Treasury's plan,
banks like Colonial BancGroup Inc. (CNB) may well have to continue
to hope that private investors will recapitalize them. Colonial
declined to comment for this story.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC), PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
(PNC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) all might benefit from the
Treasury plan to provide guarantees and financial support to buy
soured loans made in the boom years ahead of the financial crisis,
said Christopher G. Marshall, the former chief financial officer of
Fifth Third.
He called the Treasury's Public-Private Investment Program
"exactly what's needed," and that it was a mistake of Geithner's
predecessor Henry Paulson to abandon the original purpose of the
Troubled Asset Relief Program which also sought the disposal of
assets.
"What's warranted is that the people who do step in to buy" the
bad assets "get attractive returns," roughly between 15% and 20%
annually, he said. The plan announced Monday paves that way,
because the government would provide the leverage that helps to
generate those returns.
Thomas B. Michaud, a vice chairman of KBW Inc., agreed. "The
market went from too much leverage to no leverage," and that led
"to a massive problem in price discovery" for assets banks would
like to sell, he said. Private investors had to rely on the loans
or securities alone to generate their returns, but with the benefit
of the government's leverage, investors are able to pay higher
prices.
The Treasury intends to establish an auction process for assets
banks want to sell.
"Those [banks] with enough capital" will benefit, Michaud said.
"Those who can afford to rid themselves of the bad assets at the
prices offered. If you are a very thinly capitalized institution
you may feel as if you cannot afford to sell assets at the required
prices."
However, in concert with the other government programs already
put in place, the banking system might be on its way to stability,
Michaud said. Though he said many will need to raise more capital
to make it through the crisis.
Shares of financial companies rallied after Washington unveiled
its blueprint. Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. (C) rose 17%, to
around $7.30 and $3.05, respectively. Colonial's shares rallied
43%, to 93 cents.
-By Matthias Rieker, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5936;
matthias.rieker@dowjones.com
(Joe Bel Bruno contributed to this article.)