The global search for yield drove money into bank bonds and
lifted safe-haven yields Friday.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly five basis
points Friday to finish the week at 2.026%, its highest yield in
two weeks.
Markit's CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a measure of
health in the corporate-bond market, was on track to improve 1.2%
to 106.5 basis points, which would be the lowest closing level
since August 5, when it was at 103. A lower level indicates
improving sentiment.
"We definitely saw risk appetite pick up globally," said John D.
Ryan, portfolio manager at DWS Investments.
Ryan said Treasurys were sold as the "risk on" trade took hold
of global investors who are seeing improvements in Europe's banking
system and a better tone to the prospects for resolution in
Greece.
"People definitely came into this year more bulled up," he said.
"People are getting more comfortable that liquidity won't be a
problem even if insolvency problems in Europe are unresolved."
High-grade municipal bonds--also viewed as safe-haven bets--took
another beating, with some yields on the triple-A muni scale
jumping 10 basis points for a second straight day, following a
series of record-low yields earlier in the month, according to a
benchmark scale kept by Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data.
Treasurys
Sapping demand for safe assets was optimism that a debt-swap
deal, which could help avoid a potentially disorderly default by
Greece, could be reached in the near term.
Adding to the punch, U.S. economic releases have largely removed
fears of a recession in the world's largest economy, denting the
need for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new bond-buying program
to juice the economic recovery.
The Fed's first monetary-policy meeting of 2012 will take place
next week.
"We don't doubt that at least some resolution to Greece and the
creditors is a good thing in the sense it might have what would be
a Euro crisis first--a resolution," said David Ader, head of
government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC.
Ader added that the Fed still leaves the door open for more
monetary stimulus but, "without a heightened sense of urgency, the
market may get a little impatient."
In late-afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year note was 15/32
lower to yield 2.026%. The 30-year bond was 1 7/32 lower to yield
3.102%. Bond yields move inversely to their prices.
Investment-Grade Corporates
Investors were snatching up bank bonds in the secondary market
this week, pushing yields to multi-month lows as risk-perception in
Europe subsides.
The appetite for certain bonds was staggering.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) 6.25% coupon bonds due 2016
improved 95 basis points Friday, and 132 basis points in the week,
which narrowed its spread to Treasurys to 530 basis points. The
bonds now yield 6.185%, according to MarketAxess.
Among the most-actively traded bonds, results were more mixed
and gains were less dramatic.
The bond changing hands the most on Friday was Goldman Sachs
Group Inc.'s (GS) 5.75% coupon, 10-year bonds issued Thursday.
Their spread to Treasurys improved 16 basis points to 364 Friday,
versus 380 at issuance.
The multi-day rally was initiated by a non-event--the absence of
a market selloff following the Standard & Poor's move last
Friday to downgrade nine euro-zone countries. The move stripped
France and Austria of triple-A ratings, and lowered Italy by two
notches to BBB-plus from single-A.
"The expectation was that European markets would react
negatively and they basically ignored it," said Mark Alexandridis,
managing director of asset management at First Principles Capital.
"All of these downgrades have been priced in. I don't think there
was a soul on the planet who thought Italy was a single-A country
last Thursday."
In the primary market, yields are so low that banks can offer a
decent-sized concession to entice investors, yet still be enthused
with the overall low borrowing cost.
"They are happy with the all-in yields, and we are happy with 20
to 30 basis point discounts to where things were trading," said
Ryan from DWS.
One syndicate desk estimated the average new-issue
concession--the extra yield offered to investors in the primary
market--at nine basis points this week, in line with the
eight-basis-point estimate from the week before, but well below the
26-basis-point estimate in the first week of the new year.
Yet just one borrower opted to take advantage of the favorable
conditions in the primary market Friday, and no senior unsecured
debt was on offer.
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS, BNS.T) sold $2.5 billion of five-year
covered bonds Friday, pricing the 1.95% coupon bonds to yield
1.977%, or 109.1 basis points over the Treasury rate.
That represents about 63 basis points in savings compared to
Scotia's senior unsecured offering earlier this month, when it sold
$1.25 billion of 2.55% coupon, five-year senior unsecured bonds
priced to yield 2.593%, or 172 basis points over Treasurys. The
Jan. 5 sale was part of a three-tranche, $2.75 billion offering
rated Aa1 by Moody's Investors Service and AA-minus by S&P.
Covered bonds offer investors two layers of protection from
default--the faith and credit of the issuer, like an unsecured
corporate bond, as well as a portfolio of actively managed
mortgages.
Municipal Bonds
Prices of top-rated municipal bonds fell for a second straight
day Friday, amid buyer resistance to low yields and as dealers
unload inventory from some debt sales this week.
While 10- and 30-year muni benchmark yields fell 21 basis points
and 42 basis points, respectively, from January 4 through
Wednesday, in the last two days they gave back a lot.
According to MMD, yields on triple-A rated bonds rose as much as
10 basis points, with intermediate maturities seeing yields rise
the most. Short-term prices were unchanged.
Munis have "outperformed other fixed-income classes
year-to-date, and yields are really low," said Kathy Bramlage,
director at Treasury Partners. "I don't want to buy here...supply
is going to pick up, the economy is getting better and rates are
going to go up from here."
Triple-A 10-year debt now yields 1.83%, compared to 1.67%
Wednesday, an all-time low on MMD's scale. Triple-A 30-year debt
yields 3.34%, versus 3.15% Wednesday, also an all-time low on MMD's
scale.
Looking ahead, supply is "manageable" but picking up, Janney
Montgomery Scott's Alan Schankel said in a research note. He
expects $4 billion in supply next week, which is less than last
year's weekly average of more than $5 billion. Meanwhile, 30-day
visible supply is at $8.3 billion, the highest level in five weeks,
he said.
According to Ipreo LLC's negotiated calendar, bigger deals next
week include a $400 million water-and-sewer deal from JEA, the
largest community-owned utility in Florida, and a $400 million
offering from New York City's Municipal Water Financing Authority.
The University of Chicago is also selling $524 million in taxable
and tax-exempt debt in two parts.
Mortgages
Credit Suisse on Friday lowered risk premiums on Redwood Trust
Inc.'s (RWT) $405 million residential mortgage bond from levels
discussed earlier this week, indicating strong demand for the rare
private-label security, according to investors familiar with the
deal.
The shorter-term, AAA-rated portion of the issue priced on
Friday at about 190 basis points over an interest-rate benchmark,
or 10 to 20 basis points less than levels floated to investors on
Wednesday. Another longer-dated part sold at a yield spread of 230
basis points, also about 10 to 20 basis points less than
anticipated.
Despite signs of investor demand, analysts don't expect growth
in issuance of private-label mortgage bonds. The sector, whose
failings helped to trigger the financial crisis, has been stunted
by competition from government agencies Fannie Mae (FNMA) and
Freddie Mac (FMCC), as well investors' lack of confidence in U.S.
housing and regulatory reforms.
Several firms, including Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO),
have intentions to issue bonds backed by prime mortgages too large
for government agencies. Still, banks are able to originate and
hold those jumbo loans at rates that undercut where private issuers
can profitably securitize, analysts said.
An analysis of the 446 loans in the new Redwood security also
suggests a narrow field of high-quality assets are required to get
a AAA credit rating. The mortgages have an average loan-to-value
ratio of 62.8%, meaning borrowers have substantial equity in their
properties. They also have particularly good credit, as their
average credit score is 770 on a scale from 300 to 850.
-By Patrick McGee, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2382;
patrick.mcgee@dowjones.com
--Kelly Nolan, Min Zeng, and Al Yoon contributed to this
article.