U.S. Jobs Market Set for Employment Boost in Early 2024, Trends Index Shows
09 January 2024 - 2:52AM
Dow Jones News
By Joshua Kirby
The U.S. jobs market stopped cooling in December, inching
slightly higher according to a trends index.
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index increased to
113.15 from a downwardly revised 112.48 in November, the
private-research group said Monday. It ends the previous two
months' decline in the market, though the index remains low
compared with the peaks reached in spring of 2022.
December's uptick suggests employment will continue to rise in
the first months of 2024, said Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the
conference board.
"The index has been on a gradual decline ... yet it remains
notably above prepandemic levels," Eren said. "This suggests
continued job additions in early 2024, albeit at a decelerated
pace."
A short, shallow recession later in the year would likely entail
job losses in the second half, though these would not be sustained
or severe, he said.
As in previous months, most jobs were added in services and
public-sector fields like healthcare, government and hospitality,
with other sectors seeing slight losses.
"It is unlikely that gains in these sectors alone can keep
payroll positive going forward," Eren cautioned. Other indicators
point to a softening labor market, he said.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for
employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index
increases, employment is likely to increase as well, while turning
points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is
likely to occur in the short term.
Four of the eight indicators increased in December, powering the
overall rise. These comprised the proportion of survey respondents
reporting that jobs were hard to find, initial claims for
unemployment insurance, real manufacturing and job openings.
Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com;
@joshualeokirby
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 08, 2024 10:37 ET (15:37 GMT)
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