Overall Confidence Ticked Up, But Consumers
Are Downgrading the Present
NEW
YORK, July 30, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Index® rose in July to 100.3 (1985=100), from a
downwardly revised 97.8 in June. The Present Situation
Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business
and labor market conditions—declined to 133.6 from 135.3 last
month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on
consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor
market conditions—improved in July to 78.2. That's up from 72.8 in
June but still below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a
recession ahead). The cutoff date for the preliminary results was
July 22, 2024.
![(PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board) (PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board)](https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/624268/The_Conference_Board_Logo.jpg)
"Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of
the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years," said
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist
at The Conference Board. "Even though consumers remain
relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be
concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty
about the future; things that may not improve until next year."
"Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less
pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income
improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about
business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were
a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions.
Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on
consumers' assessment of current job availability: while still
quite strong, consumers' assessment of the current labor market
situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021."
"In July, confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those
55 and older; only the 35-54 age group saw a decline. On a
six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest
among consumers under 35. On a month-over-month basis, no clear
pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving
average basis, consumers making over $100K were the most confident, but the gap with
other groups narrowed."
Peterson added: "The proportion of consumers predicting a
forthcoming recession ticked up in July but remains well
below the 2023 peak. Consumers' assessments of their Family's
Financial Situation—both currently and over the next six
months—was less positive. Indeed, assessments of familial finances
have deteriorated continuously since the beginning of 2024." (These
measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence
Index®.)
Average 12-month inflation expectations remained
stable at 5.4 percent in July, compared to a peak of 7.9 percent
reported in 2022. The share of consumers expecting higher
interest rates over the next 12 months dropped for the
second month in a row to 50.3 percent—the lowest since February 2024. Meanwhile, consumers were positive
about the stock market, with 49.1 percent expecting stock
prices to increase over the year ahead (the highest share since
March), 23.5 percent expecting a decrease, and 27.4 percent
expecting no change.
July's write-in responses showed that elevated prices,
especially for food and groceries, and inflation (the rate of
change in prices), remain the key drivers of consumers' views of
the economy, followed by US political situation and the labor
market. Mentions about the forthcoming elections increased,
although the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would
impact the economy was lower than write-ins from July 2016.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for
homes fell to a 12-year low. While buying plans for
cars were little changed, buying plans for most
big-ticket appliances increased slightly. Additionally, more
consumers reported plans to buy a smartphone or
laptop/PC in the next six months.
Based on a supplemental question, planned spending on
services appeared weaker in July
2024 than in July 2023.
Consumers said they plan to spend less over the next six months on
many discretionary items, including gambling, amusement parks, and personal travel. They also
plan to purchase less expensive services—for example, streaming
instead of going to the movies. The planned reduction in services
spending was across the board, but consumers continued to
prioritize non-discretionary expenditures like healthcare and motor
vehicle services.
Present Situation
Consumers' assessment of current
business conditions was slightly less positive in July.
- 18.8% of consumers said business conditions were "good," down
slightly from 18.9% in June.
- 18.3% said business conditions were "bad," up from 18.1%.
Consumers' appraisal of the labor market deteriorated in
July.
- 34.1% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 35.5%
in June.
- 16.0% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," up from
15.7%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers
were more optimistic about the short-term business
conditions outlook in July.
- 14.8% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up
from 13.2% in June.
- 16.7% expected business conditions to worsen, down from
17.6%.
Consumers' assessment of the short-term labor market
outlook was less negative in July.
- 14.5% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from
13.1% in June.
- 16.7% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 18.3%.
Consumers' assessment of their short-term income
prospects was less pessimistic in July.
- 15.6% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down
from 16.2% in June.
- 11.6% expected their incomes to decrease, also down from
12.3%.
Assessment of Family Finances and Recession
Risk
- Consumers' assessment of their Family's Current Financial
Situation weakened in July.
- Consumers' assessment of their Family's Financial
Situation going forward was less optimistic.
- Consumers' Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the
Next 12 Months remains well below its 2023 peak.
Consumers planned to spend less on discretionary services
over the next six months.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an
online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a
technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and
market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and
panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the
preliminary results was July
22.
Source: July 2024 Consumer
Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence
Index® at 10 a.m. ET on
the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the
technical notes to this series are available on The Conference
Board website:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is
the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for
What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan,
not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the
United States.
ConferenceBoard.org.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-still-mixed-in-july-302209894.html
SOURCE The Conference Board