A Technical Look at the French ETF: EWQ - Analyst Blog
15 December 2012 - 12:30AM
Zacks
According to a Reuters report, credit rating agency Fitch has
confirmed its top notch ‘AAA’ credit rating on the French Economy.
Over the current fiscal year, the French economy has been on the
radar of all the rating agencies while facing rating downgrade from
the other two (Standard & Poor and Moody’s), earlier this year
(see 3 Emerging Market ETFs Protected from Global Events).
Stronger European economies like France and Germany have been
under constant pressure to bail out their debt plagued neighbors
which has caused had a massive impact on their own balance sheet.
As a result, the economy has been downgraded twice in the current
fiscal year, first by S&P and later on, less than a month ago,
by Moody’s Investors services.
However, this has not led the French ETF down by any standard as
the French ETF EWQ is looking pretty strong. In fact, analyzing
quarterly performance of the French ETF reveals that it had
performed the best in the 1st quarter of Fiscal 2012 –
the quarter in which it was downgraded by S&P. EWQ added about
12% in the quarter (see France's Credit Downgrade: How Does it
Impact the French ETF?).
Interestingly the ETF is showing similar characteristics on its
second downgrade this quarter. EWQ is up by almost 8% quarter till
date in the final quarter of this fiscal and exhibits impressive
charts.
On December 5th EWQ has surpassed its previous
52-Week high level of $22.87 from its March 2012 lofty levels. EWQ
has surpassed its 50 Day Moving Average line (Blue) after a week of
range bound trading leading up to its rating downgrade.
However, it is quite impressive to see that the ETF has
rebounded from its 100 and 200 Day moving average lines (Red and
Green Lines respectively) indicating strong support.
During the same time its 100 Day Moving Average line had
surpassed the 200 Day moving average line indicating a bullish
reversal and confirming the trend are two very important
factors.
1) The ETF has been making higher highs on 2 consecutive
occasions after 5th December 2012, to be precise $23.04
on 11th December and $23.26 on 12th December, 2) The 100
Day Moving average line is upward rising making a bullish case for
the French ETF (see more in the Zacks ETF
Center).
Still, the ETF is near overbought territory at the present
moment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a reading of
69. This makes a case for a minor technical correction in the
following few trading sessions which has probably started as
indicated by yesterday’s trading session when the ETF slumped a tad
to close at $23.04.
Nevertheless, the charts certainly hint towards the positives,
and investors willing to take a call on EWQ can wait for a few more
sessions to bargain for a good entry point for a further move
higher.
Currently EWQ has a Zacks Rank of 3 or
‘Hold’
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ISHARS-FRANCE (EWQ): ETF Research Reports
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