Portugal ETF Off to a Strong Start: Inside the Surge - ETF News And Commentary
10 December 2013 - 6:03AM
Zacks
Global X added another product to its lineup on November 13 with
its Portugal ETF. This debut was well received by the market as the
country is slowly exiting its bailout program. Further optimism is
being laid by the European economy, which is reviving on reduced
debt worries, strong growth in some key members and firmer
currency.
Investors should note that the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy,
Greece and Spain) countries, often considered the weakest members
in the Euro zone, are showing an impressive turnaround and are
leading the broad European recovery (read: 3 European ETFs Leading
the Recovery).
Better Portugal Economy Trends
After struggling for more than two years, the economic situation is
improving in Portugal aided by two consecutive quarters of growth,
declining unemployment, lower trade deficit and rising consumer
confidence. The economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter followed by
1.1% in the second, while unemployment declined to 15.6% from 16.4%
in the third quarter.
Portugal has initiated a sovereign debt swap in order to fully exit
from the €78 billion European Union-International Monetary Fund
bailout rescue program in June next year. The country exchanged
€6.64 billion ($9 billion) in bonds maturing in 2014 and 2015 for
notes due in 2017 and 2018. This move will reduce the debt
repayment in the country and would spread an air of confidence over
the nation’s future.
In addition, rising tourism and growing exports are driving growth
in the country after years of bailout austerity. Given a bullish
outlook and strengthening fundamentals, the Portuguese government
now expects the economy to shrink 1.8% this year compared to the
previous outlook of a 2.3% decline, and it raised its 2014 growth
outlook from 0.6% to 0.8%.
This bout of optimism and bullish trend helped the new Portugal ETF
to enjoy the first mover advantage in the relatively small nation
of Portugal in this short span (read: Why PIIGS ETFs Are
Outperforming).
This is especially true given that the
Global X FTSE
Portugal 20 ETF (PGAL) added over 4% since its inception
and easily outpaced the broader American and European funds by wide
margins. This suggests the strong positive momentum in the outlook
of this debt-ridden country.
Portugal ETF in Focus
The fund has garnered a small amount of investor interest by
accumulating about $1.6 million in AUM in its first month; though
volume is light. The ETF charges little higher in fees per year of
60 bps (read: Global X Launches First Portugal ETF (PGAL)).
The product tracks the performance of the FTSE Portugal 20 Index,
holding 20 Portuguese stocks in its basket. The index focuses on
the biggest stocks in the nation (or those that primarily derive
their revenues from the country), screening by liquidity and
weighting by modified free-float market capitalization.
The fund is heavily concentrated on the top firm – EDP – at under
20% of total assets, closely followed by Jeronimo Martins and Galp
Energia at 13% each. From a sector perspective, utilities and
consumer services dominate the fund’s portfolio at nearly 26% and
23%, respectively, indicating that the ETF might not be volatile
due to higher allocations to defensive sectors (see: all the
European ETFs here).
Bottom Line
Given the bullish trends and improving confidence, the Portugal ETF
could make for an interesting investment for patient investors who
believe that the worst might be over for the European debt story
and expect good trading ahead (read: 3 Top Ranked Europe ETFs to
Buy Now).
Further, PGAL has room for further upside than the larger PIIGS
member such as Spain and Italy that always have better bailout
prospects anyway. However, growth might be difficult in the near
term as the country is still battling austerity measures, so make
sure to watch this fund closely if you decide to take on this
intriguing market.
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VANGD-FTSE EUR (VGK): ETF Research Reports
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